I think it depends on who they pick, but I think Labour might just win because the red wall seats will be back with labour imo
The problem with that assumption is that it doesn't take account of voting behaviour in that people mostly vote * for * someone or something.
They previously voted for Labour in the working class former industrial North because of heritage/tradition, working class loyalty to the Labour movement.
Then they voted Conservative because they were 'similarly' voting for the (white) working class, and to take back our sovereignty from Europe and 'make Britain great again' etc. And Boris is a bit of a lad, a bit of a lark, very popular and populist.
Except now it's maybe dawning on them that the working class is screwed every which way. The saviours of the 'hard working families' haven't really saved or helped them, much. Yes, some people might've benefited from furlough or grants for small businesses etc during the pandemic, but lots of people fell through the gaps. And many would've realised that the life of Reilly they thought 'benefits scroungers' were living while they toiled was actually pretty fucking grim and involved lots of scrimping and saving and doing without. Although many who already knew about 'in work poverty' went from struggling to relying on food banks, and choosing between heating or eating.
But what does Labour have to offer those subsisting below the poverty line on benefits and those hard working families who now find themselves struggling more than ever before?
Starmer's neither popular not populist. He's not a man of the people like Corbyn. He's not a jack the lad who people might vote for because he's funny on telly like Johnson.
When you think about how many tens, hundreds of thousands of people died needlessly because Johnson was a knob who talked to the media about how he was 'shaking hands with Covid patients' and wasn't man enough to implement lockdowns or cancel Christmas - for other people, he was partying behind the scenes all along - until it was all too late. And all the corruption and sleaze...
...Labour should be absolutely soaring ahead in the polls, should have been for months. But Starmer can hardly score even when there's an open goal at PMQs.
And Starmer's either a policy vacuum - doesn't want to play Labour's hand too early - or the pronouncements he does make amount to out-Torying the Tories. Don't want to scare big business. Doesn't want to side with trade unions or working people who've had wages freezes or below inflation pay rises for years, real-term pay cuts.
He's not giving people anything to vote * for * so I reckon turnout will be lower, because those who voted Tory last time probably won't jump straight back to Labour. They've broken that bond. They don't owe Labour their vote.