Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[Streathamite]

They're also now avoiding the burden of most substantial cuts by hitting local government biggest - it'll be local officials who take that hit for them.

not necessarily. I can only speak for Haringey and Waltham forest but out canvassing and leafletting, I get the strong impression people are well aware this is central govt doing that the councils are powerless about. Haringey are condemned for their usual spinelessness in not fighting the cuts, but they're not blamed for causing them.
e2a: GAAH! just seen BA's #928.

 

[belboid]

Yep, I probably agree but, until this last poll, they were actually up 1% on the General Election. LOL. (((Nick)))

that does indicate a not insignificant loss of people who voted for them in May. They'll have picked up a few points from lib-dems who dont see the point in voting for the monkey

 

[butchersapron]

40/41/7

Coalition approval -18

 

[London_Calling]

Etonians up 4% on the General Election. LOL

btw, there was insightful analysis plus Q&A of the GE on the Parliament Channel - it was on endlessly over New Year - called something snappy like 'The General Election 2010'. Bound to come up again.

 

[kyser_soze]

called something snappy like 'The General Election 2010'. Bound to come up again.

Sometimes those production types really earn their money for being creative, eh?

 

[Plumdaff]

On the point of local cuts being linked to national - some councils are making that explicit - there are posters round sunny St.Ockwell and the rest of Lambeth pointing this out. Not that the uber New Labourites of Lambeth were planning any especially different even if they had got in nationally mind.

As for the Tory vote going up after the election - isn't there a historical trend for the Tory vote to be underestimated because people are ashamed to admit it - once they're in government maybe some people feel more able to admit they voted that way (maybe not so much now). That plus the odd Lib Dem voter returning to their natural home might explain it, although those percentage points are probably still well within margins of error.

 

[Streathamite]

On the point of local cuts being linked to national - some councils are making that explicit - there are posters round sunny St.Ockwell and the rest of Lambeth pointing this out. Not that the uber New Labourites of Lambeth were planning any especially different even if they had got in nationally mind.

As for the Tory vote going up after the election - isn't there a historical trend for the Tory vote to be underestimated because people are ashamed to admit it - once they're in government maybe some people feel more able to admit they voted that way (maybe not so much now). That plus the odd Lib Dem voter returning to their natural home might explain it, although those percentage points are probably still well within margins of error.

all these are valid, but a likelier explanation for the rise is all those centre-right voters who wanted to vote for a capitalist party and still feel good about themselves. These types are all now saying 'may as well vote tory anyway, they're the same thing'.
roughly as belboid has said above

 

[shagnasty]

Just thinking soon you be able to predict the libdem rating with single dice 1 to 6

 

[OneStrike]

According to political pundits on twitter, today was the first time since 97 that no lib had a question during pmq's, a sign that there issue is with the leadership perhaps?

 

[butchersapron]

Cowards

 

[Sgt Howie]

YouGov - 36/43/9

Tories starting to take a hit?

 

[butchersapron]

If yg say it then it's moving...

 

[shagnasty]

And for those pricks who like to add libdem and con ratings together the diference is just two percentage points

 

[King Biscuit Time]

And for those pricks who like to add libdem and con ratings together the diference is just two percentage points

But in terms of seats, Labour would be well ahead.

In fact, using the BBC's (fairly basic) seat calculator from last year- 36/43/9 would translate to Cons 218, Labour 387, Libs 18, Others 27.

Although - this current YouGov poll is probably a bit of an outlier. I don't think the Labour lead is quite that big at the moment (and neither do YouGov).

 

[shagnasty]

You guv

Con 37% lab 43% libdem 9%

government approv -22%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

[little_legs]

from the Sun Times, Jan 16:

ED MILIBAND is now more popular than Nick Clegg among voters who had backed the Liberal Democrats at the last general election.

Lib Dem fortunes have plunged to such depths after eight months of coalition government that 41% of men and women who voted for the party last May would today back Labour at the ballot box. Just one-third said they would stick with Clegg.

Among all voters Labour is on 43%, giving the party a solid six-point lead over the Conservatives on 37%. The Lib Dems languish on 9%.

Today's poll is particularly damning of Clegg, with 63% of Lib Dem supporters at the 2010 election saying he is doing badly as party leader and 67% saying he cannot be trusted to keep his promises.

Voters of all persuasions are also scathing about the Lib Dems' influence around the coalition cabinet table: 58% believe they have little or no influence at all in the Torydominated administration.

 

[ferrelhadley]

ED MILIBAND is now more popular than Nick Clegg among voters who had backed the Liberal Democrats at the last general election.

Damned with the faintest of praise surely.

 

[killer b]

you could replace 'ed miliband' with almost anything, and that statement would still be true.

genital herpes is now more popular than Nick Clegg among voters who had backed the Liberal Democrats at the last general election.

Ian Huntley is now more popular than Nick Clegg among voters who had backed the Liberal Democrats at the last general election.

 

[William of Walworth]

 

[audiotech]

 

[Crispy]

I'm going to give this thread a more straightforward title: LibDem Pollwatch - 10% and falling
Objections?

 

[butchersapron]

Call them shit as well. Also 9/8% is now more accurate.

 

[JimW]

Any figure's a hostage to fortune, and let's all hope we've not hit bottom yet. So, 'Lib Dems - How Low Can They Go?', which gets the party ethic nicely too.

 

[kabbes]

Now we see the JACKBOOT of the moderator.

 

[Streathamite]

I like that!

 

[Streathamite]

Now we see the JACKBOOT of the moderator.

ooh yeah, crispy's sooo authoritarian....

 

[butchersapron]

Lib-dem vote collapses in Scotland

Support for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland has fallen by more than half since the last Holyrood elections as the party faces a public backlash in the wake of tough Coalition decisions on the economy at Westminster.

In a sign its vote is collapsing in the run-up to May’s poll, the party’s public opinion ratings have fallen by five percentage points over the last five months.

The results of a TNS-BMRC poll today reveal the LibDem share of the constituency vote has also more than halved since the 2007 poll.

What i want to know, is why the SNP are doing so well considering they're forcing through unneeded cuts and effectively sacking 125 000 people (65 000 directly)?

 

[Plumdaff]

Lib-dem vote collapses in Scotland

What i want to know, is why the SNP are doing so well considering they're forcing through unneeded cuts and effectively sacking 125 000 people (65 000 directly)?

They're not doing that well - 16% below Labour. I don't agree with this, but maybe the perception is that these are Westminster cuts, despite Salmond's "let's be another Ireland" neo liberal hubris?
If I were in Scotland I'd certainly be feeling a bit more nationalist at the prospect of another Tory government my country didn't vote for.

 

[butchersapron]

They're not doing that well - 16% below Labour. I don't agree with this, but maybe the perception is that these are Westminster cuts, despite Salmond's "let's be another Ireland" neo liberal hubris?
If I were in Scotland I'd certainly be feeling a bit more nationalist at the prospect of another Tory government my country didn't vote for.

They're doing very well considering and their polling has actually gone up over the last 6 months. They're within spitting distance of their performance last time round. Part of the nationalist vote will surely be on anti-cuts and sackings so will got to labour. Looks to me like the tories are propping up the SNP rather than anti-tories flooding into them.

 

[redsquirrel]

Any figure's a hostage to fortune, and let's all hope we've not hit bottom yet. So, 'Lib Dems - How Low Can They Go?', which gets the party ethic nicely too.

This is a good idea