Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[gentlegreen]

Anyway time to do something more interesting for a bit ...

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Is there any strong reason not to believe that we're heading for:

* Govt loses vote on May's deal
* May resigns and/or vote of no confidence
* Another general election
* Labour come around to the idea of a second referendum and win (although probably not a majority)
* Second referendum is a clear Remain win, Labour govt cancel Article 50 and we all go back to how things were in 2016

?

Aside from not having a general election, I'm not doing too badly in this prediction.

 

[butchersapron]

The only thing you have right so far is the first one.

 

[Mr Moose]

Thing is the Labour proposition is still a 'good' deal first. If Labour, either in Govt or in conjunction with the Tories, delivered the deal they spoke of, a customs union etc. would that be enough for the Remain wing of the Labour Party? It would be enough for me, 'respect' the crap vote, but make the best of it/neuter the excesses ahead of the next election, but would Remainers say 'fair play' or would it all be 'wicked' Jeremy enabled Brexit forever and a day?

 

[butchersapron]

Thing is the Labour proposition is still a 'good' deal first. If Labour, either in Govt or in conjunction with the Tories, delivered the deal they spoke of, a customs union etc. would that be enough for the Remain wing of the Labour Party? It would be enough for me, 'respect' the crap vote, but make the best of it/neuter the excesses ahead of the next election, but would Remainers say 'fair play' or would it all be 'wicked' Jeremy enabled Brexit forever and a day?

What's it got to do with you?

 

[Mr Moose]

What's it got to do with you?

Lol.

 

[butchersapron]

Well what exactly are you going to do if it's not enough? What are you going to do if it is? The fact, remainers have argued for no popular participation in leaving the eu - you even went to court to make sure. The idea that you are or we now have a say after you making legally crystal clear that we do not and that we should not is a bit sickening.

 

[butchersapron]

Enough for me lol indeed. Wow, things have suddenly changed.

 

[Wilf]

Hopefully quite a few gammons have blown a fuse since then - and many more after the event.

FFS.

 

[butchersapron]

FFS.

It's the apolitical choice.

 

[Cloo]

I don't think we're gonna leave on the 29th March... my (totally uninformed) money is on the agony being stretched out longer. I fear we're probably still leaving at the end of it, though.

 

[Wilf]

I've been travelling all afternoon so not heard much detail, however I agree with the notion of Corbyn losing his bottle. I can see why he resisted the second referendum and also why he seems to have crumbled now, but ultimately it's a shift of position, which is the problem. Remainers delude themselves that they are linked to or representing a current out there, even if they are mistaking guardianista/remain demo people as actual people. But Corbyn hasn't made much effort to connect with leaver sentiment, regardless of his speaking tours. That's one of the reasons why the polls are not shifting towards Labour (regardless of the true picture in terms of real votes). Thornberry, Soubry and the rest are closer to their people than Corbyn is to his (potential) people.

 

[butchersapron]

I've been travelling all afternoon so not heard much detail, however I agree with the notion of Corbyn losing his bottle. I can see why he resisted the second referendum and also why he seems to have crumbled now, but ultimately it's a shift of position, which is the problem. Remainers delude themselves that they are linked to or representing a current out there, even if they are mistaking guardianista/remain demo people as actual people. But Corbyn hasn't made much effort to connect with leaver sentiment, regardless of his speaking tours. That's one of the reasons why the polls are not shifting towards Labour (regardless of the true picture in terms of real votes). Thornberry, Soubry and the rest are closer to their people than Corbyn is to his (potential) people.

Their people beckon apocalypse.

 

[Mr Moose]

Well what exactly are you going to do if it's not enough? What are you going to do if it is? The fact, remainers have argued for no popular participation in leaving the eu - you even went to court to make sure. The idea that you are or we now have a say after you making legally crystal clear that we do not and that we should not is a bit sickening.

I’m not sure I get what you mean. If you mean the requirement for Parliament to vote on it how does that stop ‘popular participation’?

What participation was on offer from the Leave side anyway? Thanks for the vote, stand aside while we deregulate.

 

[butchersapron]

It would be enough for me

 

[Mr Moose]

It would be enough for me

Heavens sake butchers. Try not to be so over-dramatic.

 

[butchersapron]

Heavens sake butchers. Try not to be so over-dramatic.

So nothing has changed? Right.

 

[Wilf]

I’m not sure I get what you mean. If you mean the requirement for Parliament to vote on it how does that stop ‘popular participation’?

What participation was on offer from the Leave side anyway? Thanks for the vote, stand aside while we deregulate.

I think it's SpineyNorman time again:

I don't see the point in supporting or opposing it. It's not my issue, both sides are my enemies and there's fuck all I can do to influence it.

 

[Mr Moose]

So nothing has changed? Right.

Enlighten me. The noose looks just as tight.

 

[butchersapron]

Enlighten me. The noose looks just as tight.

Now that he may have won you over tell me, what's changed?

 

[Mr Moose]

I think it's SpineyNorman time again:

Or to you, what participation on the basis of a vote to ‘return’ sovereignty to Parliament? Not to a workers committee, but to Parliament so it could seek trade deals with the US and put up a bigger fence.

 

[Mr Moose]

Now that he may have won you over tell me, what's changed?

‘He’?

 

[butchersapron]

Enlighten me. The noose looks just as tight.

The EU as noose is good metaphor. In what ways would you say?

 

[butchersapron]

‘He’?

Last i checked the man you hate to love is a man.

 

[Mr Moose]

Last i checked the man you hate to love is a man.

Corbyn? Why do you think a second vote wins me over? I don’t think it’s a good idea.

Fucks sake he’s not that lovable. You simply want him hated for the correct reasons.

 

[butchersapron]

Corbyn? Why do you think a second vote wins me over? I don’t think it’s a good idea.

Fucks sake he’s not that lovable. You simply want him hated for the correct reasons.

What on earth do you think that you posted a few minutes ago? It's up there. Have a look.

 

[Mr Moose]

What on earth do you think that you posted a few minutes ago? It's up there. Have a look.

I’m not playing cryptic bollocks. I simply don’t believe in the opportunity presented by Brexit that you appear to. It’s more and more nationalism and spread ‘em for a trade deal with someone else instead. This is not escape.

Best outcome is a fudged Leave, park it, deflate nationalism, Labour win the election, build inside and out.

Bed beckons, have a good night.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Chuka is calling for disciplinary action against any Labour MP's who don't follow Corbyn's line and vote for a second referendum amendment.

The brass neck of that fucker!

E2A: Seemed to be anyway - on Newsnight. "What will be done about Labour MP's who refuse to support a second referendum?"

 

[BobDavis]

I’m not playing cryptic bollocks. I simply don’t believe in the opportunity presented by Brexit that you appear to. It’s more and more nationalism and spread ‘em for a trade deal with someone else instead. This is not escape.

Best outcome is a fudged Leave, park it, deflate nationalism, Labour win the election, build inside and out.

Bed beckons, have a good night.

Agree with this. I don’t think voters will go for any sort of radical lexit & if a party cannot get a majority on a lexit manifesto then there will not be a lexit government. What Labour offered at last election was more popular with voters than the mainstream media ever believed it would be & brexit or no brexit an overall majority at next GE for Labour would certainly be a better outcome for the lower paid in this country than Tories or some sort of centrist coalition.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Agree with this. I don’t think voters will go for any sort of radical lexit & if a party cannot get a majority on a lexit manifesto then there will not be a lexit government. What Labour offered at last election was more popular with voters than the mainstream media ever believed it would be & brexit or no brexit an overall majority at next GE for Labour would certainly be a better outcome for the lower paid in this country than Tories or some sort of centrist coalition.

Voters wouldn't go for a wadical lemain either so where does that leave us?