Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[embree]

40/43/8

Coalition approval -18%. Another new low.

Are these YouGov's daily polls for the Sun you're quoting? I'm guessing they are given the frequency of them and the fact that the other organisations have the LDs a little higher usually - though dropping over time all the same.

Edit: just had a look, you are.

 

[embree]

ICM/Guardian latest: 37/39/13

UK Polling Report explains the higher LD scores for ICM & Populus thus:

ICM’s final Guardian poll of the year has topline figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 13%(-1). Changes are from a month ago, but there is no significant change.

The small Labour lead over the Conservatives is now consistent across all the pollsters – the differences between the different companies remains the Lib Dems and, in some cases the others. ICM normally show the highest level of Lib Dem support, YouGov the lowest – a big chunk of the difference is normally down to the reallocation of don’t knows. ICM and Populus reallocate some of the people who say they don’t know how they’d vote in an election tomorrow to the party they voted for last time, currently this tends to increase the reported level of Lib Dem support by a couple of points since, as you’d expect, there are a significant chunk of Lib Dem voters out there who say they aren’t sure what they’d do in an election.

Whichever way you look at it, it's increasingly grim for them

 

[Kaye]

I'm going to crack open a bottle of cheap cava on the day when their poll rating drops low enough to make the entire party a margin of error.

I'm going to laugh if that happens.

 

[Sgt Howie]

It will.

 

[shagnasty]

It,s best to compare polls from the same company ie yougov,icm.The polls are weighted differently ie dont knows they factor in previous voting intentions.it helps with the voters who are shy of saying that vote for an unpopular party

 

[embree]

UK Polling Report's average across recent polls is 39/40/10 for what it's worth

 

[embree]

It,s best to compare polls from the same company ie yougov,icm.The polls are weighted differently ie dont knows they factor in previous voting intentions.it helps with the voters who are shy of saying that vote for an unpopular party

that's right - and as YouGov are polling more often than the others I think they can skew the 'average' I quote above (not sure how UKPR calculates this average but anyway...) However you do it, the trend is pretty clear at the moment - big two are pretty much level pegging, possibly a small Labour lead, and the Lib Dems are shrivelling away into insignificance.

 

[shagnasty]

Here's something to cheer us up

 

[butchersapron]

That latest YG has 4% in Scotland.

Only 13% of lib-dems think Clegg sticks to what he believes in as well. Obviously he has stuck to the brand of neo-liberal extremism he really does believe in but i think we can read that as near 90% of lib-dems thinking that he cannot be trusted.

 

[butchersapron]

Govt approval still heading downwards -19%

40/42/9

 

[shagnasty]

The PAPA an average of polls

***PAPA Latest*** 21/12/2010 37.4 40.0 11.2

 

[butchersapron]

New Angus Reid poll too - blimey:

35/41/9

 

[frogwoman]

 

[embree]

It would seem all the polls are coming into line with YG

 

[embree]

In Germany, the FPD are polling 3%, down from 14.5% in the 2009 election. Centre party in coalition with the right...

 

[grogwilton]

The FDP have at least always sold them selves as free market liberals, they have always been seen as the natural allies of the tory CDU, and have never been shy about it. The Lib Dems on the other hand...

 

[butchersapron]

Here's the AR leaders approval ratings:

Cameron -7 (-4)
Miliband -8 (-4)
Clegg -28 (-11)

 

[butchersapron]

41/42/8

-19%

Still going down.

 

[Refused as fuck]

Still going down.

 

[butchersapron]

Happy as a pig in oh

 

[embree]

YouGov/ ITV Wales Poll 22/12/10

Constituency vote (change is since November)
Lab 44% (nc)
PC 21% (nc)
Con 23% (+2)
Lib 6% (-3)
Other 6% (nc)

Regional vote
Lab 42% (+1)
PC 21% (+1)
Con 22% (+2)
Lib 5% (-4)
UKIP 5% (+1)

 

[butchersapron]

6 and 5%. Bootifull

 

[embree]

Assembly vote is next year isn't it? They'd end up with about three seats if that

 

[where to]

That's a wipeout isn't it? Would be very close to one in Scotland.

 

[embree]

That's a wipeout isn't it? Would be very close to one in Scotland.

yeah, the three seats thing is an estimate of their best chance from someone elsewhere. Could be a complete wipeout

It's getting to the stage where their support is so low people who would otherwise vote for them know they won't get in so will switch to someone with a chance of winning

 

[butchersapron]

I think there will be wipeout in the sw - Laws was the safest, he'll be ok -ish. The rest are totally done by 5000 labour voters walking away - it changes everything.

They took that lib-dem solid vote as theirs for ever, but no, it was always anti-tory. Any lib-dem on the floor could and should have told you that.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Nah. Welsh system means they'd get seats on that %, still take a fucking hammering though. Perhaps only get in on regionals.

 

[butchersapron]

**

 

[embree]

Nah. Welsh system means they'd get seats on that %, still take a fucking hammering though. Perhaps only get in on regionals.

shaky even on regionals though, no? They're about to drop below UKIP...

 

[butchersapron]

it is Christmas...