Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[sleaterkinney]

turns out there wasn't any red or blue paint available for May's "red, white and blue Brexit"

I think there was some yellow paint though.

 

[gosub]

The EU is talking seriously. The people who are talking frivolously are the ones who are pretending that immediate independence from the EEA, the ECJ and the EU customs union is in any way possible.

Possible yes, in any way desirable, no.

 

[hot air baboon]

shifting as a stage 1 into one of the half way houses EEA or EFTA ( can't remember which one was the most palatable ) & then going to WTO in a controlled way always seemed the most sensible option with the only real objection being the over-hanging threat that it could be used to be walked back into the EU again

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

So who is part of the decision making process at the WTO? Anyone you’ve told to fuck off recently?

No, but the day is still young, not even 9am in Washington...

 

[Silas Loom]

shifting as a stage 1 into one of the half way houses EEA or EFTA ( can't remember which one was the most palatable ) & then going to WTO in a controlled way always seemed the most sensible option with the only real objection being the over-hanging threat that it could be used to be walked back into the EU again

It's not really a choice between two options. Being in EFTA means you are a member of the EEA. There are possibly other ways of staying within the EEA, although there probably isn't time to negotiate them.

 

[gosub]

shifting as a stage 1 into one of the half way houses EEA or EFTA ( can't remember which one was the most palatable ) & then going to WTO in a controlled way always seemed the most sensible option with the only real objection being the over-hanging threat that it could be used to be walked back into the EU again

EFTA was simpler to do as more off the peg, EEA only,was more bespoke

 

[flypanam]

Yeah, fuck 'em all.

Unless the EU want to start talking seriously about moving forward, I would suggest that Eire prepares for waves of refugees flooding in from Kilburn...

And England prepares for all the English refugees forced out of west Cork, all demanding their sea side vistas.

 

[Silas Loom]

Let's just remind ourselves of the May administration's form for claiming that a deal has been agreed with the DUP, when it hasn't.

If they'll lie about it to Brenda, they won't mind telling porkies to the lobby.

And the precedent is that they end up paying through the nose as a result.

 

[kabbes]

I think I have the perfect solution.
Hand NI to the RoI. Reunite Ireland.
It's perfect in its irony. It'll piss off the very people in NI that voted for Brexit on nationist grounds and provide those on the republican side who voted against Brexit exactly what they wanted all along. Furthermore, it solves the whole Irish border problem at a stroke.

 

[gosub]

Let's just remind ourselves of the May administration's form for claiming that a deal has been agreed with the DUP, when it hasn't.

If they'll lie about it to Brenda, they won't mind telling porkies to the lobby.

And the precedent is that they end up paying through the nose as a result.

bye bye Mrs May more likely.

 

[Silas Loom]

I think I have the perfect solution.
Hand NI to the RoI. Reunite Ireland.
It's perfect in its irony. It'll piss off the very people in NI that voted for Brexit on nationist grounds and provide those on the republican side who voted against Brexit exactly what they wanted all along. Furthermore, it solves the whole Irish border problem at a stroke.

Why would anyone in the Republic want that? NI runs on subsidy, so it would be a hideous burden. And Irish parliamentary politics is complicated enough without having a DUP contingent involved.

 

[Silas Loom]

bye bye Mrs May more likely.

She does have an extraordinary knack for hanging on, though.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think I have the perfect solution.
Hand NI to the RoI. Reunite Ireland.
It's perfect in its irony. It'll piss off the very people in NI that voted for Brexit on nationist grounds and provide those on the republican side who voted against Brexit exactly what they wanted all along. Furthermore, it solves the whole Irish border problem at a stroke.

It's genius, we get to dump all the loyalist loons and spymaster on Dublin. If we cut away all the other shitty bits too we can whittle Brexit down to Farage standing in a field. On his own. Next to a crashed plane.

 

[kabbes]

Why would anyone in the Republic want that? NI runs on subsidy, so it would be a hideous burden. And Irish parliamentary politics is complicated enough without having a DUP contingent involved.

Tough shit, sometimes you get a Christmas present you never wanted.

You telling me that if Britain offered to return the north to Irish control that Irish politicians would be able to look their public in the eye and say "no thank you"? At the very least, if that happened, it would utterly change the face of everything involving Ireland, Britain and the relationship thereof.

 

[DotCommunist]

Why would anyone in the Republic want that?

I know right, nobody ever votes shinner either do they, thats why its not the third largest party there

 

[littlebabyjesus]

She does have an extraordinary knack for hanging on, though.

She's defied my expectations by lasting this long. Clearly nobody else wants to do it.

 

[Silas Loom]

Tough shit, sometimes you get a Christmas present you never wanted.

You telling me that if Britain offered to return the north to Irish control that Irish politicians would be able to look their public in the eye and say "no thank you"? At the very least, if that happened, it would utterly change the face of everything involving Ireland, Britain and the relationship thereof.

It would be a really complicated conversation. And while the conversation took place, unionist paramilitary groups in NI would be carrying out atrocities. It wouldn't help matters much.

Anyway, it's a mad fantasy. This is the Conservative and Unionist party we're talking about. If we want sensible answers to the conundra, there are easier options on the table - EFTA, for a start.

 

[Silas Loom]

I know right, nobody ever votes shinner either do they, thats why its not the third largest party there

I meant the sensible people who would be tasked with making it all happen.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Tough shit, sometimes you get a Christmas present you never wanted.

You telling me that if Britain offered to return the north to Irish control that Irish politicians would be able to look their public in the eye and say "no thank you"? At the very least, if that happened, it would utterly change the face of everything involving Ireland, Britain and the relationship thereof.

They can't turn it down, but then they're fighting against being given €13bn from Apple, so who knows?

 

[Silas Loom]

She's defied my expectations by lasting this long. Clearly nobody else wants to do it.

No-one wants any of the people mad enough to want to do it, is how I think it works.

 

[flypanam]

It would be a really complicated conversation. And while the conversation took place, unionist paramilitary groups in NI would be carrying out atrocities. It wouldn't help matters much.

Seriously if they do it will be as shit as the AWB effort was in S. Africa.

 

[DotCommunist]

Seriously if they do it will be as shit as the AWB effort was in S. Africa.

yesterdays men and all that

 

[Silas Loom]

Seriously if they do it will be as shit as the AWB effort was in S. Africa.

Even if it's only a couple of hundred proper nutters, there would be enough ranting about betrayal in NI, in English right wing circles, and of course with Scottish sectarians, for the whole thing to be pretty ugly.

I like Kabbes, but he's beginning to remind me of Michael Gove in his fondness for dramatic, dreadful solutions, and his mistrust of experts.

 

[Kaka Tim]

and right on cue - the DUP are pouring cold water over whatever london and dublin have supposedly agreed.

DUP expresses doubts about UK-EU post-Brexit Irish border deal - Politics live

 

[kabbes]

I like Kabbes, but he's beginning to remind me of Michael Gove in his fondness for dramatic, dreadful solutions, and his mistrust of experts.

I wasn't being entirely serious about the Irish (final) solution.
It would definitely work, though. More importantly, it would be really funny.

Incidentally, I have a great respect for experts. What I also have, however, is a mistrust of people claiming expertise on things that do not lend themselves to the accumulation of expertise -- a phenomenon that is of well-trodden academic study at this point. My old neighbour spent years learning in great depth everything there is to know about homeopathy. Is she an expert? Or just a quack that thinks she is an expert?

 

[gosub]

and right on cue - the DUP are pouring cold water over whatever london and dublin have supposedly agreed.

DUP expresses doubts about UK-EU post-Brexit Irish border deal - Politics live

Reads to me like UK should do EFTA and revisit the issue in a few years. Happy with that. I think SNP could live with that. Most remainers I think could live with that... Would just be immigration lead leavers that couldn't.

 

[Silas Loom]

Incidentally, I have a great respect for experts. What I have is a mistrust of people claiming expertise on things that do not lend themselves to the accumulation of expertise -- something that is of well-trodden academic study at this point. My old neighbour spent years learning in great depth everything there is to know about homeopathy. Is she an expert? Or just a quack that thinks she is an expert?

Fair enough, the only actual point of contention is whether economists are like (say) structural engineers or whether they are like homeopaths.

Although your neighbour still had expertise. She was an authority on something useless and absurd, but she still had knowledge about a body of lore and doctrine which (presumably) is internally coherent. You can be an expert theologist, for instance.

 

[Silas Loom]

The Michael Gove comparison was going too far, and I withdraw.

 

[kabbes]

Fair enough, the only actual point of contention is whether economists are like (say) structural engineers or whether they are like homeopaths.

Indeed. Or something in between, where there is the potential for something to be understood, but the complexity and length of feedback loops are such that they currently defy the ability to gain expertise.

We have seismologists that understand plate tectonics incredibly well, but if one predicted where an earthquake is going to be next year, you'd tell him to get to fuck. (Warning: my understanding of seismology is very limited and this analogy may not actually work).

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I wasn't being entirely serious about the Irish (final) solution.
It would definitely work, though. More importantly, it would be really funny.

Incidentally, I have a great respect for experts. What I also have, however, is a mistrust of people claiming expertise on things that do not lend themselves to the accumulation of expertise -- a phenomenon that is of well-trodden academic study at this point. My old neighbour spent years learning in great depth everything there is to know about homeopathy. Is she an expert? Or just a quack that thinks she is an expert?

She's an expert in the quackery that is homeopathy.