The Fornicator
Active Member
That's .. something. I don't think anyone else has a clue what will happen tomorrow.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Same as always, most likely. Raising money for their election campaigns next year.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
Burn 'em!
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
In the Christian tradition for ever.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
What do we burn apart from unforgivable people?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Witches!
Bridges?
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
And what do we do with bridges apart from burn them?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh, you're a well-known fan of the hot dog
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Toast
Cakes
Tigers
Midnight oil
Candles at both ends
Mobile phones, at least in America
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
flags 
Books 
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
im speculating on a speculative thread.
ska invita
back on the other side
I didnt realises that Norway means accepting EU rules on goods, services, people and capital, as well as competition and state aid, I thought it was just the first four. That really is Brexit In Name Only.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
As apparently is this "backstop" loophole of indefinite duration
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tommers
It was... Rebekah Vardy's account
Ah yes, but there's a + in our one.
I think there's a number of barriers to this chain of events which - IMO - make it an improbable one.
May's deal will almost certainly lose on first going to parliament: however, I don't think she'll resign - losing at this point is pretty much built into her plans.
There will probably be a confidence vote in the house - MPs will most likely vote down party lines, so whether it passes or not is down to the DUP: and while they've made noises about voting against the government in a confidence vote, I think the very tight majorities of a few key DUP MPs suggests they wouldn't be very keen on an early election. So it probably won't pass.
If it does, then there's 14 days for a new government to be formed before an election can be called - the Tories will likely move fast to replace May with a leader who can command the support of the DUP. There are other possible things that could happen in these 14 days too - some sort of Labour minority government isn't totally out of the question, but it's hard to imagine how they'll persuade enough Tory or DUP MPs to vote for them or sit on their hands - maybe if at this point they promised a second referendum some of the tory remain ultras might commit hari-kiri. I think the most likely thing is a new Tory leader and a new - still unstable - Tory government though.
If there is a general election, Labour will not go into it promising a second referendum, but instead the softest possible brexit. They are unlikely to win a majority, but are likely to be able to form a minority or coalition government (most likely minority w/ confidence & supply) so this is the point at which a second referendum really becomes possible: it's the price of the support of the minor parties.
So then if there's a second referendum... I can't see on current polling any likelihood of a clear win for remain, and I can't see the kind of transformative campaign coming from the remain camp to make that happen.
Am I missing anything?
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gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Last night I was willing May's cunning plan to finally force BlowJob to finally admit his whole part in the Brexit farrago had been bullshit ...
At the end of the day, to my naive eyes there seems to be a lot of brinksmanship going on ...
At the end of the day, to my naive eyes there seems to be a lot of brinksmanship going on ...
The Fornicator
Active Member
This is about the 31st month of brinkmanship in relation to Brexit.
Who's this? If you're going to give politicians nicknames, at least make it so people can tell who you're talking about.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
killer b that's a plausible scenario (one of many). I think one interesting bit will be what "the Tories will likely move fast to replace May with a leader who can command the support of the DUP" means in practice vis-a-vis Brexit. It could be insistence on removing the backstop (which results in no deal imo) but it actually could mean the UK as a whole staying permanently in a form of customs union (the Labour model). After all the DUP has basically said that they are agnostic about everything apart from NI having exactly the same deal as GB.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I think your analysis is sound. It’s more or less what I think, as far as can be ascertained. But this last bit is worth reiterating. The assumption from some daft Remainers that Remain would necessarily win a second referendum is baffling. How? Based on what? ‘Because that’s what they’d prefer’ seems to be the strength of it. Where is this surge going to come from, though? The movements from Leave to Remain in all the polling that I’ve seen have been more or less matched by roughly equal movements in the other direction. (Disregarding don’t knows and Didn’t Votes). But psephology aside, what is going to change the minds of Leave voters? Calling them “unforgivable people”. I doubt it. That kind of thing just hardens attitudes and confirms group boundaries. And if you’re in a minority, the last thing you want to do is make it feel harder for people to cross that boundary. And yet that’s all Remain has got - a repeat of the campaign that lost them the last vote plus the added patronising message of: “you were deluded: you’ll come to your senses”. I can see that backfiring all over again.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
This would presumably be used to try and thwart any move towards nationalisation of railways, utilities or anything else. Utilities especially, what with EDF and Eon being big names in fleecing the British public.
Interesting that none of the bank bailouts fell foul of state aid rules though eh?
The Fornicator
Active Member
If we were to get to the point, the EU would likely adopt a more flexible negotiating position with Labour. If Labour so wanted.
Any reopening of negotiations with a new UK gov would also be in the light of a reframed EU, one riven by doubt (by migration), and considering its future without Merkel.
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