Liz Truss’s time is up

[agricola]

It's a nice idea, but I find it hard to believe that an establishment that took such a scorched earth approach to Corbyn's electoral threat would have started to play nice once he was in power.

The establishment would absolutely have gone after him, but whether the City would have is another thing. IMHO they'd probably have gone along with it because of the money HMG would be spending and the fact that his government would start generating assets again (which could subsequently be privatized under a different regime).

 

[belboid]

I didnt make any reference to a deep state set up which is nonsense: and they are still parasites

Thanks for the amazing insight. Do you have an actual point?

 

[Larry O'Hara]

There are such different forces at play in your two scenarios (one imagined and one all too real), that you are comparing apples with lamp posts.

A Corbyn/McDonnell Labour govt in 2019 would have had a very hard won democratic mandate behind it (and all the millions of people that requires). Truss has 80,000 and falling disgruntled Conservative Party members.

None of which would guarantee the imagined social democratic victors of 2019, victory against the City/IMF/Media/OBR today; but they would be able to say to their supporters and detractors alike, look we've done it once already (at least in relation to the media, the City and possibly the IMF if not the OBR) in getting into government.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

Democratic mandate: Allende had one too…

 

[Knotted]

I suppose johnson had the ultimate fair wind behind him - Labour's left and right had fought to a standstill, which was overland with a brexit 'policy' that was different shades of 'I know you lot voted for it, but we daren't actually have a policy'. May was similarly stuck with a stoical failure to achieve anything at all on brexit. But 'GET BREXIT DONE' was still the ultimate slogan, a communication about cutting through all the shite and not being like the rest of them. All of that, deeply cynical as it was - and something that brought in a fucking vile PM - still had a political beauty. Johnson had a real sense of the moment, which reached into former Labour heartlands. It may well have been a one off and those working class voters might well have abstained in 2024 or gone back to Labour, even without partygate. But still, the comparison with truss is pretty stark. As you say, her ideological package is pretty much an answer to a problem that didn't exist and in circumstances very different to 1979. It's as if some cathedral gets a new bonkers bishop who wants to reintroduce scourging amongst the congregation. The rest of the vicars and vergers go along with it, till they see that half the flock have gone to the Methodists down the road (although Gerald the choirmaster tried it and bled to death).

I agree with this but there is a small but possibly significant factor that this misses. Both May and Johnson distanced themselves from hardline neo-liberal ideology. May abortively tried to resurrect a one nation Toryism, Johnson talked about leveling up and applied a pork barrel "vote for us for investment" stance. Combined with Brexit policy the Tories have been making in roads into working class territory and renewed their flagging portion of the vote. Not only has Truss reversed this strategy and combined this reversal with a disastrous economic policy that's alienated more middle class voters as well, but the likely Tory alternative leaders are also hardline ideologues albeit perhaps not quite as stupid as Truss.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Thanks for the amazing insight. Do you have an actual point?

Yes: ignorant aggressive posts like yours are tedious

 

[killer b]

I mean whatever it's all fantasy politics anyway, but it seems an odd thing to be so confident about. Personally I think anyone with an interest in a politics that goes beyond the narrow confines of the current orthodoxy should be watching what's going on atm and working out how you'd actually manage this kind of market discipline, even if this is a particularly glaring example of how not to. I think a few meetings where you talk nice to fund managers is probably not really enough tbh

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The establishment would absolutely have gone after him, but whether the City would have is another thing. IMHO they'd probably have gone along with it because of the money HMG would be spending and the fact that his government would start generating assets again (which could subsequently be privatized under a different regime).

I don't doubt that there are significant numbers of city types who'd actively approve it if the UK government announced a programme of targeted public investment covered by relatively modest tax rises. That's an actual growth plan.

It's the kind of thing the social democratic govt of Portugal has been trying to do recently. The markets haven't exploded on them for it.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Democratic mandate: Allende had one too…

Which is why I said no guaranteed win. It also reasserts my point about the difference in the two scenarios...so thanks for that.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Rob Ray]

They were part of the coalition that hobbled Corbyn before he got close, whether they'd have been more or less angry if he'd succeeded in winning than they are with the current lot is a bit of a moot point. They're busily trying to get their way now, and would have done (and did) previously. The rest is speculation on the detail.

 

[Karl Masks]

Absolute shambles of a PMQs for Truss. I give her days now. Starmer was crap but still absolutely wiped the floor with her.

it was like watching a tory child regurgitate talking points from the Ladybird Book of Free Markets

 

[WhyLikeThis]

 

[brogdale]

Also posted in Polling thread...quite an achievement from La Truss...

 

[Raheem]

Also posted in Polling thread...quite an achievement from La Truss...

Changes vs last election, so not entirely down to Truss, though.

 

[redsquirrel]

It wouldn't have happened. McDonnell made sure to be speaking to the City &c so even if they didn't agree with what he was planning they knew what to expect and would have been able to prepare. Kwarteng blindsided everyone.

This is hilariously naive.
The idea that any strong social democratic, let alone socialist, programme would not have to be made in opposition to the Bank of England, IMF, experts etc is both absurd and deeply ahistorical.

See Greece, see Italy (the IMF, FT, EU all supporting the technocratic unelected Draghi), see South America. Capital may not be in favour of Truss's plans, indeed it may even favour renewed investment but there is a big difference between investment for capital and transferring wealth and power to labour.

 

[maomao]

Also posted in Polling thread...quite an achievement from La Truss...

Is there a solid definition of blue wall?

 

[brogdale]

Changes vs last election, so not entirely down to Truss, though.

Good point, well made.

That said, the lass done well...

 

[brogdale]

Is there a solid definition of blue wall?

Not that I know of but, FWIW, here's the Redfield & Wilton attempt at defining a 'Blue-wall' seat:

 

[brogdale]

Interesting observation from Coates; when a PM with a majority of 70 (ish?) sees a 3 line whip fail to wrangle 120 MPs....hmmm

 

[Karl Masks]

I'm just watching PMQs. Is she actually mentally ill? And I don't want to offend people who are btw. But I'm serious. She seems totally crazy and at times incomprehensible. It must be baffling to face up to that for Starmer, who for all his faults is very smart and highly eloquent, given his background as a leading prosecutor. It's painful.

She's just been elevated to a position she cannot cope with

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm just watching PMQs. Is she actually mentally ill? And I don't want to offend people who are btw. But I'm serious. She seems totally crazy and at times incomprehensible. It must be baffling to face up to that for Starmer, who for all his faults is very smart and highly eloquent, given his background as a leading prosecutor. It's painful.

the other day you were on about dr coffey drinking and smoking, and deriding her for that. now you're suggesting that - on the basis of your extensive experience, no doubt - that liz truss is mentally ill. you're very big on tory health. perhaps if you imagine the hapless truss less as a mentally ill woman and more as someone who realises too late that they've achieved a position for which they have neither talent nor capacity, with all the stress and unhappiness for them that might entail, you might be nearer the mark. i don't know what it is with you and having a pop at tories for what you think about their health, when you might better attack their competence and indeed their politics. perhaps you'll tell me.

 

[maomao]

Interesting observation from Coates; when a PM with a majority of 70 (ish?) sees a 3 line whip fail to wrangle 120 MPs....hmmm

Is it not just the case that it wasn't controversial at all and they knew it would pass easily?

 

[brogdale]

Is it not just the case that it wasn't controversial at all and they knew it would pass easily?

Maybe, but maybe also some sort of metric of the challenge that she'll face?

 

[Pickman's model]

She's just been elevated to a position she cannot cope with

tbh i cannot imagine a position with which she could cope

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe, but maybe also some sort of metric of the challenge that she'll face?

if this was a three line whip you have to wonder about the use of the measure under her leadership, if as maomao says this was so uncontroversial and expected to pass easily. i don't follow when three line whips are issued, but i thought they were for things which were really important to the government and for which they required the support of all their mps

 

[Supine]

Sounds like the 1922 went well for her

 

[Cerv]

you can see from that chart that Labour were voting in favour of it too.
I really doubt the Tory whips were overly bothered about getting out the vote. no danger of it failing.


for anyone interested, it's 2nd reading on the Identity and Language (Northern Ireland) Bill
the DUP are the four votes against.

 

[kebabking]

The whole thread from the 22 is worth reading. Open contempt displayed - laying into her, chatting while she was speaking...

 

[SpookyFrank]

Q: "Ms Truss, do you agree with Mr Rees-Mogg that the mini-budget had nothing to do with the markets tanking?

A: "People were facing spiralling energy bills. This government has acted decisively to help these ordinary people facing spiralling energy bills."

Q: "OK, well that wasn't the question asked but moving on. Can you offer a guarantee that there won't be huge cuts in public sector spending?"

A: "People were facing spiralling energy bills. This government has acted decisively to help these ordinary people facing spiralling energy bills."

Q: "Are you OK? Would you like a cup of tea and a nice sit down?"

A: "People were facing spiralling energy bills. This government has acted decisively to help these ordinary people facing spiralling energy bills."

Is this real? I can't tell what's a piss take and what's real any more

 

[Pickman's model]

Is this real? I can't tell what's a piss take and what's real any more

as i understand it the current administration is a live enactment of the thick of it, though i suppose it'd really be the thicker of it

 

[cupid_stunt]

Is there a solid definition of blue wall?

Worthing was considered to be blue wall, yet back in May, Labour took control of the borough council for the first time ever.