Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[co-op]

That said, if you remove the 1/3 of tories now tactically supporting them (a figure i think will drop) you have them down in the mid-teens in one of their strongest areas without a lib-dem MP. They won't elect anyone on those figures anywhere.

I'm really intrigued by this tory vote; it looks a lot like they are responsible for the LD vote holding up in O&S - but why do you think this group will drop? One of the features of English politics to me is the intensely pragmatic nature of the right - and it looks like the tory voters of Oldham are going LD in substantial numbers despite all the frothing of the more ideologically pure tory press who have made clear their opposition to any idea of coalition candidates. If this kind of tory tactical voting is replicated nationally, there are a lot of LDs who will benefit.

Not saying this will happen, but it appears to be happening in Oldham and I don't see especially why it won't elsewhere.

 

[Santino]

It remains to be seen whether people reporting Lib Dem support will actually put a cross in the right box. Huge polling in the General Election didn't translate into votes.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm really intrigued by this tory vote; it looks a lot like they are responsible for the LD vote holding up in O&S - but why do you think this group will drop? One of the features of English politics to me is the intensely pragmatic nature of the right - and it looks like the tory voters of Oldham are going LD in substantial numbers despite all the frothing of the more ideologically pure tory press who have made clear their opposition to any idea of coalition candidates. If this kind of tory tactical voting is replicated nationally, there are a lot of LDs who will benefit.

Not saying this will happen, but it appears to be happening in Oldham and I don't see especially why it won't elsewhere.

One off, they see the need to try and prop up the lib-dems in this particular seat at this particular time even at the expense of their own not unsizable vote. It's pretty clear that it's not worked now so i expect they'll either switch back or stay at home. In a general election in a three-way marginal with a close national vote expected i see no way on earth they'd be prepared to do the same - oldhma or otherwise.

And those tories who are/were prepared to this on a keep labour out basis have been doing this already - they're already counted in that lib-dem vote - there's not really much chance for an expansion of this vote in key seats. You're correct that the tory vote is pragmatic, but it's been pragmatic already and this - where we are today - is all it's managed to deliver.

 

[co-op]

One off, they see the need to try and prop up the lib-dems in this particular seat at this particular time even at the expense of their own not unsizable vote. It's pretty clear that it's not worked now so i expect they'll either switch back or stay at home. In a general election in a three-way marginal with a close national vote expected i see no way on earth they'd be prepared to do the same - oldhma or otherwise.

Well I guess we'll see on Thursday what they'll actually do. But i would never expect tory voters to go LD in the "3 way marginals" you talk of; why would they?, there's everything to gain in voting tory in those circs. I'm talking about cases where it's a clear run-off between labour and the LDs. I'm not saying it will happen, just that what evidence we have from O&S is that this seems to be happening there.

And those tories who are/were prepared to this on a keep labour out basis have been doing this already - they're already counted in that lib-dem vote - there's not really much chance for an expansion of this vote in key seats. You're correct that the tory vote is pragmatic, but it's been pragmatic already and this - where we are today - is all it's managed to deliver.

I wouldn't have thought many tories were voting LD tactically in May 2010 - didn't most people expect that the LDs were closer to Labour than the Cons? I would have certainly thought most tories would have assumed so (and of course a mighty great chunk of the LD vote who consider themselves royally betrayed). Now that Clegg has nailed the LD colours so firmly to the tory mast we have every prospect of a de facto grass roots tory tactical voting phenomenon I'd think - much like the anti-tory one that spontaneously sprung up in 97.

 

[butchersapron]

That's my point - those who would tactically vote lib-dem to stop labour already did so. There's no room for an expansion of that vote as it already exists to its effective limit.

 

[co-op]

That's my point - those who would tactically vote lib-dem to stop labour already did so. There's no room for an expansion of that vote as it already exists to its effective limit.

I see little scope for tactical voting having already taken place (why would a tory have voted LD in May 2010?) - but a lot of scope for tory voters to now start doing this, knowing that they are in effect voting tory when they back the LD candidate in a LD vs Labour run-off.

And - as I have said - the opinion polls in O&S appear to be bearing this out. Whether this turns into a genuine phenomenon (ie actually happens on the day and then generalises to other elections) we shall see.

 

[butchersapron]

I see little scope for tactical voting having already taken place (why would a tory have voted LD in May 2010?) - but a lot of scope for tory voters to now start doing this, knowing that they are in effect voting tory when they back the LD candidate in a LD vs Labour run-off.

And - as I have said - the opinion polls in O&S appear to be bearing this out. Whether this turns into a genuine phenomenon (ie actually happens on the day and then generalises to other elections) we shall see.

To stop labour getting in! There's a long long history of tactical voting - as you seemed to acknowledge in your earlier post about the pragmatic nature of the british electoral right. They've always done it - and they've always done it in seats where it's potentially effective. That's why the results it could achieve have by and large been achieved. (And it's one of the reasons that the lib-dem vote is soft - labour and tory tactical voters making up a substantial section of it). If there's a chance of the tory winning they'll vote tory. If not they'll vote to stop labour. There's not suddenly a new lot of seats where this is the case. It's the same seats in which tactical voting has always gone on (talking of the tory votes here, not labour tactical voters).

 

[co-op]

To stop labour getting in! There's a long long history of tactical voting - as you seemed to acknowledge in your earlier post about the pragmatic nature of the british electoral right. They've always done it - and they've always done it in seats where it's potentially effective. That's why the results it could achieve have by and large been achieved. (And it's one of the reasons that the lib-dem vote is soft - labour and tory tactical voters making up a substantial section of it). If there's a chance of the tory winning they'll vote tory. If not they'll vote to stop labour. There's not suddenly a new lot of seats where this is the case. It's the same seats in which tactical voting has always gone on (talking of the tory votes here, not labour tactical voters).

So - if you are right and large chunks of the tory electorate are already seasoned anti-labour, pro-LD tactical voters (which I doubt, because the LDs/Libs have historically been far closer to labour), how do you explain the O&S data?

It shows a jump in the labour vote - we assume from disgruntled LD voters - a collapse in the tory vote and the LD vote holding up surprisingly well, certainly far better than the national polls would predict. It looks a lot like two things to me; (a) that tory voters have gone over to the LD candidate in large numbers and (b) that this is a new phenomenon, ie they didn't do this in May this year or previously.

 

[butchersapron]

So - if you are right and large chunks of the tory electorate are already seasoned anti-labour, pro-LD tactical voters (which I doubt, because the LDs/Libs have historically been far closer to labour), how do you explain the O&S data?

It shows a jump in the labour vote - we assume from disgruntled LD voters - a collapse in the tory vote and the LD vote holding up surprisingly well, certainly far better than the national polls would predict. It looks a lot like two things to me; (a) that tory voters have gone over to the LD candidate in large numbers and (b) that this is a new phenomenon, ie they didn't do this in May this year or previously.

I didn't say a large section of the tory vote but a section of the tory vote in those seats where a tactical lib-dem vote was potentially effective.. That's a handful, by definition less than 57 and probably about 10-20 tops. That the lib-dems and labour were historically seen as closer than the lib-dems and the tories is neither here nor there. They were/are never going to gain an overall majority but they can/could stop labour gaining an overall majority - and that's what these tactical votes were based on, not closeness of manifestos or actual principles. I'm more than little baffled that this utterly accepted part of historical electoral behaviour is being questioned.

As for Oldham, there's very little to explain - 1/3 of lib-dems have jumped straight over to labour, and a 1/3 of tories are saying they've gone lib-dem. This explains the labour boost (allied with the return of labour boycotters), the tory drop and the smaller drop in lib-dem support. It's tallies exactly with my explanation that the tories will do this this time in this particular seat thorough a wider motivation of propping the coalition, but that they won't and didn't in the general election. It's exactly as my argument says.

 

[Streathamite]

(b) that this is a new phenomenon, ie they didn't do this in May this year or previously.

hardly surprising, voters tend to behave differently in by-elections than they do in GEs, and this is the first Old & sad by-elecxtion for a long, long while, and also this is gthe first big-deal election sincve the coalition was formed

 

[co-op]

. It's exactly as my argument says.

Ok, I get that this is the important thing.

 

[co-op]

hardly surprising, voters tend to behave differently in by-elections than they do in GEs, and this is the first Old & sad by-elecxtion for a long, long while, and also this is gthe first big-deal election sincve the coalition was formed

Yep voters behave differently in bys than in generals. And in this case a section of them - ie a large chunk of the tory vote - appear to be voting LD. That would appear to be because of the coalition govt, right? Interesting phenomenon, perhaps?

 

[where to]

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intention CON 40%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%

- - - - - - - -

Labour are now 8 points ahead of the Tories, according to a ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent. The polling firm have Labour on 42%(+3 since December 19th) and the Conservatives on 34%(-3). The Liberal Democrats on 12% (slightly higher than in recent polls) and have increased their vote share by 1%.

 

[shagnasty]

For a long time the tory vote has been unscathed and only the libs have suffered .that poll for com res show it differently

 

[ferrelhadley]

The petrol price is going to damage the tories with thier base.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting indication from the latest YG tables(pdf) that Clegg and his Orange bookers have so hollowed out their party of left or trad liberal support that they're now down to almost the genuine right-wingers alone - that 8% support is pretty clearly largely right wing. 51% of them would prefer a tory govt led by cameron to 16% who'd prefer a labour govt in a head to head fight. And that right wing vote is always going to be in danger of moving across to the most successful right wing party in electoral history...

 

[Santino]

I wonder if the Yellow Tories have the same demographic profile as Blue Tories, i.e. aging and dying out.

 

[creak]

My perception has always been that the more right-wing LibDems are largely the younger, studenty free marketeers who have embraced neoliberal economics but don't want the old-school Tory baggage over 'social' issues; homosexuality, race, abortion etc. People like moon23, for example.

 

[Santino]

My perception has always been that the more right-wing LibDems are largely the younger, studenty free marketeers who have embraced neoliberal economics but don't want the old-school Tory baggage over 'social' issues; homosexuality, race, abortion etc. People like moon23, for example.

 

[little_legs]

For a long time the tory vote has been unscathed and only the libs have suffered .that poll for com res show it differently

The piece in the Indy claims that although Labour has pulled ahead, they really have nothing to be cheerful about. Poor stupid Clegg, his supporters are running away.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ins-as-labour-pull-ahead-in-poll-2181115.html

 

[kyser_soze]

The piece in the Indy claims that although Labour has pulled ahead, they really have nothing to be cheerful about. Poor stupid Clegg, his supporters are running away.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ins-as-labour-pull-ahead-in-poll-2181115.html

That's such a hideous website, I can barely read it.

 

[little_legs]

i know exactly what you mean

 

[Streathamite]

My perception has always been that the more right-wing LibDems are largely the younger, studenty free marketeers who have embraced neoliberal economics but don't want the old-school Tory baggage over 'social' issues; homosexuality, race, abortion etc. People like moon23, for example.

which makes them almost perfect material for the sort of tory party the Cameroons want; economically rightwing, pretend to care about the poor but don't really, imepccably elightened on issues of gender, race, sexuality etc, and willing to bang the green drum all night long. Really, the only big issue that still divides them is Europe

 

[kabbes]

The Tories have surely, by now, stopped even pretending that they care about the poor, haven't they?

 

[Streathamite]

It certainly doesn't explain how the hypocritical scumbag first became an MP. Although his most recent actions do mirror that vile hypocrisy rather nicely.

well, this bit does;

there are no depths to which LD electoral campaign teams will not sink to get votes.

i left it at that, because I find it difficult to think about that by-election without going wild with rage, and because I thought that would suffice.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

If the Lib Dems stay around 7-8% up until the weekend can we refresh the thread title again please?

 

[London_Calling]

What makes me smile a little is how supremely slippery the Etonians are (and, fwiw, always have been). After all the talk of cuts and student protesting and everything else, they're down a mighty 2% on the General Election - LibDems taking just about the whole hit for them.

They're also now avoiding the burden of most substantial cuts by hitting local government biggest - it'll be local officials who take that hit for them.

 

[butchersapron]

That's the plan - it won't work though. It doesn't take great brains to connect the local to the national - as the local election results since the general election have shown.

 

[London_Calling]

Yep, I probably agree but, until this last poll, they were actually up 1% on the General Election. LOL. (((Nick)))

 

[kyser_soze]

According to the Indy article, Lab even have a 1% lead among the AB group. That's something telling.