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Labour leadership

Hate to say i agree with this:

That piece is replete with Campbellisms - of course Corbyn is going to face "the pressures of real, difficult decisions and the day to day leadership of the main Opposition" and "need to rely on others showing discipline he has never shown himself"; Alistair and his Blairite chums are going to go around ensuring that all of those crises exist.
 
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The yet more detailed breakdown here:

lpollp1.png

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when is the voting and how long does it take?

  • Tuesday 9 June 2015 – Nominations open
  • Monday 15 June 2015 (12:00) – Nominations for the Leader close
  • Wednesday 17 June 2015 (12:00) – Nominations for the Deputy Leader close
  • Wednesday 17 June 2015 (12:00)Hustings period opens
  • Friday 31 July 2015 (12:00) – Supporting nominations close
  • Wednesday 12 August 2015 (12:00) – Last date to join as member, affiliated support or registered supporter and be able to vote
  • Friday 14 August 2015 – Ballot papers are sent out
  • Thursday 10 September 2015 (12:00) – Ballot closes
  • Saturday 12 September 2015Special Conference to announce the results
 
  • Tuesday 9 June 2015 – Nominations open
  • Monday 15 June 2015 (12:00) – Nominations for the Leader close
  • Wednesday 17 June 2015 (12:00) – Nominations for the Deputy Leader close
  • Wednesday 17 June 2015 (12:00)Hustings period opens
  • Friday 31 July 2015 (12:00) – Supporting nominations close
  • Wednesday 12 August 2015 (12:00) – Last date to join as member, affiliated support or registered supporter and be able to vote
  • Friday 14 August 2015 – Ballot papers are sent out
  • Thursday 10 September 2015 (12:00) – Ballot closes
  • Saturday 12 September 2015Special Conference to announce the results

So voting takes place over nearly a month, still time for big upsets, dirty tricks, etc.
 
Highlights from the you gov poll -

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...ed-landslide-53-6230347#ICID=sharebar_twitter

The poll questioned 1,411 people eligible to vote in the contest.

It says even fully-fledged Labour members - who've increased from 200,000 to 270,000 since May - would vote 49% in favour of Mr Corbyn.

Registered supporters who've paid £3 to vote are 55% for Mr Corbyn, while affiliated trade union supporters would vote 67% for the left-winger.

He's also more popular with women (61%) than men (48%).

Astonishing stuff. Those millitant tendancy entryists and trolling telegraph readers have excelled themselves - seems lots of them joined labour before the last election.
 
19% of Corbyn supporters don't think he's likely to win the next election, but are going to vote for him anyway. :)

That's probably a worrying statistic as those will be the people who're most likely to be able to be scared into voting for someone they're told is more electable, and that's a big enough proportion of his support base to really put it on a knife edge.

Would the Labour Party actually put their principles before electing someone they viewed as being more electable? Possibly this time because only a tiny majority think that Burnham is likely to win it, and most of them are only in the fairly likely to win it camp, so they're not really buying the idea that any of the others are particularly electable.
 
19% of Corbyn supporters don't think he's likely to win the next election, but are going to vote for him anyway. :)

That's probably a worrying statistic as those will be the people who're most likely to be able to be scared into voting for someone they're told is more electable, and that's a big enough proportion of his support base to really put it on a knife edge.

Would the Labour Party actually put their principles before electing someone they viewed as being more electable? Possibly this time because only a tiny majority think that Burnham is likely to win it, and most of them are only in the fairly likely to win it camp, so they're not really buying the idea that any of the others are particularly electable.
Similar to the other candidates in that regard though. For Burnham amongst his own supporters, it's still 11% and he's the lowest. Amongst Corbyn supporters, they think Corbyn is the most likely to win.

Ther is an oddity in the data I don't understand. Corbyn exceeds 50% for both ABC1 and C2DE. this surely isn't possible given that his total is less than 50%. Or is there another category than A-E?
 
Ther is an oddity in the data I don't understand. Corbyn exceeds 50% for both ABC1 and C2DE. this surely isn't possible given that his total is less than 50%. Or is there another category than A-E?
Nope. He has 53% support for first preference votes in that poll. 51% of ABC1 and 57% of C2DE
 
Nope. He has 53% support for first preference votes in that poll. 51% of ABC1 and 57% of C2DE
So he does. I was looking at the first column with 43 rather than the second with 53.

The poll certainly gives lie to the myths about niche popularity. It's truly universal.
 
The Corbyn thing isn't really about Corbyn though from my pov.

It's more about the other candidates being so anodyne.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Corbyn gets in though. The impression I get is that he is not remotely ready for actually assuming the leadership and the question then is whether (i) he compromises or (ii) he presses forward on his current prospectus.

Although I voted Labour (that vote being irrelevant under FPTP anyway...), I would struggle to muster an argument in favour of any of the candidates this time round.

It is an appallingly weak field.
 
Yeah, there is a massive irony in three candidates that can't muster 50% between them telling the one that has more than 50% by himself that *he* is the unelectable one...

But the obvious point is that there are two elections going on here.

First, the election to Labour leadership which is dependent on the Labour franchise.

Second, the general election to Prime Minister which is dependent on the UK franchise.

They are quite different things.
 
Yeah, there is a massive irony in three candidates that can't muster 50% between them telling the one that has more than 50% by himself that *he* is the unelectable one...
if they read that poll - and don't dismiss it out of hand - they really should start to shut the fuck up about 'infiltration' as it (to the miserly extent it actually exists) is obviously irrelevant to the result. Shits like Sheerman cant be stupid enough to not realise that every word they say pushes more people to Corbyn, and the more he just fucks off that majority of existing Labour members who will vote for him.
 
Have you seen the shoddy Liz Kendall ones? :eek:
I was going to say exactly that :)

Mind you she has never looked to me to have leadership potential, nor Burnham or Cooper for that matter. There is only one who seems to be filling halls across the country and that's Corbyn.
 
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