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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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I've been reading up on proroguing of Parliament. Its seems highly unlikely that Johnson could make it happen even if he wanted to. Beyond him scrambling through some sort of re-branded version of May's deal is there any route to Brexit happening in October?

Just seems to me that a GE is virtually inevitable now.

The other alternative is that Johnson creates enough heat that enough of the HoC accept the deal that he will come back with.

That deal is likely to be largely May's deal with the Irish backstop issue kicked down the road to phase 2. It will be presented as deal or GE where the Tories will campaign for 'no deal'. At this point a deal with Farage to give him a clear run at labour leave seats comes into play. The game here is to put the HoC under pressure from below with the fear of losing seats and the return of a Tory Government with the ERG firmly in control.
 
give it a few days

My hope would be he pisses everyone off with daft antics and loses the whole think like the bastard he is deserves, but he has a lot of political power given by his large tory election majority and the Brexit party's showing in the euro elections
 
have you seen the balance of parties in the commons?

Yes, but I've just been listening to him on Radio 4 and he knows how to speak.
A lot of the public will push in whatever way the best speaker tells them to, and who can beat him?
Corbyn isn't even close and he's messing about like someone looking to make a pair of a load of odd socks so it isn't going to be him.
Staying in the EU is clearly the way to be, but common sense won't be the winner here until someone steps up and takes boris the gob on properly ... and there isn't much time to stop him.
 
Yes, but I've just been listening to him on Radio 4 and he knows how to speak.
A lot of the public will push in whatever way the best speaker tells them to, and who can beat him?
Corbyn isn't even close and he's messing about like someone looking to make a pair of a load of odd socks so it isn't going to be him.
Staying in the EU is clearly the way to be, but common sense won't be the winner here until someone steps up and takes boris the gob on properly ... and there isn't much time to stop him.

Every comrade has the right to be stupid, but you abuse the privilege.
 
Yes, but I've just been listening to him on Radio 4 and he knows how to speak.
A lot of the public will push in whatever way the best speaker tells them to, and who can beat him?
Corbyn isn't even close and he's messing about like someone looking to make a pair of a load of odd socks so it isn't going to be him.
Staying in the EU is clearly the way to be, but common sense won't be the winner here until someone steps up and takes boris the gob on properly ... and there isn't much time to stop him.
tosh. utter tosh. i've just been watching him at the dispatch box and he's crap. a load of auld flannel which would hardly convince even the most gullible and credulous fool.

if you think he's a powerful prime minister then that only shows how little you grasp the situation.

i ask again: do you understand the balance of political forces within the house of commons?
 
I might be the only person who when he hears the word 'backstop' assumes that people mean the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement even if they don't realize it themselves.
 
The other alternative is that Johnson creates enough heat that enough of the HoC accept the deal that he will come back with.

That deal is likely to be largely May's deal with the Irish backstop issue kicked down the road to phase 2. It will be presented as deal or GE where the Tories will campaign for 'no deal'. At this point a deal with Farage to give him a clear run at labour leave seats comes into play. The game here is to put the HoC under pressure from below with the fear of losing seats and the return of a Tory Government with the ERG firmly in control.
He isn’t going to come back with any new deal. The backstop won’t be allowed into phase 2 in any circumstances.
 
tosh. utter tosh. i've just been watching him at the dispatch box and he's crap. a load of auld flannel which would hardly convince even the most gullible and credulous fool.

It won't convince you, me, or anyone else with a thinking brain, but it will (over time) put other people into his camp. This strong voice positive tone has been used many times over history, and it works. To ignore that just because WE know it's bullshit is a bad move.
 
As for the opposition, especially Corbyn, they all sounded weak and aimless. That crappy set of responses to a strong, targeted speech (Load of bollocks) is not helping.
Boris the gob offered lots (even if it was all bollocks), but the voices of reason and reality came over as a bunch of party poopers devoid of plans, and armed only with insults and half a wit.

The leave lot are going to win this unless strong, powerful people are brought in to fire real shots at the silly sod, and do it with massive confidence as well thought out reality that'll show up what the gob really is.
 
Since he's stocked his cabinet with hard Brexiters, they are gonna go full blaze "it is HAPPENING'' for the next few weeks at least. Yet when it becomes difficult they will panic and try and pass the buck to us, the electorate. So they are going to have to pull off something incredible between now and then to look remotely realistic and not a cabal of headbangers. What the last lot couldn't do in three years they expect a positive attitude will allow them to conclude in three months time. If they screw it up, which they are bound to; the markets, the value of the pound, international trade could free fall. Snowball into a major recession, with Johnson's position surely untenable.

What I 'reckon' is that they will postpone it indefinitely. Politicians are very good at deflecting blame and clinging on in there. So I for one am slightly sceptical and am betting against Johnson's bet with the naysayers that he will put the lead back in Britain's pencil and usher in a golden age.
 
As for the opposition, especially Corbyn, they all sounded weak and aimless. That crappy set of responses to a strong, targeted speech (Load of bollocks) is not helping.
Boris the gob offered lots (even if it was all bollocks), but the voices of reason and reality came over as a bunch of party poopers devoid of plans, and armed only with insults and half a wit.

The leave lot are going to win this unless strong, powerful people are brought in to fire real shots at the silly sod, and do it with massive confidence as well thought out reality that'll show up what the gob really is.

Stop trying to make Boris the gob happen it isn't going to happen it sounds fucking awful and it is not #fetch.

Also please stop with these unstructured stream of consciousness posts. They are tortuous.
 
his night of the long knives-esque massacre of anyone but his own croines in the cabinet has pretty much guaranteed a large group of tory backbenchers who will be very willing to fuck him over.
Be interesting to see what they do when he calls a GE on a "no deal" platform
 
his night of the long knives-esque massacre of anyone but his own croines in the cabinet has pretty much guaranteed a large group of tory backbenchers who will be very willing to fuck him over.

That's lovely to hear, more so because it's true. :thumbs:

Edit - As Labour have shit all to throw at the bastard, back stabbing from his own party may be the only real hope, and has the advantage of making the tories look like the bunch of bastards they are.
 
his night of the long knives-esque massacre of anyone but his own croines in the cabinet has pretty much guaranteed a large group of tory backbenchers who will be very willing to fuck him over.
Be interesting to see what they do when he calls a GE on a "no deal" platform
Been wondering about this. Putting all his enemies on the backbenches with a majority of two is bold/stupid, even more so given brexit, 3 month timeframe, Tory MPs committed to stopping no deal.

Reckon maybe they are gambling on fear of a Corbyn govt as a strong whip.
 
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