Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[two sheds]

The article he refers to (at a skim)

In the weeks before Corbyn’s victory, I wrote a long detailed suggested strategy for his leadership to follow.

has a couple of points but looks long and tedious, too.

 

[killer b]

Weren't they moaning about Corbyn's Stalinist lists when his campaign asked a similar question last week?

 

[two sheds]

Weren't they moaning about Corbyn's Stalinist lists when his campaign asked a similar question last week?

1. clean bicycle
2. buy cheese
3. set aside area for re-education camps
4. ...

 

[brogdale]

Owen Smith receiving said text:

Had to be done...

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Jones sort of does have a point about Corbyn being pretty useless at the media management stuff Blairites were good at.

Thing is though, the PLP are *counting* on Corbyn getting the same treatment as Michael Foot and doing everything in their power to guarantee that, so they can present themselves as 'Labour's only hope' next time around.

 

[Plumdaff]

Jones sort of does have a point about Corbyn being pretty useless at the media management stuff Blairites were good at.

A couple of months ago I was telling anyone who would listen that the PLP should be helping Corbyn out with his admittedly shonky media management.

Having seen the coup in action and the Eagle and Smith leadership campaigns I'm very pleased they left alone.

 

[two sheds]

I think what with Kinnock and "will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" along with Miliband and the bacon sarnie *anyone* leading Labour is going to get pilloried in the press.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

All that stuff about the coup being managed by sharp Blairite PR firms seems not to be very true. Or if it is, they've put the interns on this one.

 

[killer b]

I don't think jones' questions are unreasonable: was his plan to make sure no-one got as far as them with that endless turgid lead up? Talk about effective media strategies...

 

[two sheds]

I don't think jones' questions are unreasonable: was his plan to make sure no-one got as far as them with that endless turgid lead up? Talk about effective media strategies...

Yes I waded through all the turgid stuff to get to one thinking 'yes that's something they should look at' before losing the will to live.

 

[J Ed]

I don't think jones' questions are unreasonable: was his plan to make sure no-one got as far as them with that endless turgid lead up? Talk about effective media strategies...

I agree, but why are they specific to Corbyn? Smith would be better on the media strategy probably, but the rest apply to him as much if not moreso than Corbyn.

 

[Rob Ray]

I think what with Kinnock and "will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" along with Miliband and the bacon sarnie *anyone* leading Labour is going to get pilloried in the press.

There'd be a media honeymoon period if Smith won to help him consolidate power, though it probably wouldn't last all the way to a 2020 election.

 

[J Ed]

There'd be a media honeymoon period if Smith won to help him consolidate power, though it probably wouldn't last all the way to a 2020 election.

It would probably last right up until the Labour right decided to defenestrate him so that they could install one of their own.

 

[two sheds]

Just before the election he'd be suddenly become responsible for any anti-semitism in the party since the 1990s, for example. And loads of it would be discovered, probably one instance a day all through the election campaign.

 

[Rob Ray]

It would probably last right up until the Labour right decided to defenestrate him so that they could install one of their own.

Oh I imagine the Labour right would be happy enough to let him stay a while if he wins, he's only been tacking left in an effort to swipe Corbyn backers after all.

 

[Brainaddict]

I agree, but why are they specific to Corbyn? Smith would be better on the media strategy probably, but the rest apply to him as much if not moreso than Corbyn.

Exactly. The Corbyn media strategy (or lack thereof) does strike me as particularly poor, and I agree that he should have put forward a clearer alternative by now. But all the rest of it is long term trends that Labour has been struggling with for years. Presumably Jones knows this, which means the whole post is quite dishonest.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I agree, but why are they specific to Corbyn? Smith would be better on the media strategy probably, but the rest apply to him as much if not moreso than Corbyn.

Yep. Literally the only thing I've seen from the Labour right/PLP about why they fucked the last election was Tristram Hunt wittering on about needing more flag waving (and definitely not less posh people parachuted into safe Northern seats). Their position isn't mine but there's plenty to criticise Corbyn for. If they were coming up with some coherent ideas and recognition that a lot of the problems the party has aren't his doing then they might get somewhere. All they seem to have is pointing and shouting though.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

All that stuff about the coup being managed by sharp Blairite PR firms seems not to be very true. Or if it is, they've put the interns on this one.

A cynic might suggest they're not trying to win, they're trying to make sure the membership's swing to the left is an electoral disaster.

 

[Sifta]

Not bad from Mason:

Labour: The Way Ahead — Mosquito Ridge

"As the inimitable @chunkymark — a pro-Corbyn taxi driver and artist — put it in an impromptu watercolour: “It’s not Jeremy Corbyn they’re afraid of, it’s you”."

 

[Ole]

Attracting large crowds is a sign of limited electoral appeal. Getting bothered about politics is to behave like a crazed religious cult member. The independent studies that demonstrate media bias against a left wing Labour Party? What independent studies? They don't exist.

These are some of the things I've learned on the Internet this last fortnight.

 

[free spirit]

The numbers at the corbyn rallies seem to indicate that Corbyn's support base has increased since the last leadership elections. Take the Leeds event last night as an example, last time he sold out the royal armouries biggest hall, this time he sold it out and had 1500 people outside the place who couldn't get in.

And that's on the same day as he spoke at a huge rally in Hull, another in York and had 1500 people marching in support of him in Newcastle. So it's not like the supporters were being bussed in from surrounding areas too much.

I can't remember any politician in my lifetime being able to draw anything like those crowds to events around the country as Corbyn.

Someone elsewhere said that Michael Foot was also drawing big crowds but then lost badly.... conveniently missing the role in that played by those who left Labour to form the SDP. Obviously that was Foot's fault, just as Corbyn's being blamed now for potentially splitting the labour party, rather than those who're considering breaking away.

 

[inva]

Not bad from Mason:

Labour: The Way Ahead — Mosquito Ridge

"As the inimitable @chunkymark — a pro-Corbyn taxi driver and artist — put it in an impromptu watercolour: “It’s not Jeremy Corbyn they’re afraid of, it’s you”."

It's very generous of Mason to stop wanking over supermarket self checkouts long enough to deliver the brilliant electoral strategy of 'just lie and promise a ton of stuff to everyone that you won't deliver'. Labour should also emulate Podemos and Syriza. Apparently Podemos, who from what I've heard haven't done very well, prove that Labour doesn't need to worry about swing voters. Or something like that.

I also liked his insight into the composition of the right:

On the right of British politics are: the elite, their fake-tan flunkies, minders and PR people, and a large suburban middle class which will vote Conservative or Libdem forever, unless a major crisis disturbs them

bizarre

Best of all, Labour should 'if possible' make an alliance with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems!

 

[ferrelhadley]

About 15-18% of people would trust Corbyn on the economy, think he is providing a decent opposition and think he would make a better PM than May. He has among the lowest personal rating of any Labour or Tory leader since polling began, he has seen the Labour vote pretty much rooted to its core c. 30% vote on national voting intentions, he has done nothing to to appeal beyond the Labour core and his fanbois seem intent on alienating many within that core who do not like him, his flag ship issue, the nuclear deterrent is the wrong side of public polling. I calculated the average polling from Labour for three time tranches

Labour average Election to Dec 2015 30.81395
Laboue average Jan-Brexit 31.66667
Labour average brexit to now 30.8


Contrary to what people will tell you, the Labour vote is hovering around the 30% level with little actual change. It seems as if a significant % of the Labour vote is currently in spite of St Jeremy rather than because of him.

This is the 2015 GE vote:
Party Leader MPs Votes Of total % Of total
Conservative Party David Cameron 330 50.8% 11,300,109 36.8%
Labour Party Ed Miliband 232 35.7% 9,347,324 30.5%
Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon 56 8.6% 1,454,436 4.7%
Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg 8 1.2% 2,415,862 7.9%
Democratic Unionist Party Peter Robinson 8 1.2% 184,260 0.6%
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 4 0.6% 176,232 0.6%
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 3 0.5% 181,704 0.6%
Social Democratic & Labour Party Alasdair McDonnell 3 0.5% 99,809 0.3%
Ulster Unionist Party Mike Nesbitt 2 0.3% 114,935 0.4%
UK Independence Party Nigel Farage 1 0.2% 3,881,099 12.7%
Green Party Natalie Bennett 1 0.2% 1,157,613 3.8%



Labour got 9.3 million votes, it needs to add something like 2 million voters without driving any voters to other parties, or adding 2 million plus as many more new voters as those who leave for other parties. It needs to do so in marginals where there is little evidence that radical far left politics has much appeal and there is a strong distrust of the current Labour leadership.

You can all hunker down in your echo chamber, smelling each others farts and declaring it Chanel No 5 for the 3 years 9 months. You can sit weeping at the cruelty of the world that does not appreciate the beneficent magnanimity of your holy leader. But in 2020 you will have to face the electorate. If you have not put together a range of policies that millions who did not trust Labour in the economy in 2015 find convincing, do not alienate people who have doubts about your leaderships patriotism and commitment to defending the nation and its values, have a set of changes to employment legislation that does not scare people into thinking a return to the 70s and a host of other issues that form the complex psychological mix that informs peoples voting then you will have pissed away the one shot the left will get in your self indulgence and vanity and the people of this country will get another 5 years of tory rule.

 

[inva]

You can all hunker down in your echo chamber, smelling each others farts and declaring it Chanel No 5 for the 3 years 9 months. You can sit weeping at the cruelty of the world that does not appreciate the beneficent magnanimity of your holy leader. But in 2020 you will have to face the electorate. If you have not put together a range of policies that millions who did not trust Labour in the economy in 2015 find convincing, do not alienate people who have doubts about your leaderships patriotism and commitment to defending the nation and its values, have a set of changes to employment legislation that does not scare people into thinking a return to the 70s and a host of other issues that form the complex psychological mix that informs peoples voting then you will have pissed away the one shot the left will get in your self indulgence and vanity and the people of this country will get another 5 years of tory rule.

who are you talking to?

 

[Cid]

About 15-18% of people would trust Corbyn on the economy, think he is providing a decent opposition and think he would make a better PM than May. He has among the lowest personal rating of any Labour or Tory leader since polling began, he has seen the Labour vote pretty much rooted to its core c. 30% vote on national voting intentions, he has done nothing to to appeal beyond the Labour core and his fanbois seem intent on alienating many within that core who do not like him, his flag ship issue, the nuclear deterrent is the wrong side of public polling. I calculated the average polling from Labour for three time tranches

Labour average Election to Dec 2015 30.81395
Laboue average Jan-Brexit 31.66667
Labour average brexit to now 30.8


Contrary to what people will tell you, the Labour vote is hovering around the 30% level with little actual change. It seems as if a significant % of the Labour vote is currently in spite of St Jeremy rather than because of him.

This is the 2015 GE vote:
Party Leader MPs Votes Of total % Of total
Conservative Party David Cameron 330 50.8% 11,300,109 36.8%
Labour Party Ed Miliband 232 35.7% 9,347,324 30.5%
Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon 56 8.6% 1,454,436 4.7%
Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg 8 1.2% 2,415,862 7.9%
Democratic Unionist Party Peter Robinson 8 1.2% 184,260 0.6%
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 4 0.6% 176,232 0.6%
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 3 0.5% 181,704 0.6%
Social Democratic & Labour Party Alasdair McDonnell 3 0.5% 99,809 0.3%
Ulster Unionist Party Mike Nesbitt 2 0.3% 114,935 0.4%
UK Independence Party Nigel Farage 1 0.2% 3,881,099 12.7%
Green Party Natalie Bennett 1 0.2% 1,157,613 3.8%



Labour got 9.3 million votes, it needs to add something like 2 million voters without driving any voters to other parties, or adding 2 million plus as many more new voters as those who leave for other parties. It needs to do so in marginals where there is little evidence that radical far left politics has much appeal and there is a strong distrust of the current Labour leadership.

You can all hunker down in your echo chamber, smelling each others farts and declaring it Chanel No 5 for the 3 years 9 months. You can sit weeping at the cruelty of the world that does not appreciate the beneficent magnanimity of your holy leader. But in 2020 you will have to face the electorate. If you have not put together a range of policies that millions who did not trust Labour in the economy in 2015 find convincing, do not alienate people who have doubts about your leaderships patriotism and commitment to defending the nation and its values, have a set of changes to employment legislation that does not scare people into thinking a return to the 70s and a host of other issues that form the complex psychological mix that informs peoples voting then you will have pissed away the one shot the left will get in your self indulgence and vanity and the people of this country will get another 5 years of tory rule.

Cheers for making your position clear.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Strange, it took me less time than than you might waste thinking about upgrading to the latest model.

Really? Given I never think about that I doubt that's true![emoji16]


.

 

[free spirit]

You can all hunker down in your echo chamber, smelling each others farts and declaring it Chanel No 5 for the 3 years 9 months. You can sit weeping at the cruelty of the world that does not appreciate the beneficent magnanimity of your holy leader. But in 2020 you will have to face the electorate. If you have not put together a range of policies that millions who did not trust Labour in the economy in 2015 find convincing, do not alienate people who have doubts about your leaderships patriotism and commitment to defending the nation and its values, have a set of changes to employment legislation that does not scare people into thinking a return to the 70s and a host of other issues that form the complex psychological mix that informs peoples voting then you will have pissed away the one shot the left will get in your self indulgence and vanity and the people of this country will get another 5 years of tory rule.

and MPs constantly sniping, plotting, leaking and eventually launching a leadership challenge after a failed campaign to force him to resign helps improve this situation how?

I note you don't mention the 300k or so extra members who've joined because of Corbyn, which should add around £12 million a year to the Labour coffers / nearly £50 million by the next election. Might that not help with the election campaign? Along with the potential for huge numbers of extra activists to help with the campaigning work.

Also Milliband took 4 years to unveil any significant policy positions for the election, started out opposing austerity then ended up changing to an austerity light position by the election. Why should corbyn have to have produced full policy proposals within a year of being elected?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

it's terrible, isn't it.

corbyn taking the labour party to such depths after the triumphs in the 2010 and 2015 elections...

 

[Orang Utan]

Really? Given I never think about that I doubt that's true![emoji16]


.

FUCK OFF

 

[Ole]

The numbers at the corbyn rallies seem to indicate that Corbyn's support base has increased since the last leadership elections. Take the Leeds event last night as an example, last time he sold out the royal armouries biggest hall, this time he sold it out and had 1500 people outside the place who couldn't get in.

And that's on the same day as he spoke at a huge rally in Hull, another in York and had 1500 people marching in support of him in Newcastle. So it's not like the supporters were being bussed in from surrounding areas too much.

I can't remember any politician in my lifetime being able to draw anything like those crowds to events around the country as Corbyn.

Someone elsewhere said that Michael Foot was also drawing big crowds but then lost badly.... conveniently missing the role in that played by those who left Labour to form the SDP. Obviously that was Foot's fault, just as Corbyn's being blamed now for potentially splitting the labour party, rather than those who're considering breaking away.

I don't think large crowds are necessarily indicative of any general electoral appeal, but they probably show he will win any leadership contest held now with his eyes closed.

The 'argument' the Labour right are making regarding Michael Foot's/Tony Benn's large crowds prior to losing in 1983 is literally a textbook logical fallacy that could be taught to children as an outstanding example of an illogical argument.

The Labour right demonstrably don't believe a word they're saying about the most important task being to keep the Conservatives out of government. They show by their actions, time and time again, that they are more than willing to put the Conservatives into government in order to consolidate their power inside the party and take the leadership away from the left.