Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Labour leadership

ska invita said:
how did you arrive at that figure sb?
Click to expand...

Just a rough and very liberal estimate. Turnout last time was circa 70% in the members section. Apparently around 210,000 members now - I doubt the turnout will be much higher this time. So that'll mean 150,000 or so returning a ballot. Corbyn is perhaps a bit more credible than Abbott 5 years ago, has a bit more momentum behind him... possibly takes 20% of 1st preferences at best (being very generous here - DA got about half that in a 5 candidate field) Gives him 30,000 in the first round members section. That leaves the other 3 with 120,000 combined. To make up the vast deficit he'd face on the others after the 1st round and in the following rounds (you'd expect the 2nd preferences from supporters of the other 3 to be limited at best - especially if they fear he might actually do quite well) he'd probably need to be ahead by at least 100,000 in 1st preferences in the 'registered supporters' section. 150,000 ahead would more or less guarantee the win in the 1st round with as the others probably wouldn't have that combined and therefore guaranteed not to make up the deficit. But you'd probably need at least 200k pledging allowing for the folk who wouldn't bother to vote when the crunch came.
 
Stay Beautiful said:
Just a rough and very liberal estimate. Turnout last time was circa 70% in the members section. Apparently around 210,000 members now - I doubt the turnout will be much higher this time. So that'll mean 150,000 or so returning a ballot. Corbyn is perhaps a bit more credible than Abbott 5 years ago, has a bit more momentum behind him... possibly takes 20% of 1st preferences at best (being very generous here - DA got about half that in a 5 candidate field) Gives him 30,000 in the first round members section. That leaves the other 3 with 120,000 combined. To make up the vast deficit he'd face on the others after the 1st round and in the following rounds (you'd expect the 2nd preferences from supporters of the other 3 to be limited at best - especially if they fear he might actually do quite well) he'd probably need to be ahead by at least 100,000 in 1st preferences in the 'registered supporters' section. 150,000 ahead would more or less guarantee the win in the 1st round with as the others probably wouldn't have that combined and therefore guaranteed not to make up the deficit. But you'd probably need at least 200k pledging allowing for the folk who wouldn't bother to vote when the crunch came.
Click to expand...
sounds reasonable...and also a large figure...cant see it happening without a euphoric viral campaign...which i cant see happening...
 
The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.
 
AC14 said:
The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.
Click to expand...
William Hill has him at 14/1.
 
AC14 said:
The Tories are all over this at below £4 a vote. I can't see enough of them actually doing it to make a difference, but we certainly need to learn the lessons. I'm in favour of OMOV, but they should be members rather than supporters.
Click to expand...
No comment on all the points showing why your arguments have been crap? Funny that.
 
Rushanara Ali withdrew last minute, apparently, meaning her votes could be redistributed, so Stella Creasy, Ben Bradshaw, Angela Eagle have made it onto the ballot, along with Caroline Flint and (the winner) Tom Watson.

Apparently
 
AC14 said:
I didn't see any valid points. I saw a straw man or two and some ad hominems - which is some achievement considering people don't know me.
Click to expand...
You'er a dishonest prat then. talk drivel and then refuse to respond to criticisms. Are you treelover in disguise?
 
AC14 said:
You stupidly really think you might win an election but can never explain how you'll win over Tory voters. Idiots.
Click to expand...

Tory voters (going by the last election) make up roughly a quarter of the electorate. That leaves three quarters of the population up for grabs without any need to pander to tories.

And for every vote you claw back from the tories or UKIP, you will probably alienate three of the people your party is actually supposed to represent.
 
AC14 said:
And things were better under Labour. If you don't believe that you haven't lived through the coalition years.
Oh, you did, and you know I'm right. Still, a left labour feels good even if not in power.
Click to expand...

I was poor and treated like a cunt then and I am now, so guess again. Thats the thing with labour supporters in the post-thatcher years, they assume that everyone did hunky dory under that nice mr blair- bollocks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Pickman's model
yvette cooper's pitiful politics
Replies
0
Views
175
Pickman's model
Pickman's model
hitmouse
Unions and Labour
Replies
20
Views
920
Fedayn
Fedayn
Humberto
Home Building Labour guff
Replies
1
Views
244
Humberto
Humberto
Kid_Eternity
New Labour government - legislative agenda
25 26 27 28 29
Replies
848
Views
24K
tommers
tommers
frogwoman
Jas Athwal - Labour MP owns several London flats full of ants and black mould
Replies
13
Views
730
Pickman's model
Pickman's model
Back
Top Bottom