Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[brogdale]

I love the smell of desperation in the morning.

Theresa May contacts union leaders for Brexit deal support from Labour

Reminded me of....



Gotta hope that's how Len answered the call!

 

[grit]

I don't know if you've noticed, but the means of production in this country haven't suffered a case of spontaneous combustion

True, part of it is moving out of the UK.

 

[Celyn]

Don't take the piss. He's a linguistics graduate, qualified secondary English teacher, a TEFL teacher and a professional writer of 25 years don't you know.

Fair enough. That's me tellt.

 

[killer b]

strong support for a referendum on it though.

View attachment 158453

sure, but how people say they would vote with the three current scenarios isn't comforting for the FBPE crowd.

Gvt's Brexit agreement (41%) vs Leave with No Deal (32%)
Gvt's Brexit agreement (40%) vs Remain in EU (40%)
Leave with No Deal (41%) V Remain in EU (46%)

 

[Teaboy]

sure, but how people say they would vote with the three current scenarios isn't comforting for the FBPE crowd.

Gvt's Brexit agreement (41%) vs Leave with No Deal (32%)
Gvt's Brexit agreement (40%) vs Remain in EU (40%)
Leave with No Deal (41%) V Remain in EU (46%)

Its interesting. The one thing that really stands out to me is that there is a clear majority against a no deal Brexit. My interpretation of this is that May's deal is what would probably keep the most people happy.

 

[killer b]

May's deal wouldn't keep anyone happy - it's a 'least worst' option for the vast majority of people who'd vote for it.

 

[Teaboy]

I wonder how many people have actually read the terms of May's deal? I'll be honest I've only skimmed it.

 

[treelover]

I’m a remainer. So why do I feel more and more sympathy for leave voters?

Joseph Harker
Anti-Brexit campaigners really do act like a ‘metropolitan elite’, with little or no interest in northern and working-class people

I’m a remainer. So why do I feel more and more sympathy for leave voters? | Joseph Harker

Certainly, few of them are likely to be persuaded by the leading voices in the people’s vote campaign – almost all wealthy and middle class, and most of them southerners. The same is true of almost all remainer commentators in the media. The notion of the “metropolitan elite” used to seem like a ridiculous putdown; yet, more and more, it seems to be becoming a truth. “The people have spoken. The people must be wrong,” seems to be their mantra.

Of course, this mattered little in the media world – dominated as it is by Oxbridge graduates, especially at its most senior levels. These are the people who have least to fear from austerity, and the most to lose from leaving Europe; nor do they have to worry about migrants moving in next door or changing their neighbourhoods, taking their jobs or undercutting their wages. To them, the concerns of poorer or working-class areas are irrational, merely evidence of their simple-mindedness. So the commentators demand Labour ditch all connection with its heartlands.

Hard to believe this is in the Guardian, and by Joseph Harker, the G's deputy opinion editor, especially the last part, can't see comments being opened though.[/QUOTE]

 

[Celyn]

I wonder how many people have actually read the terms of May's deal? I'll be honest I've only skimmed it.

Honestly, I have no idea what May's deal is. What is May's deal? Could somebody explain in a good and sensible and understandable way, please?

Yes, I know it is not Urban's job and that it is May's job, but she doesn't seem to be very good at it.

 

[Teaboy]

Honestly, I have no idea what May's deal is. What is May's deal? Could somebody explain in a good and sensible and understandable way, please?

Yes, I know it is not Urban's job and that it is May's job, but she doesn't seem to be very good at it.

My understanding is is more a road map than a deal in so far it lays out how the future arrangements will look but it doesn't actually go so far as to spell out the exact nature of them as that is work still to do.

 

[Poi E]

She kicks a can well.

 

[Winot]

My understanding is is more a road map than a deal in so far it lays out how the future arrangements will look but it doesn't actually go so far as to spell out the exact nature of them as that is work still to do.

My understanding is as follows but happy to be corrected as have only read commentary:

There’s two parts - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.

The WA is the divorce bit covering the repayments, citizens rights and the NI border (including the backstop). It’s legally binding.

The PD isn’t legally binding but sets out intentions for the future trade relationship. It’s short and a bit hand-wavey apparently (haven’t read it).

The main objections to the WA are that

- it ties the UK into a customs union with the EU which means the UK can’t make it’s own trade deals

- it ties NI closer to the EU than GB which effectively splits the UK

- it doesnt deal with services only goods

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

My understanding is is more a road map than a deal in so far it lays out how the future arrangements will look but it doesn't actually go so far as to spell out the exact nature of them as that is work still to do.

Aaargh, no. It's the actual holding position that comes into force after the A50 deadline is passed - it's the transition agreement - intendedf to last until the future relationship can be negotiated. The road map for the future relationship is the totally woolly Political Declaration. The backstop is unusual in that it is part of the transition agreement, but it would only come into force if there is no agreed future relationship.

Edit: Also what Winot said. If someone more motivated than me could add in the various deadline date possibilities that'd be grand.

 

[Celyn]

She kicks a can well.

I don't even understand this simplified (for which many thanks) version.

She kicks a can.

It might be a new old folky song. sort of ""Weel May the keel row".

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't even understand this simplified (for which many thanks) version.

She kicks a can.

It might be a new old folky song. sort of ""Weel May the keel row".

Like 'kicking it into the long grass', only for it to come back to haunt you.

 

[Celyn]

I now think that the only problem is that the wrong people are sorting out this thing.

Obviously the only person to make sense of it is Lewis Carroll.

Or Flann O'Brien. He would be good at it. O Yes!

 

[Celyn]

Like 'kicking it into the long grass', only for it to come back to haunt you.

Has this ever really happened to anyone, though?

I think the only thing I might ever have kicked into the long grass might be a bit of dog shit that was in my way. Aha, a new form of non-violent protest beckons!

 

[cupid_stunt]

Has this ever really happened to anyone, though?

I think the only thing I might ever have kicked into the long grass might be a bit of dog shit that was in my way. Aha, a new form of non-violent protest beckons!

It's just a saying -
What does 'Kick something into the long grass' mean? If an issue or problem is kicked into the long grass, it is pushed aside and hidden in the hope that it will be forgotten or ignored.

 

[Teaboy]

Has this ever really happened to anyone, though?

I think the only thing I might ever have kicked into the long grass might be a bit of dog shit that was in my way. Aha, a new form of non-violent protest beckons!

Its an american phrase. Basically a person walking along a street kicking a can as they go. Not fixing a problem but just delaying dealing with it is like constantly kicking a can down a road.

 

[Teaboy]

My understanding is as follows but happy to be corrected as have only read commentary:

There’s two parts - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.

The WA is the divorce bit covering the repayments, citizens rights and the NI border (including the backstop). It’s legally binding.

The PD isn’t legally binding but sets out intentions for the future trade relationship. It’s short and a bit hand-wavey apparently (haven’t read it).

The main objections to the WA are that

- it ties the UK into a customs union with the EU which means the UK can’t make it’s own trade deals

- it ties NI closer to the EU than GB which effectively splits the UK

- it doesnt deal with services only goods

Aaargh, no. It's the actual holding position that comes into force after the A50 deadline is passed - it's the transition agreement - intendedf to last until the future relationship can be negotiated. The road map for the future relationship is the totally woolly Political Declaration. The backstop is unusual in that it is part of the transition agreement, but it would only come into force if there is no agreed future relationship.

Edit: Also what Winot said. If someone more motivated than me could add in the various deadline date possibilities that'd be grand.

Thanks.

This is why I should skim read less.

 

[kebabking]

Its an american phrase. Basically a person walking along a street kicking a can as they go. Not fixing a problem but just delaying dealing with it is like constantly kicking a can down a road.

In this case it's a slighty more nuanced - deliberately kicking the can down the road has had, for May, two positive consequences: firstly it's pushed big internal party disagreements over brexit policy much further along the timetable than was thought likely, and secondly it has probably made getting whatever agreement through parliament easier - both remainy and brexity MP's are far more likely to bin the agreement when there's 6 months left to do a new one, however if there's two weeks left and the choices are her agreement, no deal crash put brexit or opening the door to a US-style culture war, she'll find it easier to force otherwise reluctant MP's to sign up.

She may be awkward, but she's not stupid.

 

[Poi E]

yes yes, my nuanced americanism

eta: fuck, I've been saying "elevator", too.

 

[Pickman's model]

In this case it's a slighty more nuanced - deliberately kicking the can down the road has had, for May, two positive consequences: firstly it's pushed big internal party disagreements over brexit policy much further along the timetable than was thought likely, and secondly it has probably made getting whatever agreement through parliament easier - both remainy and brexity MP's are far more likely to bin the agreement when there's 6 months left to do a new one, however if there's two weeks left and the choices are her agreement, no deal crash put brexit or opening the door to a US-style culture war, she'll find it easier to force otherwise reluctant MP's to sign up.

She may be awkward, but she's not stupid.

well she may be stupid but she is cunning

 

[CRI]

 

[SpineyNorman]

That's really crap

 

[Cloo]

Civil service friend from a department with relatively little involvement in Brexit has just been telling us that in the event of No Deal she, and other civil servants like her, have been told they may be drafted in to do passport stamping at border points because there won't be enough people to handle it at short notice.

 

[teuchter]

Reading this

Brexit: Circling the Drain | naked capitalism

...in the comments there is some discussion about NI that I am trying to get my head round. They seem to be saying that the arrangement for NI that would exist post withdrawal agreement sort of gives UK access to single market without having to be in it. I don't know if that's accurate. I guess it would be a situation that could be superseded by the next stage of negotiations though?

there will be, under the Withdrawal Agreement, a new Single Market member, designated as “UK (NI)”. This Member State (or maybe better put “Member State-lette”) will be governed by Single Market rules, under the jurisprudence of the CJEU. Border checks will be imposed to ensure total adherence to agriculture and phytosanitary standards in incoming food and animal products. Manufactured goods placed on the Single Market (to use the EU parlance) will be subject to much less onerous checking at the “border” between UK (NI) and the rest of the UK (checking can be conducted at point of manufacture in the mainland in a lot of cases, probably 99.9% or even in totality) but must still meet Single Market standards to be placed on the Single Market. The UK will have to accept complete alignment with EU tariffs.

It is a very elegant solution. It benefits all parties. It completely obviates the need for a hard border. It protects agricultural produce standards in the Republic, which is an essential requirement as agribusiness is pivotal to the South and one which the UK could not by any fair or diplomatic norms ever threaten by not having a waterproof solution for. It is a compromise for the UK (and NI) but it is just as much a compromise for the EU, too.

that is the big advantage to the U.K. of the Withdrawal Agreement. It retains Single Market access via NI. It’s not completely clear if U.K. Country of Origin manufactured goods can be placed on the Single Market unless they physically route through the province or, and this seems more likely, if it will suffice to have the goods marketed by a legal entity which is merely registered in NI iteself but the goods still shipable from their base in the U.K. mainland. If it is indeed the latter, then the Withdrawal Agreement offers, for manufactured goods, the kind of crazy-thinking nirvana that the Ultras actually envisioned in the first place — Single Market access outside of the EU with no payments to the EU27 and no CJEU jurisdiction for the U.K. overall.

The nonsense about how it somehow is a weakening of the U.K. union is ridiculous. NI really will have the best of both worlds. Yes, the EU will have a finger in the province’s pie. But NI has always been a sovereignty compromise. Heck, the entire Island of Ireland has always been a sovereignty lash-up. The Withdrawal Agreement actually rationalises and adds a layer of logicality to it all.

 

[Crispy]

Thats the assumption the NI property developers I work for are making. "We'll be the Hong Kong of the UK!" They think they're going to make out like bandits.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Is Brexit actually going to happen? At present, neither answer to the OP's question seems plausible. How does that happen?

 

[Supine]

Reading this

Brexit: Circling the Drain | naked capitalism

...in the comments there is some discussion about NI that I am trying to get my head round. They seem to be saying that the arrangement for NI that would exist post withdrawal agreement sort of gives UK access to single market without having to be in it. I don't know if that's accurate. I guess it would be a situation that could be superseded by the next stage of negotiations though?

While logical it's just what the DUP don't want.