Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[frogwoman]

7

 

[Belushi]

7 lol? They're beginning to lose their core vote.

 

[embree]

7!

 

[Fedayn]

39/43/7



Govt approval -20

I take it that's COn/Lab/Lib?

Which poll is this from BA?

 

[butchersapron]

Yep. Yougov daily tracker.

 

[shagnasty]

I thought 7% is what they would bottom out on but it could go lower

 

[Fedayn]

Fuckin'hell..... I don't think anyone expected it to get this bad!!

I hope Clegg likes KFC cos there's a fuck load of chickens coming home to roost.

 

[Sgt Howie]

Still further to fall.

 

[butchersapron]

Taken from UK polling report:

Another by-elections of some interest yesterday:

Witney Town Council – David Cameron’s constituency,

Witney East Ward

Tory councillor disqualified for non attendence. Tories decided not to field a candidate in the by-election because all the seats are up in May 2011, this had the effect of giving Lib Dems a free run –

Result:

Labour 66.7%
Lib Dems 17.1%
Greens 16.3%

Swing from Libs to Lab of 15.9%, almost identical to the swing from Libs to Lab in Windsor/Maidenhead which was 14.5%

 

[kyser_soze]

7% eh? Only 2% off the margin of error. OOO I wait impatiently for the day that a pollster says 'Lib dem support is so low it's within the margin of error'.

 

[Santino]

Is the Green Party going to become the home of people who want to register their vote for a party that isn't in government and has no chance of being in government, so they can feel pious and smug about things?

 

[butchersapron]

Moe is 3% i think.

 

[belboid]

7% equals 9 seats apparently. Nine! Their worst result for fifty years.

 

[kyser_soze]

Is the Green Party going to become the home of people who want to register their vote for a party that isn't in government and has no chance of being in government, so they can feel pious and smug about things?

I thought that was a natural result of voting for the greens anyway.

 

[kabbes]

7% equals 9 seats apparently. Nine! Their worst result for fifty years.

I'd be willing to bet that it would actually translate to no seats at all.

 

[kabbes]

Is the Green Party going to become the home of people who want to register their vote for a party that isn't in government and has no chance of being in government, so they can feel pious and smug about things?

Works for me.

 

[belboid]

I'd be willing to bet that it would actually translate to no seats at all.

Naah, four or five almost defintely will remain, Scottish Highland ones, couple of others. Clegg would probably be safe, if it weren't for the fact that he's Clegg.

 

[kabbes]

Honestly, will they still really be getting the 40%+ of votes that they need in any given seat to win that seat?

Even in the South-West, their vote has collapsed below 30%.

 

[Fedayn]

Naah, four or five almost defintely will remain, Scottish Highland ones, couple of others. Clegg would probably be safe, if it weren't for the fact that he's Clegg.

Well the first big test is the Scottish Elections in May. The Lib Dems have 16 MSPs, 11 constituency and 5 frpom the regional list. The quoted bit below is from an SNP tactical voting blog.... Makes for interesting reading.

I had thought that during the term of this Parliament the Lib Dems might find a narrative of being the reasonable partners in an unpopular coalition but on last night's evidence it will be a tough needle to thread. I am finally beginning to wonder just how hard the Lib Dems will be hit in next year's election and, only somewhat mischievouly, is it worth considering if they could be wiped out entirely?

The Liberal Democrats hold 11 First Past the Post seats with Dunfermline West (maj 1.6%), Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale (maj 2.0%), Edinburgh South (maj 5.9%), Aberdeen South (maj 9.1%), and Ross, Skye & Inverness West (maj 11%) amongst the most vulnerable.

In Central, Lib Dem MSPs were voted in 6th on the list, North East 6th and in the South they were 7th so a net loss of 3 list MSPs wouldn't be too difficult to achieve with a few thousand less votes in each region all things being equal. Furthermore, the single Glasgow Lib Dem MSP could be in jeopardy if Nicola Sturgeon is not voted back into Glasgow Govan as 5 SNP MSPs, 1 Tory MSP and 1 Green MSP could quite easily freeze them out.

A total Lib Dem wipeout is of course unlikely but if Tavish Scott's party are swept back largely to just the Orkney and Shetland Islands, one can only conclude that their decision to be the face of the Tory cuts was a humiliating disaster.

Who votes Lib Dem? People who don't want Labour, don't want the Tories and don't want independence. That's a lot of things that are not wanted. What if those same people don't want cuts that the UK Government is bringing in?

 

[Streathamite]

Honestly, will they still really be getting the 40%+ of votes that they need in any given seat to win that seat?

yes, simply because so many have a HUGE personal vote owing to lib dem MPs being brilliant constituency 'n' community politics types, and cos there are no depths to which LD electoral campaign teams will not sink to get votes. This explains how Simon Hughes first became an MP, how he has kept what should be an uber-safe Labour seat all these years - and why he'll probably keep that seat next time round.

 

[Streathamite]

Taken from UK polling report:

Another by-elections of some interest yesterday:

Witney Town Council – David Cameron’s constituency,

Witney East Ward

Tory councillor disqualified for non attendence. Tories decided not to field a candidate in the by-election because all the seats are up in May 2011, this had the effect of giving Lib Dems a free run –

Result:

Labour 66.7%
Lib Dems 17.1%
Greens 16.3%

Swing from Libs to Lab of 15.9%, almost identical to the swing from Libs to Lab in Windsor/Maidenhead which was 14.5%

in WITNEY??? F-ing holy shitting hell.
I grant you it's only a council ward, turnout probably v poor, but even so that is astonishing.
I always assumed that If Gary Glitter or Ian Huntley stood in that locality for the tories, they'd get in. It's soooo tory it makes you puke.

 

[belboid]

yes, simply because so many have a HUGE personal vote owing to lib dem MPs being brilliant constituency 'n' community politics types, and cos there are no depths to which LD electoral campaign teams will not sink to get votes. This explains how Simon Hughes first became an MP, how he has kept what should be an uber-safe Labour seat all these years - and why he'll probably keep that seat next time round.

It certainly doesn't explain how the hypocritical scumbag first became an MP. Although his most recent actions do mirror that vile hypocrisy rather nicely.

Just under 10% swing to Labour required to lose him his seat. Polls indicating a bigger swing than that at the moment.

 

[shagnasty]

Angus Reid

con 35 lab 40 ldem 12

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

according to that link one maybe two weekend polls for Oldham and Saddleworth

 

[butchersapron]

Sunday Telegraph apparently has this for Oldham

LAB: 46
LIBDEM:29
CON:15

Actual result last time was:

Labour:31.86%
Liberal Democrat:31.63%
Conservative:26.44%

Tories piling onto the lib-dems to prop them up - even with both votes together they wouldn't win. Suspect as the result becomes clear that lib-dem vote will drop as the tories pile back out.

 

[butchersapron]

As i say that, two more Oldham ones come in, so now it looks like this:

ICM
CON 18%(-8)
LAB 44%(+12)
LDEM 27%(-5)

Populus
CON 15%(-11)
LAB 46%(+14)
LDEM 29(-3)

Ashcroft/Telegraph
CON15 (-11)
LAB 46 (+14)
LIBDEM 29 (-3)

Labour have it in the bag, tories propping up lib-dems - for now...

 

[co-op]

As i say that, two more Oldham ones come in, so now it looks like this:

ICM
CON 18%(-8)
LAB 44%(+12)
LDEM 27%(-5)

Populus
CON 15%(-11)
LAB 46%(+14)
LDEM 29(-3)

Ashcroft/Telegraph
CON15 (-11)
LAB 46 (+14)
LIBDEM 29 (-3)

Labour have it in the bag, tories propping up lib-dems - for now...

It has to be said though that the LD vote is holding up remarkably well in all these polls (compared to the general trend of national polls). As you say this is likely to be con voters backing the LD as the anti-labour candidate (the poll shows that 77% of tories would vote for a coalition candidate if that's what they were offered). All the same, predictions of LD meltdown may be on hold for a while. It'll be interesting to see how long tory voters will go on backing up the LD candidate, or whether they will do so at all elsewhere.

 

[ymu]

It has to be said though that the LD vote is holding up remarkably well in all these polls (compared to the general trend of national polls). As you say this is likely to be con voters backing the LD as the anti-labour candidate (the poll shows that 77% of tories would vote for a coalition candidate if that's what they were offered). All the same, predictions of LD meltdown may be on hold for a while. It'll be interesting to see how long tory voters will go on backing up the LD candidate, or whether they will do so at all elsewhere.

That is probably a large part of it, but the LDs had more support there at the last election than they did nationally (on average), so you'd expect their vote % to still be higher there than it is nationally. Also, Labour was the LD's main rival at the election, which means that a lot of the LD votes are anti-Labour, pro-Tory or from-the-right-of-the-party votes, so you wouldn't expect as many of these to have disappeared as have nationally (on average).

 

[butchersapron]

That said, if you remove the 1/3 of tories now tactically supporting them (a figure i think will drop) you have them down in the mid-teens in one of their strongest areas without a lib-dem MP. They won't elect anyone on those figures anywhere.

 

[ymu]

Oh yes, I'm not arguing that their figures look good - quite the opposite.

 

[butchersapron]

That was reply to the post above yours - didn't notice your one was posted in between.