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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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I'll agree with the rest. But that really is just nonsense. Of course continued EU membership would have made their migration status more secure. With continued EU membership they wouldn't be migrants at all, in effect.

Would you accept "would not be any safer in the long run."?

Would you accept that the status of EU as well as non-EU migrants within the EU as a whole is far less secure than it was 5 years ago?
 
Would you accept "would not be any safer in the long run."?
I don't accept that. We can know that their status will be less secure in the short term due to brexit. We can only guess at possible long runs, all of which depend on how various short terms go. I would ask you this: Do brexit and its consequences for EU migrants in the short term make a more positive outcome in the long run more or less likely? My answer is 'less likely'.

Brexit is not a reaction to the rightward shift across Europe. It is a manifestation of that shift.
 
I can't see the relevance of windrush to the rights of EU citizens in each others member states. This is precisely the sort of increased vulnerability EU passport holders fear from Brexit, becoming another tier of increasingly vulnerable migrant workers. Just because the EU didn't prevent previous cycles of restructuring and job losses, which British policy has driven to such an extent that its hard to hold the European neoliberal project all that responsible for those in this country, it doesn't mean that Brexit won't usher in another cycle of creative destruction.

We don't disagree that much. Varoufakis's And the Poor Suffer what they Must provides a clear analysis of why the EU is beyond reform before concluding that we should reform the EU, which wasn't all that persuasive to me. Rather than the referendum being the cause of the current situation, it was much more a symptom of more fundamental issues that remain politics struggles to confront, but it's unclear what a retreat into national politics will achieve either. Most of the energy behind remain comes from the liberal centre ground in any case. Issues on the left have as much with the inability of Brexit supporters to narrate whats going on positively to those who have been left reeling by event as it does with those people being distracted by hopes of a return to normality.
 
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I'm not making a case for Lexit. Never have, don't like the word or what it seems to mean.

You keep saying that, but you also say you voted leave in the hope that it would make an opportunity for a left-wing government in the UK.

You can say that's not a 'Lexit' position, but others can decide for themselves.
 
I can't see the relevance of windrush to the rights of EU citizens in each others member states. This is precisely the sort of increased vulnerability EU passport holders fear from Brexit, becoming another tier of increasingly vulnerable migrant workers. Just because the EU didn't prevent previous cycles of restructuring and job losses, which British policy has driven to such an extent that its hard to hold the European neoliberal project all that responsible for those that have occurred in this country, it doesn't mean that Brexit won't usher in another cycle of creative destruction.

We don't disagree that much. Varoufakis's And the Poor Suffer what they Must provides a clear analysis of why the EU is beyond reform before concluding that we should reform the EU, which wasn't all that persuasive to me. Rather than the referendum being the cause of the current situation, it was much more a symptom of more fundamental issues that remain politics struggles to confront, but it's unclear what a retreat into national politics will achieve either. Most of the energy behind remain comes from the liberal centre of politics in any case. Issues on the left have as much with the inability of Brexit supporters to narrate whats going on positively to those who have been left reeling by event than it does with people being distracted by hopes of a return to normality.

My point re Windrush is that the direction of travel not just in Britain but around the world is making the status of all migrants less secure, including within the EU itself. There are so many anti-migrant govts either in power or on the way to power within the EU now that quite soon the EU will reflect that.

Perhaps we don't disagree that much, remember this started because I pointed out the 'lies on the bus' thing is just pointless. But I'm not arguing for a "retreat into national politics", not that national politics ever went away. I'm not even saying that what's going on is positive. I'm just saying the Tories are in pieces and in danger of splitting over this question and they are there for the taking should we choose it. Obviously, that means not just bringing the govt down, but agitating for an alternative that offers people the hope of a better future. Outside of the EU there are many possible futures, inside the EU means accepting the 'golden straightjacket'.
 
You keep saying that, but you also say you voted leave in the hope that it would make an opportunity for a left-wing government in the UK.

You can say that's not a 'Lexit' position, but others can decide for themselves.

I didn't want the referendum to happen and I didn't think it would make radical social change any more likely or easier to achieve. That to me is what is meant by Lexit.

What I've tried to do is recognise the referendum was happening and that the left/working class had three basic options:

1) Campaign for Remain, in which case you've got to make a positive case for the EU and you will look like a lieing hypocrite prepared to junk your own long held politics at the first sign of turbulence.
2) Campaign for abstention, which I did briefly consider but is lets face it a bit daft when everyone is being told how incredibly important this all is.
3) Campaign for Leave while stressing that in or out we have to take on the Tories and fight for socialist change if we ever want things to improve.
 
No - you just have to satisfy yourself that on balance, Leave is not going to produce a better situation. No hypocrisy required.

This is what you don't get. That can't work. The second you say that you're in favour of an organisation you're opposed to, you become incoherent. What you say no longer makes sense.

Perhaps you have the luxury of passively observing politics and society, and approaching elections and referendums with the mentality of a consumer. I don't know. I am an active trade unionist and socialist and I can't and don't want to approach politics like that.
 
No, it's a reaction to the existing order, and it's confused, as is to be expected.
It is a reaction to the existing order, yes, certainly. I'm not so sure how confused it is, though. It is a nationalist reaction primarily, and as such its most vocal advocates fit in rather well with other r/w nationalist/proto-fascist movements across Europe.
 
It is a reaction to the existing order, yes, certainly. I'm not so sure how confused it is, though. It is a nationalist reaction primarily, and as such its most vocal advocates fit in rather well with other r/w nationalist/proto-fascist movements across Europe.

If that's true, how come there are so many nationalist remainers in the UK and how come so many of the hard right parties across Europe are not explicitly anti-EU?
 
This is what you don't get. That can't work. The second you say that you're in favour of an organisation you're opposed to, you become incoherent. What you say no longer makes sense.

Perhaps you have the luxury of passively observing politics and society, and approaching elections and referendums with the mentality of a consumer. I don't know. I am an active trade unionist and socialist and I can't and don't want to approach politics like that.
'Lesser of two evils' isn't incoherent.
 
If that's true, how come there are so many nationalist remainers in the UK and how come so many of the hard right parties across Europe are not explicitly anti-EU?
Most of the most significant of them are vehemently and explicitly anti-EU. France, Holland, Germany, Austria, Sweden... How many examples do you want? Europe of Nations and Freedom, they call themselves in the EU parliament. Google it.
 
This is what you don't get. That can't work. The second you say that you're in favour of an organisation you're opposed to, you become incoherent.

You don't have to say you're in favour of it - you just have to say you're in even less favour of the alternative.

Does the 'incoherence' only kick in when someone asks you the question? If your position is that not being in favour of the EU means that you cannot refuse an opportunity to leave it - then why were you against having the referendum in the first place?
 
Did it? How?

In France, you could make a good case that it kept the FN out of the presidential palace.

You might think it's not a good strategy, but that doesn't make it incoherent.

Does the Macron Presidency make a Le Pen Presidency more or less likely in the future?
 
You don't have to say you're in favour of it - you just have to say you're in even less favour of the alternative.

Does the 'incoherence' only kick in when someone asks you the question? If your position is that not being in favour of the EU means that you cannot refuse an opportunity to leave it - then why were you against having the referendum in the first place?

If I had the choice, I would rather a left wing govt came to power that was sufficiently radical to defy EU law, leading to a confrontation that saw the UK leave as a result of breaking with neoliberalism.

I'm against referendums in general. They are not the political instrument I want to use. That doesn't mean you can just ignore them when they happen. If I lived in Ireland I would have preferred a radical govt to come to power promising abortion rights for example, but if I lived in Ireland I wouldn't have abstained or voted against abortion rights in the referendum.

We make our own history but not in circumstances of our own choosing.
 
If I had the choice, I would rather a left wing govt came to power that was sufficiently radical to defy EU law, leading to a confrontation that saw the UK leave as a result of breaking with neoliberalism.

I'm against referendums in general. They are not the political instrument I want to use. That doesn't mean you can just ignore them when they happen. If I lived in Ireland I would have preferred a radical govt to come to power promising abortion rights for example, but if I lived in Ireland I wouldn't have abstained or voted against abortion rights in the referendum.

We make our own history but not in circumstances of our own choosing.
That doesn't answer the question.
 
That doesn't answer the question.

You asked why I was against a referendum. I've answered your question.

I've always opposed the EU in the exact same way I oppose the Tories and New Labour. The referendum came along and I made a decision coherent with my politics.

Maybe this will make it easier for you - assuming you consider yourself in some way connected to the radical left and are opposed, in the abstract at least, to the neoliberal EU, how would you go about raising the kind of political change you would want to see at the same time as arguing in favour of membership of an organisation whose politics you don't support?
 
You asked why I was against a referendum. I've answered your question.

I've always opposed the EU in the exact same way I oppose the Tories and New Labour. The referendum came along and I made a decision coherent with my politics.

Maybe this will make it easier for you - assuming you consider yourself in some way connected to the radical left and are opposed, in the abstract at least, to the neoliberal EU, how would you go about raising the kind of political change you would want to see at the same time as arguing in favour of membership of an organisation whose politics you don't support?
what teuchter's really annoyed about is that there wasn't a lock on the eu's door
 
Would you accept "would not be any safer in the long run."?

Would you accept that the status of EU as well as non-EU migrants within the EU as a whole is far less secure than it was 5 years ago?
The migration status of EU migrants within the EU is less secure than it was five years ago? That doesn't even makes sense. The only difference to any such migrants status comes directly from Brexit, so, no. You are just plain wrong.

Come on. Just because a thing is, on balance, good, doesn't mean it has no negative consequences. And we should be upfront and honest about those, or you get a result like Labour's. And NotoEU not even bothering standing.
 
The migration status of EU migrants within the EU is less secure than it was five years ago? That doesn't even makes sense. The only difference to any such migrants status comes directly from Brexit, so, no. You are just plain wrong.

Come on. Just because a thing is, on balance, good, doesn't mean it has no negative consequences. And we should be upfront and honest about those, or you get a result like Labour's. And NotoEU not even bothering standing.

You know what I mean, EU citizens who live/work in different countries to the ones they are also citizens of, whatever the phrase is.

Legal status can be undermined and suspended, look at this from the Dutch govt: Dutch Government Asks European Commission to Suspend Visa-Free Movement for Albanians

It's not just about legal status either, as this points to: The past, present and future of free movement in the EU

I wish No 2 EU had stood and I wish Labour had talked about "no new immigration controls" and "no deportations" as they had in the 2017 GE, for the record. But we are where we are.
 
You know what I mean, EU citizens who live/work in different countries to the ones they are also citizens of, whatever the phrase is.

Legal status can be undermined and suspended, look at this from the Dutch govt: Dutch Government Asks European Commission to Suspend Visa-Free Movement for Albanians

It's not just about legal status either, as this points to: The past, present and future of free movement in the EU

I wish No 2 EU had stood and I wish Labour had talked about "no new immigration controls" and "no deportations" as they had in the 2017 GE, for the record. But we are where we are.
Don't think Albania in the eu
 
You asked why I was against a referendum. I've answered your question.
You just answered it by saying you are against referendums in general.

My point was that not wanting a referendum to leave the EU (even though you strongly oppose the EU), seems similar to voting not to leave the EU under unfavourable conditions (even though you strongly oppose the EU).

I don't think either position is incoherent. You think the latter is, but not the former, for some reason.
 
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