Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I wouldn't put it past starmer to lead labour to fewer votes than they received in 2019
Keir Starmer's time is up
- Thread starter agricola
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MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Come a general election I'm pretty sure that they will get more, Corbyn was wildly popular with a small segment of the population and deeply unpopular amongst most of it. Starmer is wildly popular with his followers but the general response to him seems to be 'meh'
I reckon Labour will win back some of the seats they lost in 2019 but I can't imagine them winning a GE.
If Labour lose in Hartlepool I can't see Starmer going but if it's combined with poor LE results then I can see much muttering amongst the ranks in the Labour Party.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
This would be the really shitty election in which Corbyn got more votes than the LP in 2005, 2010 and 2015
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Labour got more votes in 2019 than the Tories did in 2010 as well which they won, are you suggesting there is some significance in that? There were also about a million and half more voters in 2019 than 2005 plus turnout was higher. You also don't mention the 2017 election only 2 years earlier as opposed to 16. The Labour vote plummeted after that whilst the Tory one (who swapped out their leader) stayed steady. Pointing to a number at a point in time and saying this number is higher than another number at a different point in time and saying this proves X (ie Corbyn was popular) doesn't really work.
All the polls at the time tended to show considerable dislike of Corbyn amongst the public. A lot of the Labour Party must have thought that too, ALL the election leaflets I received in 2017 from Labour made no mention of his name at all, the 2019 ones did.
There did seem to be more support for Corbyn's policies than Corbyn himself, probably still is but they're tainted by association with him and are (sadly) unlikely to get resurrected any time soon.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The simple fact of the matter is that the scale of the disaster is exaggerated by people who for whatever reason want to make out Corbyn was supremely unpopular. I don't mention 2017 because believe it or not that's an election where labour attracted more votes than in 2019.
I mean, Labour were plunging towards Pasokification until Corbyn, they're just going to continue that course now. Just continually spinning that big wheel to see which of their core votes they can alienate next in pursuit of pensioners who will never vote for them
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
How so? The 2005 and 2010 votes show that there is a significant Labour vote even under bad conditions. While FPTP exists the LP are going to continue to be one of the two major parties in England (and Wales).
(None of which means that Starmer is not useless and may even take a lower share of the vote of the electorate, but that is a far cry from the Pasokification that the French Socialists or German SDP have seen)
Yeah they used to think the same in Scotland
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Scottish politics allowed a re-arrangment process to occur, in part because there is a voting system other than FPTP. The same conditions do not exist in England. Where is the party that is going to eat the LP? The Greens?
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
TBF the LP has been eating itself already, I am not sure another party needs to come along to join in the feasting.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
How does that lead to Pasokification? Doing shit (and as bad as it is doing the LP is still polling ahead of its vote share in the 2019 election) is not the same as what Syriza have done to Pasok, the German Greens with the SDP, or the the SNP to the LP in Scotland.
I dislike anti-toryism as a political tactic/rallying point but it would be daft to deny its base (simply look at the threads on U75). And the anti-Tory vote in England simply does not have an option other than the LP in all but a handful of seats. 2015 had the highest proportion of councils/councillors belonging to the two major parties for decades. Despite the LDs gains at the local level over the last 5 years there are still only 25 councils in England where a party other than Lab/Con hold a majority (all LD).
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Also look at the Greens polling prior to 2019 compared with their final vote share. Like with the LDs in 2015 lots of people may be unenthused (or even dislike) Labour but they don't want the Torys back in.
BristolEcho
Well-Known Member
I had a dream about him last night. Apparently I was working for him and it didn't go well as I got asked to leave.
Puddy_Tat
happy mew year
which bin should you put kieth in, though?
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Fucking hell. I logged into my Labour Party account earlier as I'm thinking of leaving (joined late 2019 - I thought someone should - even did one leaflet run for the election - but I lack enthusiasm)...
Then I was on the phone and a text came through inviting me to Zoom with Starmer and crashed the call !
Then I was on the phone and a text came through inviting me to Zoom with Starmer and crashed the call !
rekil
to menny cranks
I anticipate that this important question shall be resolved by a bin/starmer fever dream crossover any night now.
ska invita
back on the other side
wetwipes cant be recycled so go in general waste
lazythursday
Averagely-Known Member
I have cancelled my direct debit but it's not been long enough yet for me to count as properly excommunicated - part of me wonders if he's going to get the knife in the back and I should pay up so I get a vote. But it's all pointless anyway isn't it, they aren't going to make the mistake of 2015 ever again in my lifetime.
ska invita
back on the other side
if there is a challenge there will be an election
at which point if theres someone worth voting for you can always rejoin and vote
there will be no challenge
I think around 2015 it was a matter of time before the activity around anti-austerity formed a new party to the left of Labour. See the People's Assembly stuff and Left Unity project, there was definitely something building up there, but Corbyn's election as leader of the Labour Party led to most of the people involved in that getting involved with Labour and Momentum instead.
There is a strong social-democratic tradition in this country and a failure of the Labour Party to represent that is what lost them Scotland, and will lose them England as soon as a viable alternative can emerge. Corbyn delayed that process by bringing anti-austerity activists back into the Labour Party.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Depends which union. Only member's of affiliated unions get a vote
hitmouse
entreprenulsoip critical thinking
Not convinced of that tbh - did PA or LU even contest any elections? And if they did, how did their votes compare to, say, TUSC? I'm more enthusiastic about non-electoral stuff than electoral stuff, but even in those terms I think stuff was at a pretty low ebb around late 2014/early 2015 - was there even still anti-Bedroom Tax stuff going then? Or much anti-workfare stuff? As I remember it, it sort of feels like "anti-austerity" as a movement peaked in 2011 and was in decline ever since the pensions dispute collapsed.
Do you have to pay into the Labour Link fund as well? I think opting out means you don't get a vote, I could be wrong though.
No they didn't contest any elections, but there were probably far more political activists outside the Labour Party than in it. It was only a matter of time before it coelesced into a viable political party - I think if Corbyn hadn't been elected as Labour leader this would have happened already, and it will probably happen within the next two electoral cycles now that they've returned to their old ways.
Edit to add: Like the ridiculous characterisation of the membership increasing 2.5 fold as being down to a conspiracy of literally hundreds of thousands Trotskyite entryists. When the "entryists" far outnumber the original party members (majority of whom backed Corbyn as well), that's a clear indicator that there's a large activist political base which will find expression one way or the other.
hitmouse
entreprenulsoip critical thinking
I mean, I could well be wrong about this (I am very bad at predicting things, and basically thought Labour was already in terminal decline after they lost Scotland), but I think you might well be underestimating the obstacles of getting a new party going under FPTP. I think the history of Socialist Alliance/Respect/Left List/TUSC/No2EU shows how difficult that task can be.
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