Liz Truss’s time is up
- Thread starter Dogsauce
- Start date
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Just had another look, odds now 4/1 but they'll only allow a 25 quid bet
I still think the Tories will get back in
elbows
Well-Known Member
I agree that I cant see how it makes any sense for Truss to call an early election. Unless she has a massive change of fortunes, its more likely that such a thing would only be mentioned in terms of it being used as a desperate threat to trigger an election unless the party falls into line behind her, and if that threat came from the Truss camp it would likely be seen as a bluff. If it was part of the thinking of those tories seeking to remove her, it would be along the lines of them trying to find a mechanism for her removal that was able to bypass this threat rather than trigger it.
More broadly and with no regard to the current Truss context, I dont know as I fully agree with you about early elections being the exception rather than the rule. There were a bunch of elections in the last century that history regards as being 'snap elections', though nowhere near enough to count as the majority of them, thats true. But if I include elections held after 4 years rather than 5, quite a few more show up - Thatcher and Blair both indulged in these didnt they?
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
Going after 4 years seems to be better for the incumbent government. There is possibly an advantage in calling an election when things seem to be going reasonably well, rather than risking being caught out by an unexpected shitstorm when there's no option to delay an election.
Sitting out the full 5 years can be spun (by whichever party is then in opposition) as being 'clinging to office' / 'afraid of calling an election'.
Quite a few elections since 1945 have been called after 4 years - 1955, 1959, 1970, 1974, 1983, 1987, 2001, 2005.
Of these, only 1970 and 1974 were lost by the previous government.
Elections after 5 years were held in 1964, 1979, 1992, 1997, 2010 and 2015.
Of these, only 1992 and 2015 were won by the previous government, the 1992 result came as something of a surprise to many, 2015 was after the fixed term parliament act and again many of the polls (up to and including the exit polls) had predicted at least another hung parliament.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The fixed term parliament act still makes me laugh about how blatantly it was brought in just to deal with the particular circumstances of the moment, eg to stop endless speculation about the coalition collapsing etc. And yet it was presented with a straight face as the way things would be done from then on. Its demise once circumstances changed was entirely unsurprising.
story
Changing the facts
Gammon will be exploding across the UK.
No 10 sidelines Suella Braverman in bid to relax immigration rules
Exclusive: Business leaders told to ignore Home Office and lobby other ministers in their efforts to build case for changewww.independent.co.uk
So at this point it looks like the best way to get policy through is to make an announcement to the contrary.
It’s like someone told her to “go swivel“ and she’s taken it as a directive.
Supine
Newt Member
I think she's still a LibDem, and decided to become a fifth columnist to have a go at destroying the tory party. Go Liz
Tim Farron has said the same
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Also 1950 was a five-year term (well, 4 and a half), won by the previous govt.
If you include all elections since 1945, you have six parliaments going to five years and 12 being cut short early, four of them cut short really early.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
True. Of the four parliaments cut very short (2 years or less), two involved minority govts and the biggest majority was Cameron's 15.
The lesson there is that it's fair enough to call an election with a minority govt - the two times it's happened, it's led to the incumbent winning a majority - but it is foolish to call an early election if you have a majority already - the two times that has happened, the majorities have disappeared.
My guess is that Truss will cling on right to the end. Don't see how she can call an election now as she's bound to lose it. But if the tories decide to get rid of Truss, I think they'll find it very hard to resist calls for an early election.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yeah that's where the majority comes in. It's a big one in that respect. It would require 40-odd tories to rebel. That's a lot. If I were a betting person, I'd be betting on Truss clinging on and a 2024 election.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
How rational and calculating a person is Liz Truss, and her cabinet mates? If they can manufacture a crisis so easily and so quickly in such a short time, what else are they capable of? Until we have more experience of the new government's policies and intentions, and how events might unfold, there's little point speculating. In 6 months time it'll be another matter.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Well we live in remarkable times, but since 1945 at least, nobody has ever called an early election without thinking they have a good chance of winning it.
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
Well I just seen that the pound is down 9% against the dollar atm
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
TBF that "near 80 majority" may be nothing like that in reality - yes, they are Tories but the amount of support she thinks she has probably explains the rapid u-turns over various issues. Then there is her internal opposition having the helpful precedent of what Baker and the ERG did (ie: have a small number of people get a disproportionate amount of influence because they could block anything they didn't like).
May bottled out of a direct confrontation with such types over her Brexit deal (where she should have told them it was her deal or no Brexit, not her deal or no deal), but I think Truss is much more likely to gesture herself into a confrontation with them via an early GE (when she can at least control who stands, as Johnson did in 2019). Yes, they'll all get wiped out but provided her side remain in control of the party they will probably accept that - they'll be able to come up with all sorts of nonsense and will (sadly inevitably) bounce back within a few years.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
I’m amazed that they won’t take any amount of money you want to donate to the bookies. I agree with those who believe that the polls will narrow at some point. But the Tories are done. They are internally divided and this will bubble to the surface regularly. They have abandoned governing and reoriented as a sect talking to - and acting for - a very narrow section of the electorate. They have declined into a nostalgia act committed to re-enacting the 1980’s and fighting battles that capital does not require it to.
They have elected a leader who is dead in the water already. Scotland, Wales, the ‘red wall’ and the cities and student areas are gone, the libs will challenge in the south west. The media and representatives of capital have increasingly become vocal in their view that it’s time for change.
I’ll take a £50 bet with you that the Tories do not win the next GE, will not be the largest party and will not win the popular vote. Winner donates to a trade union hardship fund of their choice?
ska invita
back on the other side
well she wanted to do the full thatcher tribute act...
friedaweed
Me and me girl named Jane
Can I bring you attention to the Friedaweed union of hardship funds which you can acquire the sort code and account number for once you have given me your paypal account details...
billy_bob
Air of bewilderment model's own
Guardian is reporting she's on the verge of climbing down over real-terms benefits cuts. Potentially two big u-turns in as many weeks, both over things Tories traditionally approve of. This really has the feel of late-period Major or Brown era now - yes, they may claw their way back from the worst of it over two years, but it still feels terminal.
ska invita
back on the other side
Ive never really understood the OMG A U-TURN thing...so what if someone does a uturn? Obviously personally glad the latest nightmare policy is backtracked on, but outside the westminster bubble who cares that a uturn has taken place?
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
The real-terms benefits cuts one especially, it just screams weakness.
I mean this is first-year Tory stuff and in normal times they would absolutely and easily sell that to people - "why should people on benefits see them keep place with inflation whilst people in work don't see their wages increase by that amount, keeping the two linked is fair to all, state benefits will still increase, the economy can't afford this whilst we are supporting families with their energy bills etc etc etc" - and if she had any actual support in the Parliamentary party they would do it.
In fact not doing it will probably cause even more problems than fighting her opponents on this issue will do; she'll be "betraying Tory values" and pissing off her own supporters in order to fail to placate her enemies.
WhyLikeThis
Something, something, something
Ming
I shot a man in Reno...
It reminds me of the deliberate limits of a haiku. Three words. I’m going with ’Make driving fast!’. Why? Don’t know.
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
I've certainly often thought "surely we want people to be able/willing to change their minds?", but I think there's those kind of u-turns and there's "simply don't know what they're doing, making it up as they go along, judgement of a dead vole" u-turns.
One is deciding to take a different road, one is drunk at the wheel, veering wildly all over the road endangering others.
billy_bob
Air of bewilderment model's own
Yes and no. Obviously the pragmatic response to this one, like the last one, is 'well, thank fuck - things would've been even worse if they'd gone ahead with it.' But I don't think governments are generally rewarded for not doing shit things they shouldn't have proposed in the first place either. And in a more nebulous way it just increases the general sense that this is a bunch of people who don't know what they're doing and, perhaps more importantly in electoral terms, don't have any kind of read on the country's mood.
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