Labour leadership

[belboid]

Is may or may not be the case that you can vote as a Unite Community member? If so that would be a better way to go about it. Can anyone confirm?

No, you have to explicitly sign up

 

[ska invita]

No, you have to explicitly sign up

Are you sure? There is a UNITE option here: http://support.labour.org.uk - it doesnt seem to distinguish between Unite and Unite Community membership

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Are you sure? There is a UNITE option here: http://support.labour.org.uk - it doesnt seem to distinguish between Unite and Unite Community membership

You have to sign up as a Labour Party supporter

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Hodges...PMSL. What a fucking sad cunt.

I think his heart is in the right place, and I am not a fan of Owen Jones, but "the katie Hopkins of the Blairite right" is a pretty good dig.

 

[Stay Beautiful]

how did you arrive at that figure sb?

Just a rough and very liberal estimate. Turnout last time was circa 70% in the members section. Apparently around 210,000 members now - I doubt the turnout will be much higher this time. So that'll mean 150,000 or so returning a ballot. Corbyn is perhaps a bit more credible than Abbott 5 years ago, has a bit more momentum behind him... possibly takes 20% of 1st preferences at best (being very generous here - DA got about half that in a 5 candidate field) Gives him 30,000 in the first round members section. That leaves the other 3 with 120,000 combined. To make up the vast deficit he'd face on the others after the 1st round and in the following rounds (you'd expect the 2nd preferences from supporters of the other 3 to be limited at best - especially if they fear he might actually do quite well) he'd probably need to be ahead by at least 100,000 in 1st preferences in the 'registered supporters' section. 150,000 ahead would more or less guarantee the win in the 1st round with as the others probably wouldn't have that combined and therefore guaranteed not to make up the deficit. But you'd probably need at least 200k pledging allowing for the folk who wouldn't bother to vote when the crunch came.

 

[teqniq]

The Labour leadership election is an oasis of boredom

Frankie Boyle just

 

[brogdale]

Jezus

 

[ska invita]

Just a rough and very liberal estimate. Turnout last time was circa 70% in the members section. Apparently around 210,000 members now - I doubt the turnout will be much higher this time. So that'll mean 150,000 or so returning a ballot. Corbyn is perhaps a bit more credible than Abbott 5 years ago, has a bit more momentum behind him... possibly takes 20% of 1st preferences at best (being very generous here - DA got about half that in a 5 candidate field) Gives him 30,000 in the first round members section. That leaves the other 3 with 120,000 combined. To make up the vast deficit he'd face on the others after the 1st round and in the following rounds (you'd expect the 2nd preferences from supporters of the other 3 to be limited at best - especially if they fear he might actually do quite well) he'd probably need to be ahead by at least 100,000 in 1st preferences in the 'registered supporters' section. 150,000 ahead would more or less guarantee the win in the 1st round with as the others probably wouldn't have that combined and therefore guaranteed not to make up the deficit. But you'd probably need at least 200k pledging allowing for the folk who wouldn't bother to vote when the crunch came.

sounds reasonable...and also a large figure...cant see it happening without a euphoric viral campaign...which i cant see happening...

 

[andysays]

Jezus

Looks like GG has at least one London Mayoral vote in the bag

 

[nino_savatte]

I think his heart is in the right place, and I am not a fan of Owen Jones, but "the katie Hopkins of the Blairite right" is a pretty good dig.

Yeah, you would say Hodges has "his heart is in the right place". I think he's a bitter bastard tbh.

 

[brogdale]

Vermin high command must be sorely tempted to 'encourage' their members to join this process.

 

[nino_savatte]

Lol. This could backfire.

 

[brogdale]

Lol. This could backfire.

(R)Ed's legacy of OMOV...it's just that quite a few of the "M" might well be vermin.
Lol

 

[brogdale]

 

[teqniq]

That's in the article I linked to along with

Yvette Cooper has a broken, downbeat delivery that could make Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah sound like a cancer diagnosis.

 

[AC14]

The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.

 

[CNT36]

The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.

William Hill has him at 14/1.

 

[belboid]

The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.

No comment on all the points showing why your arguments have been crap? Funny that.

 

[belboid]

Rushanara Ali withdrew last minute, apparently, meaning her votes could be redistributed, so Stella Creasy, Ben Bradshaw, Angela Eagle have made it onto the ballot, along with Caroline Flint and (the winner) Tom Watson.

Apparently

 

[AC14]

No comment on all the points showing why your arguments have been crap? Funny that.

I didn't see any valid points. I saw a straw man or two and some ad hominems - which is some achievement considering people don't know me.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I didn't see any valid points.

You didn't see any which support your position, that's a different thing entirely. Something can be valid even if you disagree with it.

 

[AC14]

You didn't see any which support your position, that's a different thing entirely. Something can be valid even if you disagree with it.

I saw nothing worth arguing with because I saw no points worthy of the name.

 

[belboid]

I didn't see any valid points. I saw a straw man or two and some ad hominems - which is some achievement considering people don't know me.

You'er a dishonest prat then. talk drivel and then refuse to respond to criticisms. Are you treelover in disguise?

 

[belboid]

I saw nothing worth arguing with because I saw no points worthy of the name.

Fuck off then.

 

[AC14]

You'er a dishonest prat then. talk drivel and then refuse to respond to criticisms. Are you treelover in disguise?

Another ad hominem.

 

[AC14]

Fuck off then.

No need for this.

 

[belboid]

Another ad hominem.

your arguments are shown to be fallacious, you refuse to respond, and YOU try and claim the high ground? Please, we're not stupid.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You stupidly really think you might win an election but can never explain how you'll win over Tory voters. Idiots.

Tory voters (going by the last election) make up roughly a quarter of the electorate. That leaves three quarters of the population up for grabs without any need to pander to tories.

And for every vote you claw back from the tories or UKIP, you will probably alienate three of the people your party is actually supposed to represent.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I saw nothing worth arguing with because I saw no points worthy of the name.

Sometimes, when people call you an idiot, it's not them trying to discredit your arguments. Sometimes they're just doing it because you're an idiot.

 

[DotCommunist]

And things were better under Labour. If you don't believe that you haven't lived through the coalition years.
Oh, you did, and you know I'm right. Still, a left labour feels good even if not in power.

I was poor and treated like a cunt then and I am now, so guess again. Thats the thing with labour supporters in the post-thatcher years, they assume that everyone did hunky dory under that nice mr blair- bollocks.