Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[killer b]

May's numbers are pretty shit tbh - but the failure of the Labour party to build a lead against her isn't really a failure on corbyn's part, more a symptom of the political moment.

Note that even with a shiny new centrist party for disillusioned centrist tories to move to, their numbers have stayed rock solid. There was no political benefit for Labour to tack right, as there's no centrists left behind the tories.

 

[Shechemite]

what's the really for, that it really seems to Teaboy that lots of people think tm's doing a surprisingly good job?

Yes.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes.

yes, that's what he said, it really seems to him that a surprisingly large number of people think theresa may's doing a good job.

 

[Shechemite]

yes, that's what he said, it really seems to him that a surprisingly large number of people think theresa may's doing a good job.

Glad to have gotten to the bottom of this then

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

To be fair I'd be surprised if more than about half a dozen people thought she was doing a good job.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

May's numbers are pretty shit tbh - but the failure of the Labour party to build a lead against her isn't really a failure on corbyn's part, more a symptom of the political moment.

Note that even with a shiny new centrist party for disillusioned centrist tories to move to, their numbers have stayed rock solid. There was no political benefit for Labour to tack right, as there's no centrists left behind the tories.

May's numbers are shite. But the idea that the LP failure isn't anything Corbyn could do much about is bending the stick miles too far. There was/is a political space finally for a return to a limited form of social democracy and his task was to build a coalition beyond the core support for it. He hasn't done that and if anything is increasingly retreating to the core base rather than the hinterland around it.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The renationalisation and anti-austerity positions are popular though (aren’t they?)

Yes, but that vote is in the bag.

 

[Pickman's model]

To be fair I'd be surprised if more than about half a dozen people thought she was doing a good job.

that is to me a surprisingly large number of people to think that

 

[killer b]

Yes, but that vote is in the bag.

it isn't at all - lots of solid tory voters support renationalisation and anti-austerity policies.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

it isn't at all - lots of solid tory voters support renationalisation and anti-austerity policies.

If you think the answer is doubling down on this then you’d be wrong.

 

[killer b]

If you think the answer is doubling down on this then you’d be wrong.

The answer to what? I just meant that the pro-nationalisation votes aren't in the bag, because lots of people vote for reasons other than policy. The tories are rock solid on 40% - that isn't moving, even though many of those voters say they want policies which would only be implemented by a soc-dem government.

That solid 40% is the barrier against Labour forming a majority government in the near future IMO, much more than any eye-catching policy announcements (although there have been plenty of those, mind) or them somehow getting on top of the antisemitism.

 

[agricola]

The answer to what? I just meant that the pro-nationalisation votes aren't in the bag, because lots of people vote for reasons other than policy. The tories are rock solid on 40% - that isn't moving, even though many of those voters say they want policies which would only be implemented by a soc-dem government.

That solid 40% is the barrier against Labour forming a majority government in the near future IMO, much more than any eye-catching policy announcements (although there have been plenty of those, mind) or them somehow getting on top of the antisemitism.

Not sure that 40% is solid Tory, rather than being Brexit-related (or possibly anyone-but-Corbyn).

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The answer to what? I just meant that the pro-nationalisation votes aren't in the bag, because lots of people vote for reasons other than policy. The tories are rock solid on 40% - that isn't moving, even though many of those voters say they want policies which would only be implemented by a soc-dem government.

That solid 40% is the barrier against Labour forming a majority government in the near future IMO, much more than any eye-catching policy announcements (although there have been plenty of those, mind) or them somehow getting on top of the antisemitism.

There was a period after the election where it looked like Labour was also rock solid at 40%. There are a number of reasons - TINGE, AS and Brexit - that tell us why that has frayed. But, and this is my point, Corbyn has done nothing to reach out into those sections of the electorate who - as you say yourself - support key tenets of social democracy but do not intend to vote labour. You can't get around this...

 

[killer b]

I disagree he's done nothing to reach out to them is all - one of the whole points of the ambiguity over brexit was to try to appeal to those people. What might they have done differently?

 

[killer b]

Not sure that 40% is solid Tory, rather than being Brexit-related (or possibly anyone-but-Corbyn).

I don't know if it's something that will hold past brexit, true. But for now it's rock solid.

 

[Teaboy]

Really?

Yes, given everything that's going on. Outside our own bubbles she seemingly has a decent level of support considering.

 

[SpookyFrank]

it isn't at all - lots of solid tory voters support renationalisation and anti-austerity policies.

In what sense do they support these policies if they vote against them?

 

[killer b]

In what sense do they support these policies if they vote against them?

they say they support them to polling companies.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Not being entirely au fait with the process here, but how would this work?

I mean I don't know, I guess I just think that if he loses and Tories win a majority there would be calls for him to go and by that point the membership that have kept him in power would be so disillusioned and exhausted that they won't then be able to secure his re-election as leader if challenged. Added to which he might want to go on his own terms then.

 

[SpookyFrank]

they say they support them to polling companies.

Yes but they're clearly lying.

 

[killer b]

Yes but they're clearly lying.

I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

 

[chilango]

Yes, but that vote is in the bag.

Far from it.

 

[chilango]

The key question is whether Corbyn, and Labour, can restart the *ahem* momentum they built at the last GE around their manifesto.

Brexit has really, really, derailed this.

I'm not sure if it can reignited.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The key question is whether Corbyn, and Labour, can restart the *ahem* momentum they built at the last GE around their manifesto.

Brexit has really, really, derailed this.

I'm not sure if it can reignited.

I'm not sure Brexit was the problem really - didn't seem an issue in 2017. Think it's more the result of constant attacks from the PLP, combined with the anti-semitism stuff.

 

[Mr Moose]

May's numbers are pretty shit tbh - but the failure of the Labour party to build a lead against her isn't really a failure on corbyn's part, more a symptom of the political moment.

Note that even with a shiny new centrist party for disillusioned centrist tories to move to, their numbers have stayed rock solid. There was no political benefit for Labour to tack right, as there's no centrists left behind the tories.

Yes, at this moment. Once Brexit is concluded then it all changes again.

But for now, the only way is down from 40% and if something doesn’t change Labour will be in no position to exploit the opportunity when it arises.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Statement doing the rounds for Momentum.

Quite liked this bit:

"Part of the difficulty is that when speaking out about the injustices of the Israel-Palestine conflict, progressive and radical activists have faced allegations of antisemitism when they have either not been antisemitic or when they did not intend to be antisemitic and took care to ensure they were not using antisemitic tropes or rhetoric. At the same time, we acknowledge that we face real currents of unchallenged and somewhat normalised anti-Jewish oppression in our movements and society at large including at times alongside criticism of Israel."

Shame CW couldn't manage something more along these lines really.

E2A: forgot the link Corbynites launch open letter apologising for Labour antisemitism - LabourList

 

[killer b]

Momentum got Michael Walker from Novara to do this on-point short on anti-semitic conspiracies too.

 

[chilango]

I don't know why the Left need to go on about Palestine & Israel so much anyway.

Yes it's a shit situation.

But it's one of many. Many.

The apparent focus, and it's been one for decades, leaves them wide open for accusations, smears, infiltration and the last as if perspective.

All of which are front and centre right now.

 

[greenfield]

I agree that many on the Left are obsessed with Israel/Palestine. I know the AWL is unpopular - and for good reason, their M.O. had always been to be as insulting as possible and then bleat about 'Unity' but their take on this has been shown to be correct.

The PLP were groping around for a stick to beat Corbyn with and they've found it in AS. This is failure of the Left ecosystem, both within and outside the Labour party.

 

[Dogsauce]

The key question is whether Corbyn, and Labour, can restart the *ahem* momentum they built at the last GE around their manifesto.

Brexit has really, really, derailed this.

I'm not sure if it can reignited.

Depends if they can get the boots on the ground again, that made a big difference last time, and Corbyn was a good motivator for this. Round my way they had lots of willing volunteers flyering at rail stations about nationalisation, or outside the school gates with targeted stuff about local effects of cuts on education. I think this was very effective, and the tories simply don’t have the numbers to match this.