Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[kabbes]

She's an expert in the quackery that is homeopathy.

Not somebody you want advising you on how to treat your cancer, then.

 

[DotCommunist]

economists are invested with a more shamanic power than homeopaths. Everyone knows homeopaths are full of it but you put that dragons den presenter on bbc news and he is A Voice of Authority

 

[Silas Loom]

He's not actually an economist, is he?

(ETA - actually, he is. Thought he was just a correspondent turned presenter)

 

[DotCommunist]

He's not actually an economist, is he?

' In October 2001,Davis took over from Peter Jay as the BBC's economics editor. He left this post in April 2008 to become a presenter on BBC Radio 4's Today programme'

PPE rather than pure E tho

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Not somebody you want advising you on how to treat your cancer, then.

Nah.

Incidentally we rented a villa in France for six weeks a couple of years ago to help us all get over BB2's meningitis. The owner of that place introduced himself via email as a Doctor (Homeopathy). One night Frau Bahn and I got on one and ran out of booze, we broke in to his locked booze cupboard and necked a bottle of vodka that had only had a sip already drunk from it. Frau Bahn refilled the bottle with water, "It'll have the memory of vodka." she said. Which is about the funniest thing she's ever said.

 

[Silas Loom]

In October 2001,Davis took over from Peter Jay as the BBC's economics editor. He left this post in April 2008 to become a presenter on BBC Radio 4's Today programme

And more importantly he worked at the IFS.

 

[2hats]

Is she an expert? Or just a quack that thinks she is an expert?

See also: religion.

We have seismologists that understand plate tectonics incredibly well, but if one predicted where an earthquake is going to be next year, you'd tell him to get to fuck. (Warning: my understanding of seismology is very limited and this analogy may not actually work).

You’re on shaky ground!
We are getting to the stage that for some systems we can see that an event is very likely, perhaps imminent for a given location. Predicting the precise timing though is what is difficult (not unlike state of the art weather modelling - we can foresee the potential nature/size/evolutionary path of an event however the timing can be a bit off, and in that case delta time => delta location).

Anyway, back to the train crash.

 

[ruffneck23]

The DUP will 'not accept' Brexit deal being brokered by May if it 'separates' Northern Ireland from rest of UK

 

[Silas Loom]

I'm not sure if someone else said the same thing upthread, or if I'm quoting one of the Guardian opiners who fill your blackened anarchist hearts with such rage, but the NI clusterfuck is such a fantastic excuse for revoking A50 and chucking the whole thing over to a Royal Commission to report on in 2028 that if May doesn't take it, she's an idiot.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

Striking a deal that effectively leaves NI in the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves is not going to go down well with the evolution deniers, It will take a while, couple of decades at least but the more NI becomes a special case, the more people are going to ask exactly why NI is still part of the UK, It's unthinkable now but once mainstream politicians at Westminster start asking that then the Union is stuffed.
In the shorter term if NI gets a special deal there is no way on Earth, the Scots aren't going to demand one as well, even if they can't hold that over the head of the Tories they will certainly do so over a Labour government.
I'm going to have start buying popcorn by the sack at this rate.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

economists are invested with a more shamanic power than homeopaths. Everyone knows homeopaths are full of it but you put that dragons den presenter on bbc news and he is A Voice of Authority

Economics isn't a proper science like physics or biology, it's more like pyschology a sort of quasi-science much of which is opinion but there are some hard facts in there though, the concept of supply and demand has pretty much proven itself unassailable, homeopathy is like religion just sheer drivel.

 

[Winot]

Economics isn't a proper science like physics or biology, it's more like pyschology a sort of quasi-science much of which is opinion but there are some hard facts in there though, the concept of supply and demand has pretty much proven itself unassailable, homeopathy is like religion just sheer drivel.

There is a prominent philosopher of science (Paul Feyerabend) who argues quite convincingly that even science isn't a science. He puts scientists on the same level as witch doctors.

ETA witch doctors not with doctors

 

[gosub]

I don't do twitter nor LBC. Could someone who does please kick this cunt's stool from under him. He doesn't speak for 17.4million people and he's had nearly 20 years on the snide, been paid shed loads of tax payers money and has never actually formulated a plan for leaving the EU.

 

[teqniq]

Taking a nice little pension too

 

[Fingers]

Ha ha

 

[Winot]

Yep Sturgeon's been out of the blocks pretty quick to say the same.

 

[agricola]

This isn't a special status for NI, its an acceptance that the UK as a whole will be in regulatory alignment with the EU. It can work no other way.

 

[Silas Loom]

This isn't a special status for NI, its an acceptance that the UK as a whole will be in regulatory alignment with the EU. It can work no other way.

You'd have thought so. But Arlene presumably has been briefed otherwise. She can't just be cavilling because she's such an ardent Brexiteer.

 

[gosub]

This isn't a special status for NI, its an acceptance that the UK as a whole will be in regulatory alignment with the EU. It can work no other way.

concur. Which is even more government by fax than EFTA is supposed to be but I suppose 'immigrants!' makes it alright to some

 

[kabbes]

Economics isn't a proper science like physics or biology, it's more like pyschology a sort of quasi-science much of which is opinion but there are some hard facts in there though, the concept of supply and demand has pretty much proven itself unassailable, homeopathy is like religion just sheer drivel.

Psychology is fundamentally driven by an attempt to deal scientifically with problems that are difficult to deal with scientifically. Experiments are performed all the time, involving hypotheses, controls and statistical evaluation of the outcomes. Qualitative analytical methods have been developed to try to apply some rigour to richer data sources. The result is something that makes testable predictions and adapts according to whether or not those predictions are accurate. To put it in the same bracket as economics is highly insulting.

 

[agricola]

You'd have thought so. But Arlene presumably has been briefed otherwise. She can't just be cavilling because she's such an ardent Brexiteer.

TBH she has probably been begged to suggest otherwise as part of the confidence and supply deal; if she came out and said that it was a UK-wide agreement the sky would very quickly fall in on May's head.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

London staying in the EU and the rest of England being out is barmy by any standards, London already gets more than its fair share of investment how much worse would it get under those circumstances? We might as well just bulldoze everything north of Milton Keynes flat and just forget it exists.

 

[Silas Loom]

London staying in the EU and the rest of England being out is barmy by any standards, London already gets more than its fair share of investment how much worse would it get under those circumstances? We might as well just bulldoze everything north of Milton Keynes flat and just forget it exists.

It's not a serious suggestion. It's the NI deal giving heart to soft Brexit advocates.

 

[Santino]

Psychology is fundamentally driven by an attempt to deal scientifically with problems that are difficult to deal with scientifically. Experiments are performed all the time, involving hypotheses, controls and statistical evaluation of the outcomes. Qualitative analytical methods have been developed to try to apply some rigour to richer data sources. The result is something that makes testable predictions and adapts according to whether or not those predictions are accurate. To put it in the same bracket as economics is highly insulting.

Psychology may be full of unrepeatable findings, but at least they are in principle things that can be proven or disproven. Economic theories seem to be immune to evidence.

 

[gosub]

Psychology may be full of unrepeatable findings, but at least they are in principle things that can be proven or disproven. Economic theories seem to be immune to evidence.

MRI scanners and the proposed move away from p<=0.05 will add to the sciencyness of pschology

 

[Silas Loom]

Juncker sounds quite optimistic. Less so than May. Both refusing to take questions, though.

 

[bimble]

Is there not an official logo for Brexit yet?

 

[agricola]

I know its Denis MacShane, but if he is right that this is the text then we are staying in the Single Market:

 

[Pickman's model]

You'd have thought so. But Arlene presumably has been briefed otherwise. She can't just be cavilling because she's such an ardent Brexiteer.

cavilling: making petty or unnecessary objections. why do you think her objections petty or unnecessary?

 

[Silas Loom]

I know its Denis MacShane, but if he is right that this is the text then we are staying in the Single Market:

But there's no agreement. So there's no text.