Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Pickman's model]

Or as I'm just about to start Workers and Capital I'll quote Tronti

Me too. Delighted to see it published.

should have a reading thread for it

 

[Smokeandsteam]

should have a reading thread for it

Given the ongoing failure of participants on the populism reading thread (me included) I would hesitate...

 

[Pickman's model]

Given the ongoing failure of participants on the populism reading thread (me included) I would hesitate...

fair enough, maybe when people have finished the first chapter

 

[philosophical]

At this point the aims are plainly simple.

1. That the central motivation driving the vote to leave the European Union was working class dissatisfaction with the present. This dissatisfaction takes on many forms - unemployment, precarity, low pay, housing, diminishing futures and collapsing public services.

2. To build support and draw awareness to the fact that there is a network of socialists, trade unionists, community activists and others - who are internationalists, who want to build solidarities, who want to support and facilitate working class agency and who want change’ – and who recognise the necessity of leaving the EU trading bloc.

3. That this network recognises that all of these aims are disrupted and weakened by the EU. That ‘remain and reform’ is impossible due to the political economy of the EU, its treaties and the control exerted by the ECB, IMF and the EU based on the single market project.

4. That it is essential that we leave the EU and do so on the basis that we seek to transform Britain in the process. The first step being the election of a Labour Government committed to a social democratic programme but a much longer term process and set of ideas needs to be developed through dialogue and building networks.

5. That if the left fails to provide rational, progressive solutions to economic and social traumas then the far right will inevitably provide further irrational ones.

6. To provide ideas, space and a network for those who wish to support these aims

7. To provide support for working class struggle and unity

In terms of your paragraph about ‘unity’ I think two responses are necessary. Firstly, 35% of labour voters, who voted Labour in the 2017 GE, did vote leave. These are disproportionately clustered in specific areas mainly in the Midlands, Wales, the North, the coastal areas and what Guiluy has described as the ‘peripheralised zones’. Peripheralised in terms of jobs, services, amenities and futures, located close to but in a different world to, the nearby cities. Now, if you add in Labour voters from 1997-2015, who didn’t vote Labour in 2017, but did vote for Brexit then the numbers in these peripheralised zones starts to rise to at least 60% in some of these areas. It is possible to argue, as Paul Mason has, that these areas and communities needs to be effectively abandoned to the far right and be left trapped in a culture. Or you can argue, as I do, that recovery work for progressive politics is of critical importance in these areas. There are no short fixes, no easy routes. There needs to be a long term refocussing and rethinking. Where do we start? You can see already in America with Warren and Sanders and with McDonnell here the basic social democratic ideas – investment, intervention, improved pay, job guarantees for young people, improved amenities, moving beyond the reflexivity of neo-liberalism – that offer a base from which to start. Where we end is part of the discussion.

Second, a lot of labour remainers have confused being pro-Europe and being pro-EU as being the same thing. Given the long run nature of the discussion about Europe – which will take decades - this group, who largely share the impulse for change described above, will increasingly see the contradictions between the trading bloc they currently support and their wider interests and ideas about change.

Your last paragraph (4) is factually incorrect. The diverse working class did, in fact, vote for Brexit. But we can (and probably have already have) argued about what the data tells us so let’s leave this for another time.

All well and good, but since 'leave' peppers all this, where is the solution to the concept of 'leave,' as it applies to the Irish border in the context of the GFA?
If the response is to bounce it on to the Swedish Customs expert geezer, I am sorry to disappoint you that it is no solution at all.
Did you actually watch his appearance in front of the select committee?

 

[krtek a houby]

All well and good, but since 'leave' peppers all this, where is the solution to the concept of 'leave,' as it applies to the Irish border in the context of the GFA?
If the response is to bounce it on to the Swedish Customs expert geezer, I am sorry to disappoint you that it is no solution at all.
Did you actually watch his appearance in front of the select committee?

Again, sorry to be repetitive, it's not the Irish border. It's a British border which was put in Ireland.

 

[krink]

That Tronti book is on the verso site for a tenner + free delivery until end of august

 

[philosophical]

Again, sorry to be repetitive, it's not the Irish border. It's a British border which was put in Ireland.

Yes of course.
I should have been more precise about this.

 

[Pickman's model]

That Tronti book is on the verso site for a tenner + free delivery until end of august

my copy arrived on tuesday

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Working class disaffection was not THE central factor in the 2016 advisory ref.

It was A driving factor.

The other driving factor was bourgeois / reactionary.

The latter is now controlling things and using the former as cover.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Anyway back on the is brexit going to happen stuff.

Obviously all of the hardline stuff from Johnson is about reintroducing threat of leaving with no deal into negotiations to get May deal with movement on backstop, but no signs of the other side falling for it from Merkel and Macron's comments. That's about as far as I've got cos it's dead boring this isn't it.

What do the more sensible brexit geeks think will happen from here then, do I need to buy loads of tinned tomatoes or nah

 

[MickiQ]

Go with the tomatoes mate, I am. Fortunately most of the foods I like freeze well

 

[danny la rouge]

What do the more sensible brexit geeks think will happen from here then, do I need to buy loads of tinned tomatoes or nah

Who knows. But I was brought up to start putting a couple of extra tins per shopping trip into the cupboard going into winter anyway, so just look on it that way: you’ve got some bad weather coverage even if nothing else transpires.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Who knows. But I was brought up to start putting a couple of extra tins per shopping trip into the cupboard going into winter anyway, so just look on it that way: you’ve got some bad weather coverage even if nothing else transpires.

Good advice although I have a tiny kitchen, might have to start keeping tins in the loo

 

[danny la rouge]

Good advice although I have a tiny kitchen, might have to start keeping tins in the loo

I wouldn’t bother amassing enough to brick yourself in, mind.

I’m more worried what’ll happen if medicines dry up - both for myself (I rattle with prescriptions when I run) and generally for the more sick and vulnerable. I don’t trust this lot to have any useful contingency planning in place.

 

[Pickman's model]

I wouldn’t bother amassing enough to brick yourself in, mind.

I’m more worried what’ll happen if medicines dry up - both for myself (I rattle with prescriptions when I run) and generally for the more sick and vulnerable. I don’t trust this lot to have any useful contingency planning in place.

 

[YouSir]

I know some people who've done it, mostly because they've got access to trade accounts anyway, but don't really see the point of stock piling. If there are major issues it won't be a matter of shortages for a week or two - it'll be a major national supply issue. As with medicines it's not something we can really insulate ourselves against. Unless you've got a warehouse and some industrial freezers going spare.

 

[Wilf]

Anyway back on the is brexit going to happen stuff.

Obviously all of the hardline stuff from Johnson is about reintroducing threat of leaving with no deal into negotiations to get May deal with movement on backstop, but no signs of the other side falling for it from Merkel and Macron's comments. That's about as far as I've got cos it's dead boring this isn't it.

What do the more sensible brexit geeks think will happen from here then, do I need to buy loads of tinned tomatoes or nah

Must admit I've not seen anything that really provides an insight into what Johnson's real game is for the next few weeks (me not looking, I'm sure it exists). My pure guess is that he's ultimately shitting it at the thought of no deal, tailbacks of lorries or worse. Or is he listening to the whisperings of Cummings? A further pure guess is that he'll be shamefacedly trying to sell some sort of non-backstop backstop to his party in 30 days. But then I'm not one of the sensible ones.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I won't really stockpile, I can't even be arsed doing a big shop most of the time. Might get a few extra in early October.

 

[Wilf]

I know some people who've done it, mostly because they've got access to trade accounts anyway, but don't really see the point of stock piling. If there are major issues it won't be a matter of shortages for a week or two - it'll be a major national supply issue. As with medicines it's not something we can really insulate ourselves against. Unless you've got a warehouse and some industrial freezers going spare.

I have, erm, a certain amount of codeine available.

 

[YouSir]

I have, erm, a certain amount of codeine available.

See you on the black market in the post apocalypse then

 

[danny la rouge]

I have, erm, a certain amount of codeine available.

PM incoming.

 

[Pickman's model]

See you on the black market in the post apocalypse then

you'll be able to get anything you want from Badgers in the albert

 

[Wilf]

See you on the black market in the post apocalypse then

I'm just off to bury my cache of pot noodle.

 

[danny la rouge]

I know which trees to chew the bark of. I will be running online courses. The code URBAN75GULL gets you 25% off the very reasonable fee.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm just off to bury my cache of pot noodle.

anyone will be able to find them, there'll be a circle of dead plants round the spot

 

[Wilf]

I'm just off to bury my cache of pot noodle.

Actually, fuck that, I'm going the whole hog and setting myself up as a Warlord. My men are already controlling everything that comes in through Teesport.

 

[MrCurry]

The pound seems to have taken a little jump up against the euro in the last hour, despite not very positive news emerging from the Boris / Macron meeting.

I wonder if there’s more to emerge which will offer a ray of hope, or maybe the markets had priced in Boris being told very publicly to get lost.?

 

[Pickman's model]

Actually, fuck that, I'm going the whole hog and setting myself up as a Warlord. My men are already controlling everything that comes in through Teesport.

not sure that's going to work all that well


Teesport - Wikipedia

you'll have all the dredged marine materials you want tho

 

[Proper Tidy]

I have a third of a past its sell by date bottle of Oramorph in my shed if anybody in dire need of pain relief. I've kept it a bit like how spies keep a capsule of cyanide in their cheek

 

[Pickman's model]

The pound seems to have taken a little jump up against the euro in the last hour, despite not very positive news emerging from the Boris / Macron meeting.

I wonder if there’s more to emerge which will offer a ray of hope, or maybe the markets had priced in Boris being told very publicly to get lost.?

View attachment 181772

if johnson jumps off beachy head the pound will soar against the euro, until his successor is announced