Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[Streathamite]

What do we think about the possibility of a split, and how soon?

same as 'we' thought on this earlier thread!
do keep up!

 

[The39thStep]

What are the odds on that, anyone know? I might stick a speculative tenner down.

Better bet is number of Sinn Fein seats in the Republic

 

[cointreauman]

Better bet is number of Sinn Fein seats in the Republic

I make you spot on there

The Greens have fucked themselves big time so a few Euros on SF should be an easy win - get it on while the odds are reasonable

C

 

[butchersapron]

42/40/8

Approval -15%

So lib-dems series now is:

6/12 - 10
7/12 - 9
8/12 - 8
9/12 - 11
10/12 - 9
11/12 - 9
12/12 - 9
13/12 - 9
14/12 - 9
15/12 - 8

Time to change the thread title?

 

[shagnasty]

They will bottom at 7% ,any more bets

 

[The39thStep]

I make you spot on there

The Greens have fucked themselves big time so a few Euros on SF should be an easy win - get it on while the odds are reasonable

C

Off topic but here are the SF odds.

3 or under 16/1
4 or 5 12/1
6 or 7 7/1
Exactly 8 10/1
9 or 10 13/2
11 or 12 5/1
13 or 14 7/2
15 or 16 4/1
17 or 18 5/1
19 or 20 13/2
More than 20

 

[kabbes]

The Lib Dems must be in serious danger of becoming the fourth party.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

They will bottom at 7% ,any more bets

Sounds about right.

 

[Sgt Howie]

I can easily forsee polls putting them at 3%. If they drop another couple of points, which they should do after April when the cuts start to bite, it's within the margin of error.

 

[kyser_soze]

Supreme psephology from you on this thread BA, excellent sources.

 

[Streathamite]

Off topic but here are the SF odds.

3 or under 16/1
4 or 5 12/1
6 or 7 7/1
Exactly 8 10/1
9 or 10 13/2
11 or 12 5/1
13 or 14 7/2
15 or 16 4/1
17 or 18 5/1
19 or 20 13/2
More than 20

some tempting odds there...
e2a; which bookie you quoting?

 

[The39thStep]

some tempting odds there...
e2a; which bookie you quoting?

Paddy Power

I was looking a bit harder for Nigel irritables United left alliance Odds but news of that development hasn't reached Paddy power ( either that or he has information that we don't have about them splitting) so there are odd on people not profit and odds on the SP as well. We need a bit of objective info here on where and if SF are going to come up against ULA and what the likely outcome would be if that is the scenario. I have put an initial tenner on 11-12 SF seats untill I get more info.

 

[Streathamite]

excellent, cheers for all that T39S! i'm tempted equally by the 11-12 or 13-14 (tho they are a little tight wityh their odds on the latter option imo)

 

[The39thStep]

excellent, cheers for all that T39S! i'm tempted equally by the 11-12 or 13-14 (tho they are a little tight wityh their odds on the latter option imo)

The key thing here is to ignore what every rosy coloured info Nigel irritable gives us

 

[butchersapron]

41/41/9

Approval -14

That is now a solid sub 10 for the lib-dems. We used to joke about if they would hit -10 before xmas - never mind stay there.

 

[audiotech]

By-election in Spitalfields and Banglatown ward of Tower Hamlets.

Respect gain from Labour with 44.8% of the vote.

Lib Dem vote collpases to 2.2%

http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....talfields_and_banglatown_by_election_1_755771

 

[Streathamite]

The key thing here is to ignore what every rosy coloured info Nigel irritable gives us

ah right, of course he's partisan....

 

[Streathamite]

By-election in Spitalfields and Banglatown ward of Tower Hamlets.

Respect gain from Labour with 44.8% of the vote.

Lib Dem vote collpases to 2.2%

http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....talfields_and_banglatown_by_election_1_755771

That's the fallout from the Lutfur Rahman affair that damaged Labour there

 

[butchersapron]

By-election in Spitalfields and Banglatown ward of Tower Hamlets.

Respect gain from Labour with 44.8% of the vote.

Lib Dem vote collpases to 2.2%

http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....talfields_and_banglatown_by_election_1_755771

Respect 666 (45.4; +22.98)
Lab 553 (37.7; +2.8)
Con 135 (9.2; -2.8)
Green 52 (3.5; -6.6)
LD Fernando North 33 (2.2; -15.4)
Ind 28 (1.9; -1.1)
Majority 113
Turnout 16.83%
Respect gain from Lab
Percentage change is since May 201

 

[butchersapron]

Every libdem lost votes last night = ranging from about -5 to -20%.

 

[butchersapron]

The latest YG (pdf)has a couple of supplementary questions:

It is led by people of real ability:
lib-dems 5%

Its leaders are prepared to take tough and
unpopular decisions
lib-dems 6%

The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind of
society I want
10%

 

[Streathamite]

Respect 666 (45.4; +22.98)
Lab 553 (37.7; +2.8)
Con 135 (9.2; -2.8)
Green 52 (3.5; -6.6)
LD Fernando North 33 (2.2; -15.4)
Ind 28 (1.9; -1.1)
Majority 113
Turnout 16.83%
Respect gain from Lab
Percentage change is since May 201

The LDs used to be dead strong in Tower Hamlets, if the tories are outpolling the by 3 to one in spitalfields (aka gentrificationville), it really is all over
e2a: my bad - five to one

 

[butchersapron]

33 votes! 33!

 

[Refused as fuck]

Tbf, that's 33 more than they were forecast, which is a 100% gain.

 

[butchersapron]

Why you always got to be so tribalist?

 

[stethoscope]

33 votes! 33!

 

[kabbes]

33 more than zero is not a 100% gain.

 

[DotCommunist]

Respect pulling in the satanic vote there

 

[frogwoman]

I saw that

 

[Refused as fuck]

33 more than zero is not a 100% gain.

Yeahiknow. Those were satirical figures. Put your pocket protector away.