Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Winot]

How so? Go on, I'll bite

OK so caveat that I haven’t read the opinion only the commentary.

First, from what I’ve read it seems pretty likely that the ECJ will follow today’s AG Opinion. Let's assume they do.

The question the court was asked was a narrow one - having triggered Art. 50, can a state unilaterally reverse that or does it need permission from the other EU member states?

The opinion says that the state doesn’t need permission - although it needs to demonstrate (not sure how) that it has really changed its mind and isn’t just playing negotiating games.

The relevant court (ECJ) will not enforce the idea of any legal obligation to leave.

The ECJ doesn't do enforcement off its own bat afaik. It rules on cases brought before it. The default position is that the UK is leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. It *is* legally obliged to leave, because it triggered Art. 50. What the opinion says is that the UK can in principle reverse that decision.

The relevant court does not want us to leave.

This is completely wrong. It doesn’t express any opinion either way as to whether the UK should stay or leave. That isn't what it was asked to look at (and it would be bizarre if it had been).

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Is there any strong reason not to believe that we're heading for:

* Govt loses vote on May's deal
* May resigns and/or vote of no confidence
* Another general election
* Labour come around to the idea of a second referendum and win (although probably not a majority)
* Second referendum is a clear Remain win, Labour govt cancel Article 50 and we all go back to how things were in 2016

?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Aye. And what do you think the ECJ verdict will be?

The E.U. wants us to stay, if the UK chooses to stay the ECJ is hardly likely to say, no, the UK must leave and at this late hour on terms that fuck both the E.U. and the UK and could destroy this court.

Courts are political instruments, they were set up as such and nothing has changed, how could they?

 

[mauvais]

Is there any strong reason not to believe that we're heading for:

* Govt loses vote on May's deal
* May resigns and/or vote of no confidence
* Another general election
* Labour come around to the idea of a second referendum and win (although probably not a majority)
* Second referendum is a clear Remain win, Labour govt cancel Article 50 and we all go back to how things were in 2016

?

The Fixed Term Parliament Act may stand in the way of a GE.

The three-option, transferable vote model combined with current polling may stands in the way of straightforward Remain victory in any second ref.

 

[DexterTCN]

Tell me where I'm wrong. You can help Winot out!

Well Winot is currently owning you so I doubt he needs help.

Do you even know who pushed for this judgement?

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Kaka Tim]

technically "no deal" can still happen.
politically it absolutely will not. Even if the government wanted to take the uk off a cliff edge with no deal on march 29th (which it definitely doesn't) - parliament would force them to revoke A50 before it got to that stage - and would every single body with any power and influence in the entire country bar a few lunatic brexiteers like Rees Mogg - and most of them are just grandstanding.

 

[belboid]

The Fixed Term Parliament Act may stand in the way of a GE.

It doesn't, really. If May loses the no confidence vote, and no one else can command a majority (do you think there is anyone who could?), the government falls.

 

[mauvais]

It doesn't, really. If May loses the no confidence vote, and no one else can command a majority (do you think there is anyone who could?), the government falls.

I haven't thought about this too hard so forgive any gross stupidity but ultimately the Tories would have to vote themselves out of office, or at least gamble on the same. It's not remotely in their interests to go to the polls without a leader in place, and if they have a leader that they can temporarily work with, why go to the polls at all instead of attempting to proceed (probably to no avail) with some version of Brexit?

 

[belboid]

I haven't thought about this too hard so forgive any gross stupidity but ultimately the Tories would have to vote themselves out of office, or at least gamble on the same. It's not remotely in their interests to go to the polls without a leader in place, and if they have a leader that they can temporarily work with, why go to the polls at all instead of attempting to proceed (probably to no avail) with some version of Brexit?

Who would that be? And, dont forget, that several are standing down, or will do if the boundary changes go through (which they wont if there is an early election). Remember what Heseltine said - for some this (the right Brexit deal) is more important than a brief Corbyn government.

 

[mauvais]

Remember what Heseltine said - for some this (the right Brexit deal) is more important than a brief Corbyn government.

Really? Can you think of a modern Tory that genuinely rather than ostensibly put a long-term national strategy (I'm not going to say 'good') before their own more immediate self-interest*? Which feeds into:

Who would that be?

I don't know, but again I wonder if self-interest will see them hold their noses for someone for a while. This is kind of how we got May in the first place.

I don't think and I'm not claiming that it's a solid barrier to a GE. I merely suspect it's not as simple as you think.

*a perhaps more interesting argument is that economic self-interest of the 'right Brexit' eclipses careerist self-interest

 

[chilango]

Tories are almost by definition selfish fuckers. Its not too much of a stretch to believe that a Tory MP or two, sitting in what they believe to be a safe seat and enjoying their role as a backbencher to be just as happy to do this in opposition as not. Hell, there'll be a fair few more interested in settling internal scores.

Others no doubt believe a Corbyn Government would fuck over the Labour Party in the longer term, and I suspect relish the chance of an old fashioned session of red badhing.

Point being, it's perfectly conceivable for enough (and it won't take many) Tories to not give s fuck about propping a May Government up to bring it down.

 

[Winot]

Although the FTP Act makes it possible for May to carry on I think in practice they’d have to call an election if the Government couldn’t get any of its business through.

 

[Wookey]

View attachment 154445

Sublime. And so quick.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I already told you. If you can't read and comprehend there isn't much we can do for you.

It speaks volumes about you that can be complimentary about Bercow.

 

[SpackleFrog]

OK so caveat that I haven’t read the opinion only the commentary.

First, from what I’ve read it seems pretty likely that the ECJ will follow today’s AG Opinion. Let's assume they do.

The question the court was asked was a narrow one - having triggered Art. 50, can a state unilaterally reverse that or does it need permission from the other EU member states?

The opinion says that the state doesn’t need permission - although it needs to demonstrate (not sure how) that it has really changed its mind and isn’t just playing negotiating games.



The ECJ doesn't do enforcement off its own bat afaik. It rules on cases brought before it. The default position is that the UK is leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. It *is* legally obliged to leave, because it triggered Art. 50. What the opinion says is that the UK can in principle reverse that decision.



This is completely wrong. It doesn’t express any opinion either way as to whether the UK should stay or leave. That isn't what it was asked to look at (and it would be bizarre if it had been).

If someone took a case to the court they would rule the UK could stay. Of course if you take the view that bourgeois courts are 'neutral' there's no helping you.

Well Winot is currently owning you so I doubt he needs help.

Do you even know who pushed for this judgement?

 

[SpackleFrog]

The deal, for want of a better term, that is on the table.

Even for us in Ireland, who economically can possibly hurt as bad as the UK in Brexit are ok with it. We generally alternate between rolling our eyes and sniggering to licking our lips at the prospect of a united Ireland, we are even ok with picking up the bill for the basket case of an economy in the north.

We, the same as many others, are "enjoying the season finale of the UK".

I'm afraid the powers that be don't care what you or I think.

 

[Winot]

If someone took a case to the court they would rule the UK could stay. Of course if you take the view that bourgeois courts are 'neutral' there's no helping you.

Where did I say the ECJ was neutral? Of course courts are political animals.

 

[grit]

I'm afraid the powers that be don't care what you or I think.

Very true, thankfully this doesn't preclude our interests aligning on occasion

 

[Cloo]

For the first time I am beginning to believe it is possible that the wheels will come off this fucking thing. I don't think it'll be fun if/when they do in the short term, but would be much better in the long run.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Where did I say the ECJ was neutral? Of course courts are political animals.

Then we agree, the ECJ will rule the UK can stay, without asking permission of EU27

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Is brexit over now then? The homeless will finally disapppear from our streets, austerity & democracy erased from the English Oxford, & we’re all better off?

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Need to bus some hi vis French over

 

[The Fornicator]

BBC now spinning today as 'May deal looking stronger,' The Guardian leads with 'May staggers on'. It's like a shouting match in Waitrose.

Elsewhere, that legal Advice is going to be fun.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Aunty Beeb will keep us all in line!

 

[sleaterkinney]

From the DfT, good news for the commies on here:

Chris Grayling, transport secretary, has warned the cabinet that trade on the key Dover-Calais route could be cut by up to 87 per cent in the event of a disorderly exit, as checks and customs controls are introduced in France.

The pro-Brexit Mr Grayling has written to colleagues seeking approval for the chartering of ships, or space on ships, to operate on alternative routes, bypassing likely blockages in the Strait of Dover.

Perishable goods like salads and vegetables won’t make it on to ‘DfT Seaways’,” said one official. “Some foods will run out in the supermarkets — it will be a bit like the USSR.” The UK imports 30 per cent of its food from the EU.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

[Wookey]

Space ships??!



This has gone too far.

 

[twentythreedom]

"It will be a bit like the USSR"

 

[brogdale]

Need to bus some hi vis French over

Loads of gilets jaunes on the M20 & M26 today...unfortunately just fitting the Brexstack lorry gates.

 

[Kaka Tim]

i have a feeling this all may unfold as follows -

mays deal cant get through.
no alternative deal can get through.
labour cant force general election.
move for 2nd referendum - but that cant get through cos nobody can agree what questions should be.
uk heads towards no deal.
gathering panic, stock market and pound fall, panic buying, increasingly loud cries of distress everywhere from the nhs to the cbi the tuc - all this builds to irresistible pressure on parliament to do the only thing left - pass emergency legislation to rescind a50. Brexit cancelled. may resigns (if she hasn't already)

torys get most of blame for fucking it up/sabotaging it leaving parliament no choice. having started into the abyss of no deal steam goes out of brexiteer sails. much huffing and puffing from ukip types that amounts to very little. tory party meltdown. government collapse. general election.