Omicron news
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Covid: First people in UK hospitals with Omicron variant
The variant accounts for a third of infections in London, Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi says.
www.bbc.co.uk
teuchter
je suis teuchter
He says that previous waves haven't reached more than 30% of the population anywhere - is that true and is it particular to Covid?
ska invita
back on the other side
Why might you lose your job Moaner?
elbows
Well-Known Member
There are problems giving a straightforward answer to that.
For example there is the question of how such things are measured and/or estimated. Its not going to be through routine testing of people for current infection, because there are massive undercounts in that data and testing was especially limited in many places in the first wave. So its going to be estimated via things like antibody testing of blood donors. And the samples may be biased in various ways as a result.
Its also going to vary depending on how much you zoom in, either on subsets of the population or by zooming into a narrower geographical area.
And of course there is the fact that most places had to take extreme measures to reduce the number of people getting infected, in order to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. But obviously there are variations on this theme, especially during the vaccine era where we've seen how many millions of people in the UK have shown up via testing as having caught the virus in the Delta wave over a substantial period of time. That level of infection has been considered tolerable due to the changed hospitalisation ratio that vaccines brought over this time period against the strain dominant at the time.
So when it comes to comparisons with other diseases, we have to take into account what mitigations against the disease were actually bothered with when it came to other diseases vs covid. And we also have to consider the lack of mass testing for most diseases in normal times, meaning most data about how many people were infected with other diseases are vague estimates or assumptions.
When it comes to Covid and your question, I suppose I would suggest studying Manaus as an example where a very large proportion of people were thought to have caught it in their first wave, and where there was a fair amount of reporting on this detail later once the hoped-for herd immunity in that area did not turn out to save them from future woe.
eg look at various detail here: Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
According to Johnson, yeah I know, the UK has at least one death from omicron.
www.mirror.co.uk
Boris Johnson says at least one person has died with Omicron Covid variant
The Prime Minister confirmed 'sadly at least one patient has been confirmed to have died with Omicron' - and refused to rule out more restrictions by Christmas
www.mirror.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also teuchter consider looking at the detail from seroprevalence studies from New York, eg:
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Following the Largest Initial Epidemic Wave in the United States: Findings From New York City, 13 May to 21 July 2020 - PubMed
Based on a large serosurvey in a single US jurisdiction, we estimate that just under one-quarter of NYC adults were infected in the first few months of the COVID-19 epidemic. Given disparities in infection risk, effective interventions for at-risk groups are needed during ongoing transmission.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Numbers
an ting!
I worry about my job a bit, what I do can be done from anywhere in the world and for a lot cheaper too, this was the case pre Covie too tho'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Another angle to consider teuchter is modelling of diseases, and attempts to ascertain what use things like R0 estimates are when making public health decisions. Because there is considered to be a relationship between things like R and the attack rate.
eg: Unraveling R0: Considerations for Public Health Applications
With that in mind, I doubt it is a good idea to go looking for overly simplistic assumptions about a single maximum potential attack rate for Covid, given large differences between variants. Although care should also be taken to appreciate the difference between R0 and other versions of R.
eg: Unraveling R0: Considerations for Public Health Applications
With that in mind, I doubt it is a good idea to go looking for overly simplistic assumptions about a single maximum potential attack rate for Covid, given large differences between variants. Although care should also be taken to appreciate the difference between R0 and other versions of R.
elbows
Well-Known Member
A little bit of early vaccine-status data for Omicron cases discovered in Denmark so far. I would want to be aware of far more details about their vaccination programme, vaccines used and schedule between doses, booster campaign etc, as well as details of demographics of Omicron cases in Denmark so far, before trying to apply any conclusions from this data to other countries.
From a report at https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-12122021-k29d
From a report at https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-12122021-k29d
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
i work at a uni. i dunno, continued covid means they can't recruit as many students (nearly half are recruited from overseas)/hold as many events etc, therefore profits fall, therefore cuts.
i'm 90% sure it won't happen, but that doesn't stop the occasional pang of worry.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
popped into a bookshop at lunchtime and chatted to the owner about the virus for a bit. they were quite sure there'd not be a lockdown over this one. me, i think they might be too optimistic. certainly if we're looking at say 75-100k infections a day and a 1-2% hospitalisation rate i feel a lockdown's on the cards.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
No, although we shouldn't take too much from one case.
ska invita
back on the other side
One projection was a million cases by the end of the month then two million not long after that!! cant see how you cant have a lockdown , adn that from Sajid Javid!!
Rapid infection rate of omicron Covid variant is causing concern, as UK braces for 1 million cases
"The omicron data is enormously worrying," immunologist Danny Altmann told CNBC, pointing to the U.K's 2.5-day doubling time of cases.
There should be one now of course, but just as last December, everything most be open so xmas trade can happen.
Id bet on a January lockdown
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh january suits me better than december - i hope spooks reading this can pass that up the ladderOne projection was a million cases by the end of the month then two million not long after that!! cant see how you cant have a lockdown , adn that from Sajid Javid!!
Rapid infection rate of omicron Covid variant is causing concern, as UK braces for 1 million cases
"The omicron data is enormously worrying," immunologist Danny Altmann told CNBC, pointing to the U.K's 2.5-day doubling time of cases.www.cnbc.com
There should be one now of course, but just as last December, everything most be open so xmas trade can happen.
Id bet on a January lockdown
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Reckon the government is with you, but omicron may have an opinion.
ska invita
back on the other side
the government dont care about the viruses opinon
this is when we came out of lockdown last year so as to "do xmas"
100% theyre doing the same thing again
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
"they" don't care, as long as you "spend, SpEnD ! SPEND !!!" in the lead up to the so-called festive period. That's hat their paymasters want to happen.
I know from a few years spent working in shops, almost 3/4 of turnover happens in the last 1/4 of the year [made up from the late October to Early January period].
ska invita
back on the other side
well exactly - some retailers loses money all year and make all profits over this periid
it would be a financial disaster to shut down the economy at this time of year, which also means jobs and livelihoods
i dont think its a straightforward call to make
but its clear their decisions are made to be popular (save xmas etc), to not spend state money, and to downplay risks that lead to this moment in first place - theres a lot more that could be done right now without shutting shops
prunus
Tick tock.
It’s entirely expected and doesn’t change the outlook at all.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I don't think it's expected that a death would typically be one day after a hospital admission. It can happen, but it's not just the usual way of things.
Otoh, I don't think it's clear that the hospital admission was one day prior. It could have been, but it may have been somebody already admitted testing positive for omicron.
Last edited:
prunus
Tick tock.
Was it one day post admission? I hadn’t read that. All the hospitalisations tested positive before or on admission (ie it wasn’t somebody already admitted testing positive for omicron.)
What I meant was, hospitalisations and deaths from omicron are entirely expected and the fact that they’re happening shouldn’t change one’s assessment of the danger.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Depends how far wide of the mark some peoples assessment of Omicron has been so far.
prunus
Tick tock.
Fair! Shouldn’t change a sensible data-driven assessment then perhaps!
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Nobody can book at the moment because the whole system is borked by massive demand. Likely result of Johnson's 'massive acceleration' will therefore be, um, fewer people getting boosters.
