Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Cid]

Not as much as they care about being career politicians.

There are very hefty salaries awaiting them in any number of think tanks and pro eu business groups too though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not as much as they care about being career politicians.

You mean like the Change lot, currently polling 0%, basically dead & buried.

 

[Wilf]

Any tory mp who votes with corbyn and co. in a VoNC is 100% throwing their career away and they know it. He'll need the DUP.

the likes of Grieve know they are at that point anyway. The question will be how many Labour and Ex Labour Independents vote with Johnson.

 

[Flavour]

You mean like the Change lot, currently polling 0%, basically dead & buried.

They wildly miscalculated. They didn't deliberately kill their careers. They genuinely thought they would become more popular as a result.

 

[Teaboy]

They wildly miscalculated. They didn't deliberately kill their careers. They genuinely thought they would become more popular as a result.

No but they would have known it was a massive risk. If their careers were really all they cared about the easy thing would have be to just stay quiet and sit it out. Lets face it Nick Bowles knows his career as an MP is over and does Grieve etc. I don't think they'll be that many though.

 

[Pickman's model]

They wildly miscalculated. They didn't deliberately kill their careers. They genuinely thought they would become more popular as a result.

"it seemed like a good idea at the time"

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

No but they would have known it was a massive risk. If their careers were really all they cared about the easy thing would have be to just stay quiet and sit it out. Lets face it Nick Bowles knows his career as an MP is over and does Grieve etc. I don't think they'll be that many though.

Once they return to Westminster I reckon there will be a couple of Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems if Johnson doesn't drop the no-deal posturing. Only takes one to put Johnson's majority at -1. So depending on how the independents (non-Tinge obvs) vote...

 

[Wilf]

Once they return to Westminster I reckon there will be a couple of Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems if Johnson doesn't drop the no-deal posturing. Only takes one to put Johnson's majority at -1. So depending on how the independents (non-Tinge obvs) vote...

Not sure if he's a full on no-dealer, but getting brexit through might be the final parliamentary act of the loathsome Frank Field, or similar.

 

[andysays]

If I remember right, Johnson's effective majority is only one.

With things that tight, Remain inclined Tory MPs don't necessarily need to vote against the government, they only need not to vote for it. Wouldn't be surprised if a few of them develop mystery ailments ahead of a VoNC...

 

[kabbes]

Perhaps it would be useful for people to replace the term "working class" with "currently working class".

Everything that is is always just currently is.

 

[Teaboy]

If I remember right, Johnson's effective majority is only one.

With things that tight, Remain inclined Tory MPs don't necessarily need to vote against the government, they only need not to vote for it. Wouldn't be surprised if a few of them develop mystery ailments ahead of a VoNC...

That would be pretty bloody cowardly.

 

[Wilf]

That would be pretty bloody cowardly.

I don't feel you are taking ingrowing toenails and slightly dry skin seriously here. They can devastate lives.

 

[Anju]

A belated reply to this, the underlined in particular and, in a vague way, the whole post (also, for clarification, I'm not involved in LeFT, so this is just me): Brexit is centre stage, with multiple accusations about on one side remainy middle class politics and on the other, accusations that the Lexit left are in some way colluding with racist sentiments (which are wide of the mark). FWIW, personally, I personally could never vote for the EU, but there wasn't anything like a Lexit campaign/vision to get on board with in 2016, so I didn't vote. I do welcome the LeFT campaign, but yeah, I don't really see how it's going to insert itself into working class politics at this point in the game.

But as with so much of the Brexit saga, the cart has been firmly in front of the horse throughout. The absence of working class resistance and politics meant that we got a Brexit vote and not a Lexit vote. And time and time again it seems like the question is posed in terms of where working class/black or other groups should position themselves on Brexit - or indeed whether the Labour Party or other groups are lined up with working class and other groups on Brexit. As an aside, this has left the left the Labour Party doing little more than seeking opportunities, not actually battling capital. But that's not my point here. Surely the best thing to do is if you are concerned about refugees is to get involved in campaigns on migration, against deportations? Surely the working class people you are talking about - inc. yourself - should get involved in working class politics? None of that makes Brexit disappear, but an organised working class politics changes the game entirely. Cart>>>>> Horse.

Can't argue with what you say. I regret not having done anything to help with the things I moan about.

I do believe those on the left who set themselves up as leaders of groups/campaigns need to tailor things to have the widest possible appeal. I think I was the first person here to post about the UK BLM protests. I heard about them from family and friends who were involved with issues around deaths in police custody and other issues that affect black people on a day to day basis. Then the activists moved in and I expressed concerns that normal people were losing interest, for which I was attacked here. Then the activists fucked the whole thing and a promising grass roots organisation died.

There are a lot of working class people doing good things in their communities but not connecting with politics.

 

[Anju]

I do have to say I'm with, Danny here, Anju, that really is a load of unmitigated bollocks.

Fair enough.

 

[Anju]

Not sure if this has been posted anywhere. For anyone, myself included, who thinks Johnson might manoeuvre us out with no deal this is a reassuring picture.

 

[teuchter]

Everything that is is always just currently is.

I wonder why the word "currently" exists.

 

[brogdale]

I wonder why the word "currently" exists.

Can't wait for the thread.

 

[teqniq]

It'll be electric.

 

[Supine]

Can't wait for the thread.

It doesn't currently exist... Or it does...

 

[brogdale]

It'll be electric.

And a right bun-fight.

 

[kabbes]

I wonder why the word "currently" exists.

To distinguish from things that were and things that are to come.

 

[redsquirrel]

I've been reading Tronti on the way to/from work, I'm only a small way through Workers and Capital but it has already proved invaluable in helping to understand the current populisms and how we (socialists) need to engage with them.

------

There's been a repeated demand on this thread, and others, for strong workers organisations that are in favour of leaving. People suggesting that they could accept the arguments for leave if such organisations existed. But this insistence on the necessity of such organisations is both dishonest and goes to the key division between those arguing from a class perspective and those arguing from a progressive perspective.

It is dishonest because where are strong left wing* organisations arguing for remaining in the UK? They no more exist than those that favour leave. So in fact the argument against leaving the EU because left wing organisations don't exist is implicitly an argument for some sections of capital/the state to protect the working class against other sections, the EU to defend the working class against the UK. And here we have the whole problem, that of making capital the prime mover and the working class a pawn of capitals and states.

(*I don't believe this term is useful but it is the one that has been used most often on the thread so I will use it here)

Instead Let's take up Tronti's advice.

We too saw capitalist development first and the workers second. This is a mistake. Now we have to turn the problem on its head, change orientation, and start again from first principles, which means focusing on the struggle of the working class.

From this point of view we can see that the working class (recognising that the organisations it had once developed to advance it's cause are now utterly redundant in the fight with capital after the latest crisis) has engineered a series of political crises. The working class has seized the initiative, once again leaping ahead of its organisations, and used populisms to strike at capital.

The relationship between the two classes is such that whoever has the initiative wins. On the terrain of science, as on the terrain of practice, the strength of either side is inversely proportional to the other: if one grows and develops, the other stays put and thus slips backward. .... If we want to start going forward again, then we need to immobilise the enemy, the better to be able to strike him.

[The working class] must violently break with its own immediate past. It must reject the traditional figure that has been officially attributed to it and surprise the class enemy with its sense of initiative, making a sudden, unpredicted, uncontrollable theoretical advance. And it is worth making our own partial contribution to this new genre, to this modern form of political work.

And it is that last sentence there that is key to understanding what actions socialists should take. Socialist have to take their lead from the working class, have to use the opportunities the working class has created by its actions to help develop new tools that the working class can use to attack capital. To argue that an anti-EU campaign should not be mounted until tools have been developed is to have workers organisations act as the brake on the working class.

Whether one sees more opportunities for the working class with remaining in or leaving the EU no pro-working class politics can start from the point of a return to the status quo ante, to undo the initiative that the working class have created.

We are against the present organisation of struggle and research, but that does not mean that we take the practical and theoretical solutions of the past as our model. Saying no to today’s socialism does not mean having to say yes to yesterday’s capitalism.
....
But when it comes to the problems that concern us, from the perspective of unleashing the decisive struggle against the power of capital, there are unknown worlds that are waiting to be explored. The fate of those who sought another route to India and ended up discovering other continents is very similar to our own present manner of proceeding. For this reason, it is fair enough that the seeds of the new have not yet grown to the maturity of a fruit-bearing plant. It is important to recognise the force of what is being born. If it is alive, it will grow. You cannot criticise someone who is still continuing their research for what they have not yet found.

Those of favour remain and are pro-working class are every bit as much in search of India as those who voted/favour leave.

 

[brogdale]

Meanwhile...amongst all the Parliamentary shenanigans, Smithson suggests that today's launch of a pan-oppo legislative approach to stopping Johnson's Brexit signals the death of any chance of a pre-Halloween GE. It's that FTPA again!

There is a widespread assumption, based on what happened with Theresa May two and a half years ago, that prime ministers still have the power to the name election date in spite of the FTPA. This is because it is said that the main opposition party will always have to back holding an election or else it will look weak.

But given today’s “anti-no deal” agreement between the opposition parties I wonder if that still holds particularly if Johnson/Cummings want to do it before October 31st with the object of taking away MPs chance to scupper the government’s plans.

The FTPA requires a motion to be supported by two thirds of the entire complement of MPs, 433+, in order for an election to be called. A maneuver like the one being speculated on would be seen as being counter to what the opposition MPs want and my guess is that all the opposition parties, including LAB, would not back it.

Even if Corbyn was inclined to support it, after all he keeps on calling for a general election,how many of his MPs would give it their backing? Stopping a no deal Brexit is the imperative of the day not using up the short time available on an election campaign.

I could see all the other opposition parties not supporting the move as well as a fair number of LAB MPs.

Remember in this vote it doesn’t matter for if MPs abstain because that will effectively be a vote against an early election.

This could lead Johnson to try the route of having a vote of no confidence in his government which Tory MPs back. Sure that might get round the the act but it would look contrived and that Tory MPs had voted not to have confidence in their own government would be a key campaigning point.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Then the activists fucked the whole thing and a promising grass roots organisation died.

Oh no. That's terrible. I'm so sorry you have experienced such a thing. Nothing like that has ever happened to any of us. It must be awful.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

caption competition:

 

[Pickman's model]

caption competition:

View attachment 182293

So audience do we hang them or do we shoot them? All vote now

 

[Pickman's model]

It'll be electric.

Together in electric dreams

 

[MickiQ]

That would be pretty bloody cowardly.

and your point is?

 

[Pickman's model]

I've been reading Tronti on the way to/from work, I'm only a small way through Workers and Capital but it has already proved invaluable in helping to understand the current populisms and how we (socialists) need to engage with them.

------

(1) There's been a repeated demand on this thread, and others, for strong workers organisations that are in favour of leaving. People suggesting that they could accept the arguments for leave if such organisations existed. But this insistence on the necessity of such organisations is both dishonest and goes to the key division between those arguing from a class perspective and those arguing from a progressive perspective.

It is dishonest because where are strong left wing* organisations arguing for remaining in the UK? They no more exist than those that favour leave. So in fact the argument against leaving the EU because left wing organisations don't exist is implicitly an argument for some sections of capital/the state to protect the working class against other sections, the EU to defend the working class against the UK. And here we have the whole problem, that of making capital the prime mover and the working class a pawn of capitals and states.

(*I don't believe this term is useful but it is the one that has been used most often on the thread so I will use it here)

Instead Let's take up Tronti's advice.

(2) From this point of view we can see that the working class (recognising that the organisations it had once developed to advance it's cause are now utterly redundant in the fight with capital after the latest crisis) has engineered a series of political crises. The working class has seized the initiative, once again leaping ahead of its organisations, and used populisms to strike at capital.


(3) And it is that last sentence there that is key to understanding what actions socialists should take. Socialist have to take their lead from the working class, have to use the opportunities the working class has created by its actions to help develop new tools that the working class can use to attack capital. To argue that an anti-EU campaign should not be mounted until tools have been developed is to have workers organisations act as the brake on the working class.

(4) Whether one sees more opportunities for the working class with remaining in or leaving the EU no pro-working class politics can start from the point of a return to the status quo ante, to undo the initiative that the working class have created.

(5) Those of favour remain and are pro-working class are every bit as much in search of India as those who voted/favour leave.

i am not persuaded you are right, and i'll outline why. i've put numbers in your post to which i refer in my reply.

(1) like you i don't see the importance or need for strong lw / pro-working class bodies as a pre-requisite to leaving the eu. but i don't believe that in any capitalist democratic exercise any section of society operates wholly independently, that all are to some extent pawns of capital and states - in that the setting of the agenda, through the setting of the question, was very much orchestrated by parliament and the campaigns largely run by politicians and businesspeople for example. tbh this isn't *that* important, as it ought to be a given in any poll.

(2) i am not persuaded that the working class has seized the initiative, as all i see here or in the msm involves the machinations of the political classes here and abroad. aside from some demonstrations the working class has been largely absent, afaics, from pushing things forwards. there has been more activity from the msm and the bourgeois political parties than from the wc. i suspect populisms have made more use of the wc to get where we are today than the wc has made use of populisms.

(3) i am confused by what you're saying here, as - as far as i can see and as implicitly admitted in your (1) i see no tools which have been developed over the last three years, and there's been anti-eu campaigns, albeit orchestrated by the right, for many, many years. perhaps you could give some examples of the new tools socialists have developed. in addition, this all seems to be predicated on 'the working class' being right, or at least being right for the right reasons. the problem here seems to me to be that nowhere in your analysis quoted do you admit that sections of the working class voted leave for reasons such as opposition to immigration and that it may be desirable to address that while remaining committed to their wish to leave the european union. how would your proposed anti-eu campaign differ from the campaigns previously run over many years and that run in 2016?

(4) there is no return to the status quo ante. the last three plus years cannot be effaced from memory. any abject return to the eu fold would bring with it such a loss of ruling class face in this country and such a humiliation around the world that i think new political spaces could open up. the authority of the ruling class to rule, of the political class to govern, of their right to such things has taken a huge blow through their inability to extricate the country from the european union. as i have said frequently on the boards, i don't believe we will leave - not because the desire to do so among the ruling class isn't there: they want to leave, i feel, in large measure to retain their place at the top of the table following the result of june 2016. i don't believe they have the nous, the wherewithal, to deliver a departure which doesn't result in their own diminishment, which delivers in any way the results promised in 2016 of a brave buccaneering nation swashbuckling its way across the globe. the divide in the ruling class, of which the divisions in the house of commons are the most obvious symptom, shows they're effectively paralysed and unable to come up with any way forwards. stay in the eu or depart, the ruling class has been dealt a great blow the results of which may take years to become fully apparent.

(5) let's hope it's worth it when we find this new route.

 

[brogdale]

Here we go...