Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[two sheds]

So the anti Corbyn lot are caught: split now, and spend the next couple of years building a whole new shortterm constituency party and apparatus, as well as collectively trying to assemble national brand, image and presentation (and policies, if they matter). Or don't and... what? With continuing strong opposition in most local, now pro-Corbyn, constituency parties they face a long wait for inevitable career change.

Once the silly season is over, and the party conference has clarified the new balance of forces, many of them will see a pressing need to get their ducks in a row. Mass reconciliation before xmas?

Or make a legal grab for the party name and assets.

 

[killer b]

Suppose the strategy is now to get the votes from long-time members over 50% for Smith to support the legal grab - the case will look pretty thin without at least that.

 

[brogdale]

Or make a legal grab for the party name and assets.

Would be proper pop-corn time.

 

[inva]

Would be proper pop-corn time.

I dunno, I can think of more entertaining things than Labour party wrangling tbf

 

[butchersapron]

This silence is getting rather loud isn't it?

 

[brogdale]

Momentum's latest guide to deselection.

 

[butchersapron]

Suppose the strategy is now to get the votes from long-time members over 50% for Smith to support the legal grab - the case will look pretty thin without at least that.

That would mean they win the election surely?

 

[killer b]

That would mean they win the election surely?

no, there's still a hundred thousand or so registered supporters. I guess by 'long time members' I meant those who've been members since before last summer too, if the results can be broken down to that level (you can be sure they'll try to either way...)

 

[AnnaKarpik]

Or make a legal grab for the party name and assets.

Or this? First I've heard of it, from LabourList,

There are signs, however, that centrists are planning for life beyond this summer, however, with rumours increasing they will sign up more MPs to the Co-operative banner and set up a large group to provide an alternative Opposition. There are 25 Labour/Co-op MPs currently but this could soar to more than 100 if Corbyn triumphs again. An indication, perhaps, of the belief that a formal split would help nobody but the Conservatives.

 

[butchersapron]

no, there's still a hundred thousand or so registered supporters. I guess by 'long time members' I meant those who've been members since before last summer too, if the results can be broken down to that level (you can be sure they'll try to either way...)

Ok. My feeling is there is no strategy now and hence no split. There's plenty of stuff being thrown on the table as possible moves but there's no force which could make the moves possible. And the least likely is a court challenge.

 

[killer b]

I suppose everyone is just trying to fill in the blanks. Basically it's actually just Blanks?

 

[two sheds]

..

 

[newbie]

Or make a legal grab for the party name and assets.

so their attempts at building a new party apparatus takes place while everyone is saying "well it depends what the bourgeois courts decide..." and their carefully crafted resonance with the public erodes ever faster? 'the Co-operative banner' mentioned above is a step towards reconciliation- it gives them a fighting chance to politik locally prior to 2018. I think that's the personal priority for every one of them (except those who've already decided to retire) and all their outmaneuvering will be based on the boundary changes.

 

[two sheds]

If they could get half the MPs to split off they could (I think) become the official Opposition party, and get funding instead of the Corbyn faction as such. Then I could quite see a legal challenge for name and assets. Not sure of the practicalities, though, is it the NEC that holds the rights to them?

In which case could we expect at the next NEC meeting when everyone else has gone home and the doors have been locked for the refuseniks to jump out of hiding from a cupboard to pass one final unannounced vote " ...and the NEC agrees to turn over name and assets to ....".

 

[DotCommunist]

If they could get half the MPs to split off they could (I think) become the official Opposition party, and get funding instead of the Corbyn faction as such. Then I could quite see a legal challenge for name and assets. Not sure of the practicalities, though, is it the NEC that holds the rights to them?

In which case could we expect at the next NEC meeting when everyone else has gone home and the doors have been locked for the refuseniks to jump out of hiding from a cupboard to pass one final unannounced vote " ...and the NEC agrees to turn over name and assets to ....".

mcdonnel refuses to leave the room, they won't pull that trick again, not on his watch. He's bought a pack up and everything

 

[two sheds]

cloroform

 

[Wilf]

If May sticks with the existing timetable, when the Boundary Commission reports in 2018 all the cards will be thrown up in the air and every MP will have to fight for selection for a 2020 GE. All the parties will have 12-18 months to form new constituency organisations out of the existing arrangements, with horsetrading for every position, from chair to ppc. Until it becomes clear where the pinch points will be, every sitting MP has to prepare to fight their neighbours (and allcomers?) for a seat. If/when that happens any MP who isn't well supported will be toast, and they know it.

So the anti Corbyn lot are caught: split now, and spend the next couple of years building a whole new shortterm constituency party and apparatus, as well as collectively trying to assemble national brand, image and presentation (and policies, if they matter). Or don't and... what? With continuing strong opposition in most local, now pro-Corbyn, constituency parties they face a long wait for inevitable career change.

Once the silly season is over, and the party conference has clarified the new balance of forces, many of them will see a pressing need to get their ducks in a row. Mass reconciliation before xmas?

In terms of reselections driven by a boundary review I have a feeling that only sitting MPs would be shortlisted (except for specific circumstances - sitting MP about to retire, the review creates an extra seat etc.). Haven't looked it up and I'd imagine the NEC could decide to open it up anyway. However that's my memory from one I was involved in a long time ago (maybe for the 83 election?). Of course the other point about the review is that it makes it even less likely that Labour will win in 2020, lead by Corbyn or anyone else. Given that, the reselection process is more about altering the balance of the PLP for the next round of internal battles rather than altering the complexion of a Labour Government.

 

[butchersapron]

If they could get half the MPs to split off they could (I think) become the official Opposition party, and get funding instead of the Corbyn faction as such. Then I could quite see a legal challenge for name and assets. Not sure of the practicalities, though, is it the NEC that holds the rights to them?

In which case could we expect at the next NEC meeting when everyone else has gone home and the doors have been locked for the refuseniks to jump out of hiding from a cupboard to pass one final unannounced vote " ...and the NEC agrees to turn over name and assets to ....".

Only if the Labour Party is the PLP. Which it isn't. Not constitutionally or legally. I had a great piece outlining this but can#'t seem to find it now. They could try but zero chance - Corbyn is totally safe on this route. I will look again.

 

[newbie]

Haven't looked it up and I'd imagine the NEC could decide to open it up anyway.

or a resolution at party conference 2017? Whatever the rules say, recent history suggests this will all be hard fought when the time is right.

 

[Wilf]

or a resolution at party conference 2017? Whatever the rules say, recent history suggests this will all be hard fought when the time is right.

Yes, absolutely, particularly that it will be hard fought at both the national and CLP level. I haven't been following the discussion on the practicalities and legalities of a split, but the timing and nature of the reselection process will presumably have a bearing on that too. If the right see there's a real chance that many of their MPs will be deselected for 2020 it may push them towards a pre-emptive strike.

My only observation on the split is that it's... simply hard to predict. As well as the machinations and actual plans of the right, it's also about events. In particular the party's performance in by elections and opinion polls, perhaps even more so whether they get purchase on the voters around specific campaigns (indeed if Labour can get to the point where it can do any issue based campaigning). All that's a bit drip drip, but will have an impact on levels of depression within the party. More specifically, I imagine the month or so after Corbyn is re-elected will be important in seeing where the dividing lines in the paty end up. Whether some of the right peel off and feel they have to go for a sullen silence rather than daily plotting - or whether the active plotters start upping the rhetoric and openly musing about a 'new' labour party. This is ultimately about structural issues and an attempt to restore a neo-liberal party to social democracy, but events and randomness are important.

 

[redsquirrel]

Scottish Labour leader backs Owen Smith against Jeremy Corbyn

He's fucked now. If there's anyone who knows about winning elections it's the leader of Scottish Labour.

Even the Guardian is taking the piss

Kezia Dugdale, who led Labour to its worst defeat in the Scottish elections earlier this year, said only Smith could unite the divided party and win over voters outside the party’s traditional base.

 

[DotCommunist]

Even the Guardian is taking the piss

took the fall for Jim Murphy's incompetence in a way. After the reff debacle the ghost of kier hardie wouldn't have been able to bring back those rightly resentful voters

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Even the Guardian is taking the piss

It's almost bizarre isn't it. She can stand there and go on about how Corbyn can't attract new voters and seemingly not worry that she's both failed to do that AND fucked off all the traditional voters. Even if she's right and Corbyn only gets the old lefty vote it's still better than she's done.

Total head in the sand stuff.

 

[two sheds]

Only if the Labour Party is the PLP. Which it isn't. Not constitutionally or legally. I had a great piece outlining this but can#'t seem to find it now. They could try but zero chance - Corbyn is totally safe on this route. I will look again.

I hope you're right. If the MPs *could* get a hearing before, say, a judge who was a long-time friend of Blair they could point out that they were representing millions of loyal Labour voters, not just a few thousand violent and abusive trotskyite-inflamed entryist members who were taking over the Labour party for their own ends.

 

[brogdale]

Corbyn 51% : Smith 49% or similar might be interesting.

 

[two sheds]

this (from end of June) suggests buthers is right - it talks about MPs splitting off and gaining privileges at Corbyn's expense (chairing some subcomittees and gaining funding), and then

• The majority grouping would be walking away from all of the assets of the Labour Party, most notably the buildings that it owns. This would present challenges to local parties, many of which own their own properties. Many local parties, as well as the national party, would obviously be likely to split.
• Those remaining with the original Labour Party would retain its assets, but also its debts. The Labour Party’s finances have often been somewhat perilous. A big question would be which grouping financial supporters (both trade unions and major donors) chose to support after a split. A rump Labour Party with little electoral or financial support could ultimately face collapse.
• In terms of personnel, there would be very big questions regarding party staff, representatives at other levels (local councillors, members of devolved bodies and MEPs) as well as the wider membership.

What if Labour splits?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Dugdale and Khan coming out pubically in support of smith seems to make no political sense - as hes is going to get flatened in the election leaving them irreconciably opposed to a re-eclected corbyn. Its a strong signal that the PLP and the rest of the labour establishment will publically refuse to accept the result.
Its now a fight to the death - I think they will try every means at their disposal and some sort of split may happen in order to make labour ever more dysfunctional.
Cant really see a way out of this. Maybe Corbyn will resign once enough structures are in place in ensure a left wing sucessor.

 

[brogdale]

this (from end of June) suggests buthers is right - it talks about MPs splitting off and gaining privileges at Corbyn's expense (chairing some subcomittees and gaining funding), and then



What if Labour splits?

That article makes explicit that any 'breakaway' would have to be just that; it seems that constitutionally the speaker can only anoint the largest group of MPs not in government if they represent a distinct/new party. There is, apparently*, no 'half-way house' open to the rebels; it's shit or bust for them.

*I claim no constitutional expertise, here.

 

[DownwardDog]

Dugdale and Khan coming out pubically in support of smith seems to make no political sense - as hes is going to get flatened in the election leaving them irreconciably opposed to a re-eclected corbyn.

They are just trying to get the result close enough so that having another leadership challenge with somebody else seems feasible

 

[Wilf]

Dugdale and Khan coming out pubically in support of smith seems to make no political sense - as hes is going to get flatened in the election leaving them irreconciably opposed to a re-eclected corbyn. Its a strong signal that the PLP and the rest of the labour establishment will publically refuse to accept the result.
Its now a fight to the death - I think they will try every means at their disposal and some sort of split may happen in order to make labour ever more dysfunctional.
Cant really see a way out of this. Maybe Corbyn will resign once enough structures are in place in ensure a left wing sucessor.

Good point, though Khan is in a much stronger position than Dugdale. After Corbyn is re-elected there are probably 2 scenarios. The first is just a continuation of what we have, open season on Corbyn, daily briefings to the media - the Tories have probably given up keeping a record of soundbites they can use against Corbyn from his own side. Labour with nil chance of winning in 2020. The other is the split, either a slow motion split where the right build towards it over a couple of years, bigging up their (next) chosen candidate and all that - again, completely killing off any chances of even an honourable defeat in 2020 - or getting on with it before the deselections start.

Edit: your point about there being no good way out of it is the key one though. There's no good route for left or right in the party.