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Liz Truss’s time is up

Wilf said:
I think that would be the outcome if they found a way to get sunak in. Trouble is, given that she didn't resign last week after she killed the markets, I don't see how that happens now.
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There will probably be more dramatic events and unforced errors that offer further opportunities for the tories to ditch her. But I wouldnt want to have to try to predict them, or exactly what mechanism they will use to get rid of her, or the timing, far in advance of it actually happening.

I wouldnt want to predict what event or error would trigger this either, there are plenty to choose from. It could be energy, it could be the economy, it could even still be Covid/the NHS under certain scenarios if she tries to resist stuff that the broader establishment would still deem necessary at the time if certainly gloomy winter wave scenarios/combinations of covid and flu came to fruition in a rather intense manner.
 
Wilf said:
I think you are right in the sense that a space has opened up for someone/something like starmer, by virtue of being 'the other party' and also not scaring the horses - not even knowing how to scare the horses. I suspect his delivery and performance has/will improve also. He's been like a deer in the headlights the last few months, but he certainly can get better, basically, getting back to being forensic kieth. A bit of confidence won't exactly work wonders, but could get him to the point where he's able to mount an effective attack.
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Yeah the 'safe pair of hands' and 'not ideological' cards could work for him under these conditions, against such a deranged opponent who is so willing to go so far out on an exposed limb as Truss is.

Keir calm and carry on is not a prospect I can get excited about, but people might prefer it to Truss's not so subtle blend of excitement and excrement.
 
elbows said:
There will probably be more dramatic events and unforced errors that offer further opportunities for the tories to ditch her. But I wouldnt want to have to try to predict them, or exactly what mechanism they will use to get rid of her, or the timing, far in advance of it actually happening.

I wouldnt want to predict what event or error would trigger this either, there are plenty to choose from. It could be energy, it could be the economy, it could even still be Covid/the NHS under certain scenarios if she tries to resist stuff that the broader establishment would still deem necessary at the time if certainly gloomy winter wave scenarios/combinations of covid and flu came to fruition in a rather intense manner.
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I suppose I'm gnawing away at the frayed link between policy failure/crises and the tory party actually motivating itself to bin truss off. They must just be too traumatised to do the necessary, which means things might just play out for another 2 years.
 
agricola said:
I don't think he is - this collapse in the government is almost entirely self-inflicted, they aren't being routed because Sir Kier has forensically pulled all the rugs out from under them. If (when) she is binned off and replaced by Sunak I think the Tory polling goes up by a minimum of 10% overnight.
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I think you're right, but Sunak isn't the only contender or even the most popular one amongst party members. They'd have Johnson back in a flash, and he knows it. I don't know what effect it'd have on polling but he'd poll better than Truss.
 
Wilf said:
I suppose I'm gnawing away at the frayed link between policy failure/crises and the tory party actually motivating itself to bin truss off. They must just be too traumatised to do the necessary, which means things might just play out for another 2 years.
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I cant bring myself to think of the entire 2 years as a single lump, I think I'll break it down into 6 month chunks and only consider one of those at a time. Im not sure I really believe in the concept of the party being taumatised, so I'll focus on other considerations:

Dont rush to get rid of her in the first 6 months. Theres a bunch of bad events that could happen in the next 6 months, let her own those, and watch to see whether she can actually manage to dodge some bullets or whether she treads on a mine. If she treads on a mine then it will be easier to get rid of her, and the next leader wont be tainted by those events. Can also use that period to further test how weak she is, how easy it will be for MPs to get her to back down from certain specific extreme policies.
 
Couple of stories about tory MPs and Police Commissioners saying cannabis should be class A "just as harmful as cocaine and crack" :eek: I wonder if she'll try to slip that through.
 
Surely we need to look at how the table stands ten games into the season before thinking about sacking the manager. Even if she is playing a ballboy up front and instructing the players to only shoot at our own goal.
 
two sheds said:
Couple of stories about tory MPs and Police Commissioners saying cannabis should be class A "just as harmful as cocaine and crack" :eek: I wonder if she'll try to slip that through.
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For now I'm assuming that was just the usual conference fringe shit designed to energise a portion of their base, not something that will actually go anywhere.

And enforcement based on such a rule change would compete with limited police resources that the government seem keener to claim will be redirected towards actually taking burglaries seriously.

Besides, the enemies of home grown are surely a part of the anti-growth coalition that Truss has declared war on ;)
 
JimW said:
Surely we need to look at how the table stands ten games into the season before thinking about sacking the manager. Even if she is playing a ballboy up front and instructing the players to only shoot at our own goal.
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What should be 11 v 11 turns into one team playing against itself as the manager urges the spectators to invade the pitch
 
elbows said:
For now I'm assuming that was just the usual conference fringe shit designed to energise a portion of their base, not something that will actually go anywhere.

And enforcement based on such a rule change would compete with limited police resources that the government seem keener to claim will be redirected towards actually taking burglaries seriously.

Besides, the enemies of home grown are surely a part of the anti-growth coalition that Truss has declared war on ;)
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Don't bet on it with Cruella Braverman
 
emanymton said:
www.theguardian.com

Ministers back free train travel for military to remembrance services after outcry

Exclusive: former veterans minister Johnny Mercer and others had condemned plans to scrap free travel
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

OK they are actively trying to fuck off their own core supporters and loose the next election I'm sure of it now.

I wonder how long before they u-turn on this?
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Only took about 2 hours for a uturn? Impressive.
Article updated at 23.58 now says
The government has vowed to guarantee free rail travel for military personnel to attend remembrance services this year after facing criticism over moves to scrap the offer.

Proposed plans to stop the free train travel after the government decided the cost would be “too great” had sparked an outcry and calls for a U-turn from the former veterans minister Johnny Mercer and others.
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Missing from my 'break it down into 6 month chunks' thing earlier was some of the action that might be seen in terms of her falling out with cabinet colleagues who are supposed to be her close allies. Some of those could easily end up counting as her treading on a mine if she insists on operating in cloud cuckoo land and really pisses them off. For example one newspaper is making a big deal about her blocking the energy saving advice to households, with emphasis on how much of a row she has had with Rees-Mogg about this.
 
Wilf said:
I think that would be the outcome if they found a way to get sunak in. Trouble is, given that she didn't resign last week after she killed the markets, I don't see how that happens now.
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That's the worst fear for Labour. The one saving grace that would block it...is Boris. Would he step aside for Rishi? Probably not as he clearly thinks he'll be back in when this all blows over, and Truss is playing right in to his hands, but a Sunak term could go on for years.

Another interesting insight I'll repeat here off the News Agent Podcast...These guys were doing focus groups ("What do you thnk of leaders, and why" etc), and they were really surprised at how universal the antipathy to Starmer is. They don't trust him. Not just the sentiment in 1 or 2 groups but lots of them. He has a real problem. And the poll swings really are an ABC vote on steroids.

(I don't mind him as much as most, so I think much of this is successful RW media framing - his biggest crime for me is just being a bit wet and uninspiring, but anyways...)
 
If it walks like a LibDem anti monarchist sleeper agent, talks like a LibDem anti monarchist sleeper agent...

...Those who want to reverse Brexit must have their hopes right up :thumbs:
 
Ted Striker said:
That's the worst fear for Labour. The one saving grace that would block it...is Boris. Would he step aside for Rishi? Probably not as he clearly thinks he'll be back in when this all blows over, and Truss is playing right in to his hands, but a Sunak term could go on for years.

Another interesting insight I'll repeat here off the News Agent Podcast...These guys were doing focus groups ("What do you thnk of leaders, and why" etc), and they were really surprised at how universal the antipathy to Starmer is. They don't trust him. Not just the sentiment in 1 or 2 groups but lots of them. He has a real problem. And the poll swings really are an ABC vote on steroids.

(I don't mind him as much as most, so I think much of this is successful RW media framing - his biggest crime for me is just being a bit wet and uninspiring, but anyways...)
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He is pretty chilled with racism, misogyny and bullying in the party so there is also that.
 
I can't see that happening unless there's a (parliamentary) vote of no confidence

And can't see that many tory MP's having much enthusiasm for a general election any time soon

Does she have the power to call a general election when she likes? If so, could see her threatening that if the MPs get close to a (party) vote of no confidence as a 'fuck it, i'm going to take as many of you as possible with me' thing...
 
Puddy_Tat said:
I can't see that happening unless there's a (parliamentary) vote of no confidence

And can't see that many tory MP's having much enthusiasm for a general election any time soon

Does she have the power to call a general election when she likes? If so, could see her threatening that if the MPs get close to a (party) vote of no confidence as a 'fuck it, i'm going to take as many of you as possible with me' thing...
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The fix term Parliament act has been repealed so yes she can call an Election any time she wants
 
Looks like they're circling the wagons post conference

Cabinet ministers urge Tory MPs to unite behind Liz Truss​

Four cabinet ministers have urged fellow Conservatives to get behind Prime Minister Liz Truss, after a week of open disagreement within the party. They warn the party must unite or it risks ending up in opposition. Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt are among those to have written opinion pieces in Sunday's newspapers.
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Bingoman said:
If next week goes badly in Parliament I can see Truss calling an Election soon because she clearly cant control her MPs or her cabinet
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Sorry but this is twaddle. Why do people have these mad ideas about parties calling elections. I know the last two GEs have been early but those are the exceptions not the rule. And they were called early because the government thought it was well placed

If I was forced to bet now I'd bet against a Conservative government after the next GE, but it is harder for the polls to be worse than at present (though I suspect if any GE was called there'd be a reasonably sharp move back to the Tories). But there is still two years to go - different stories will come and go, Labour may make a fuck up, some black swan event may occur - I would be surprised if there was not some move back to the Tories.

EDIT: Also there is the boundary review to go through next year, which could help the Tories - they get a number of notional gains
 
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