Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Keir Starmer's time is up

It’s a weird choice, as most of Harrow town is already represented by Labour councillors.
Yeah it’s not like Labour struggle to win votes in London; and didn’t lose a critical block of seats in the post industrial north in 2019

I’m now wondering if this was a rather desperate attempt by Mandelson to appear relevant and throw some digs at unions and drop the woke bomb that boomers seem to favour when they have no other response
 
'Woke activists and militant trade unions' was exactly the shit attack line Liz Truss was using in PMQs last week as a last desperate attempt to hold things together while everything fell down around her ears. Pretty much word for word. It's like they're still running scared of the weakest PM ever even after she's been booted out.
 

"A Corbynista candidate for the Camberwell and Peckham parliamentary seat says he’s been removed from the process because of his “life-long socialism” and anti-racism campaigning ..."

29411560-0-image-a-11_1591717222552.jpg


(Source: @Keir_Starmer)

Maurice Mcleod’s bid to be Labour MP candidate for Camberwell and Peckham halted ‘by party’s right’
 
I think it is a case of Tories who were not going to vote Tory under Truss and stay at home. Not sure the poll leads were down to anyone finding the brycreamed wonder an attractive option.

yes - opinion polls always need to be treated with a bit of caution

when the tories are unpopular, you get people who don't want to admit they will still vote for the twunts (see polls for the 1992 election for example)

and when someone who normally votes for one party is pissed off with them, they are more likely to say they won't at an opinion poll (and to a lesser extent likely to not vote, or do a protest vote at local or - in the past euro - elections) than to actually vote for 'the other lot' come a 'real' election
 
Sunak managed to get himself a reputation as Mr Sensible largely because he was the only Tory candidate not batshit crazy enough to claim he could lower taxes when the economy is in free fall. There are plenty of dyed-in-the-wool middle-shire spreadsheet-worker Tory supporters that totally turned on the Truss government and would genuinely have given boring Kieth a chance. Now, they’ve breathed a sigh of relief and turned back to Sunak, thinking the grown-ups are back in charge.

What happens next is therefore critical. If Sunak carries on the culture war obsessions, spooks capital and turns to the right, the Truss slide will probably resume. If, however, he turns into John Major then he has a chance of retaining his core support against a completely uninspiring opponent.
 
Labour's leads are pretty much in free fall:

Suppose the interesting bit is where they end up, whether it's lower than the 10-15% leads they had under johnson. That the voters think the leader of a party who has just fucked the economy could be a better alternative than sensible kieth speaks volumes (about kieth).

I suppose it depends on what Sunak actually delivers - if its more zany and bent incompetence of the May / Johnson / Truss type then the big lead will persist.

If he actually looks like he is making an effort to deal with things fairly, doesn't needlessly wind up the unions nor seek to divide the populace and it appears to work then I could even see them getting a better result vs Kieth in 2024 than they did in 2019 vs Corbs. What would Labour's platform be if dull managerial realism is already taken?

People did actually like Corbs, after all.
 
Sunak managed to get himself a reputation as Mr Sensible largely because he was the only Tory candidate not batshit crazy enough to claim he could lower taxes when the economy is in free fall. There are plenty of dyed-in-the-wool middle-shire spreadsheet-worker Tory supporters that totally turned on the Truss government and would genuinely have given boring Kieth a chance. Now, they’ve breathed a sigh of relief and turned back to Sunak, thinking the grown-ups are back in charge.

What happens next is therefore critical. If Sunak carries on the culture war obsessions, spooks capital and turns to the right, the Truss slide will probably resume. If, however, he turns into John Major then he has a chance of retaining his core support against a completely uninspiring opponent.
Rug pull
And not a lot Sunak can do about it, but at least he attempts to understand what he is talking about which may come in handy in a PM
 
The other factor here is the play between the "Red Wall" and Home Counties seats. I think Sunak is going to stabilise the Tory vote in the latter which was damaged by Johnson and Truss. I'm more skeptical that he will appeal to voters in Hartlepool or Ashfield, in the same way that Johnson did.
 
Back
Top Bottom