Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Borp]

Rather more happens at borders than the administration of excise duties, of course.

But isn't customs the main reason people are arguing why a border is necesarry?

 

[MightyTibberton]

The House of Lords has released a report - is it an Impact Assessment? I dunno! - on Brexit and particularly a no-deal Brexit.

House of Lords - Brexit: deal or no deal - European Union Committee

 

[Silas Loom]

But isn't customs the main reason people are arguing why a border is necesarry?

Yes, but customs generally includes export and import permits and licenses and certifications and all the rest of it. AFAIK HMRC just handles the excise bit of customs, and the inspection bit of customs is managed by what used to be UKBA.

 

[DotCommunist]

The House of Lords has released a report - is it an Impact Assessment? I dunno! - on Brexit and particularly a no-deal Brexit.

House of Lords - Brexit: deal or no deal - European Union Committee

Noel Edmunds was called in for consultation

 

[Wilf]

Noel Edmunds was called in for consultation

Mr Blobby is already running the show.

 

[Borp]

Yes, but customs generally includes export and import permits and licenses and certifications and all the rest of it. AFAIK HMRC just handles the excise bit of customs, and the inspection bit of customs is managed by what used to be UKBA.

The suggestion seemed to be that it could all be handled away from the border. Not sure about inspections though. Will have to look what ukba view is.

 

[gosub]

The suggestion seemed to be that it could all be handled away from the border. Not sure about inspections though. Will have to look what ukba view is.

Home Affairs SC heard evidence from four of the 20 or so agencies tied in to running a border, that its a bad idea - the more inland you bring nasties you want to keep out, be it plague carrying rats, rabid dogs, deadly spiders, plant diseases...the more likely they are to get a toehold

 

[MightyTibberton]

I think they're pretending when they say it's all about a few milk lorries to be honest.

I found this when I was talking to someone about the "Norway option" a while ago:

Is the Norway-Sweden border a model for UK-Ireland?

It's quite technical and includes a link to the HMG official position. The comments are interesting too.

 

[gosub]

I think they're pretending when they say it's all about a few milk lorries to be honest.

I found this when I was talking to someone about the "Norway option" a while ago:

Is the Norway-Sweden border a model for UK-Ireland?

It's quite technical and includes a link to the HMG official position. The comments are interesting too.

That only works if we stay in the Single Market, leave the single market and potentially diverge from its regulatory regime and the checks become much more stringent

 

[Borp]

Home Affairs SC heard evidence from four of the 20 or so agencies tied in to running a border, that its a bad idea - the more inland you bring nasties you want to keep out, be it plague carrying rats, rabid dogs, deadly spiders, plant diseases...the more likely they are to get a toehold

In that particular session I linked to the policy director for animal and plant health at defra said brexit doesn't increase the risk. It may do as time goes by but that there is no immediate increase in risk from day one.

I do need to watch the rest of those hearings though.

 

[2hats]

I found this when I was talking to someone about the "Norway option" a while ago:

Is the Norway-Sweden border a model for UK-Ireland?

It's quite technical and includes a link to the HMG official position. The comments are interesting too.

There was a BBC article about the technology some weeks back. The main upshot of it was that it requires close collaboration between either side to have any chance of working (so a good job HMG hasn’t pissed off any close neighbours recently then) irrespective of how fancy the tech is.

Also, more recently this item with a comment from Swedish minister Ann Linde that their ‘frictionless’ border with Norway only works if both sides are members of the CU/SM and since Norway isn’t in the former there is friction - the same article reports feedback from a few thousand Swedish companies that the country it was most difficult for them to export to was … Norway (more so than China, even). Despite the tech there is paperwork and there are delays at the border.

 

[MightyTibberton]

That only works if we stay in the Single Market, leave the single market and potentially diverge from its regulatory regime and the checks become much more stringent

Sorry, I should have added to the "it's quite technical" that it's far too technical for me! Apologies if it isn't relevant here.

 

[Teaboy]

A couple of years back I worked for a Norwegian company. The manufacturing plant was in Norway which meant everything we sold into the UK market got delivered from Norway. Our stuff would frequently get held up at customs as it was being processed, this made our lead times longer than all of the competition and was one of the reasons we were not competitive. I would hope that we are not heading back to that.

 

[DotCommunist]

Mr Blobby is already running the show.

plenty of crinkley bottoms in the house of lords etc etc

 

[Silas Loom]

The Spectator - that house organ of the insane, flag-waving, no-deal, Singapore-on-Thames, Rexit right - is now calling for a second referendum.

Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum | Coffee House

First and second preference votes for three options - accept the deal, revert to status quo ante, crash out - and AV to determine the winner.

Bring it on, I think remain could win that.

And it's interesting that some Brexitloons will be so angry about any settlement which looks like soft Brexit that they'd happily roll the dice again.

 

[Pickman's model]

The Spectator - that house organ of the insane, flag-waving, no-deal, Singapore-on-Thames, Rexit right - is now calling for a second referendum.

Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum | Coffee House

First and second preference votes for three options - accept the deal, revert to status quo ante, crash out - and AV to determine the winner.

Bring it on, I think remain could win that.

And it's interesting that some Brexitloons will be so angry about any settlement which looks like soft Brexit that they'd happily roll the dice again.

It's no surprise you were so mistaken about the EFTA overtures when you mistake a blog for the spectator changing direction.

You're all over the shop, chuck

 

[Wilf]

plenty of crinkley bottoms in the house of lords etc etc

He David Davis told today’s Mail on Sunday: “HBOS Brexit had robbed me of my marriage, my family, my businesses, my long-standing friend and business partner; my income, my investments, my self-respect, my reputation, my privacy, my physical and mental health.

“It cost me my security, my image rights, my collection of classic cars – and very nearly my life.”

Noel Edmonds secures litigation funding for Lloyds Bank legal battle

 

[Pickman's model]

A couple of years back I worked for a Norwegian company. The manufacturing plant was in Norway which meant everything we sold into the UK market got delivered from Norway. Our stuff would frequently get held up at customs as it was being processed, this made our lead times longer than all of the competition and was one of the reasons we were not competitive. I would hope that we are not heading back to that.

We're not.

It will be worse than that.

 

[Wilf]

The Spectator - that house organ of the insane, flag-waving, no-deal, Singapore-on-Thames, Rexit right - is now calling for a second referendum.

Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum | Coffee House

First and second preference votes for three options - accept the deal, revert to status quo ante, crash out - and AV to determine the winner.

Bring it on, I think remain could win that.

And it's interesting that some Brexitloons will be so angry about any settlement which looks like soft Brexit that they'd happily roll the dice again.

I think there's a fair chance that could ne the outcome, through no more than 50-50. In any referendum it would be very easy for Brexiteers to portray the re-run as elites ignoring the people - pretty much what it would be. And for that reason alone, nobody in government or indeed Corbyn is/are going to seriously argue for a re-run.

 

[The39thStep]

Can't see there being a second referendum under this govt tbh and Labour would be barmy to call for one.

 

[Silas Loom]

Agreed. The maths is one of putting together diehard rebellious Brexiteers with diehard rebellious Remainers in the HoC. That still doesn't beat the craven pragmatists.

That said, though, lexiteers of Urban, how would you vote in those circumstances? Assume that the deal is - essentially - EEA + CU for an extendable, open-ended transition period with a view to Canada-style agreement in the future.

 

[Wilf]

Can't see there being a second referendum under this govt tbh and Labour would be barmy to call for one.

Indeed. In some fairy godmother free wishes, Cher related scenario, May, Corbyn and plenty of others would wish they could turn back time to a more innocent era where the ideologically anti-EU lot just huffed and puffed in the golf club. Opening it up to a referendum, which allowed everybody else the opportunity to vent their anxieties and contempt for the whole shooting match is a genie that doesn't go back in the bottle. It's not a Lexit genie because there never was a Lexit, but the sentiments expressed were real.

 

[Wilf]

Agreed. The maths is one of putting together diehard rebellious Brexiteers with diehard rebellious Remainers in the HoC. That still doesn't beat the craven pragmatists.

That said, though, lexiteers of Urban, how would you vote in those circumstances? Assume that the deal is - essentially - EEA + CU for an extendable, open-ended transition period with a view to Canada-style agreement in the future.

Good luck in translating that into a snappy ballot paper question.

 

[MightyTibberton]

David Cameron - lobbying China for investment firm
Daniel Hanan - currently on speaking tour in Argentina
Douglas Carswell - condescending tweets and not-at-all sinister "big data election campaigns" company with Brexit campaign git
Nigel Farage - no more politics for me, except the pension of course
...

 

[Silas Loom]

Good luck in translating that into a snappy ballot paper question.

I guess that by then it will just be called "the deal", I'm only defining it in advance of reality so that the Lexit oddsters can answer the question.

 

[Wilf]

Nigel Farage - no more politics for me, except the pension of course
...

That's the beef I have with the universe. Falange has got 'look at me, I won brexit' at the heart of his self image. A smug cunt doing the chat shows, raking it in till the end of recorded time. Instead, every single fucking day of his miserable life should be made up of paper cuts, stones in shoes, burnt toast and stubbed toes. C'mon karma, you lazy bastard, do your fucking stuff!

 

[MightyTibberton]

Maybe the FBI will karma him?

 

[Wilf]

I guess that by then it will just be called "the deal", I'm only defining it in advance of reality so that the Lexit oddsters can answer the question.

As a (semi-detached) member of the Lexit oddster community you'll be hearing from my solicitor. Or twitter.

 

[Wilf]

Maybe the FBI will karma him?

Flurry of paper cuts requiring a blended blood donation from all of the 27.

 

[flypanam]

That's the beef I have with the universe. Falange has got 'look at me, I won brexit' at the heart of his self image. A smug cunt doing the chat shows, raking it in till the end of recorded time. Instead, every single fucking day of his miserable life should be made up of paper cuts, stones in shoes, burnt toast and stubbed toes. C'mon karma, you lazy bastard, do your fucking stuff!

2018 will be 2016's murderous little sister...