Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wookey]

You can't tell the difference between #factz and your own delirious ravings.




Here's a good example. You think that's a fact, other people try to explain that it's not going to happen, that you've misunderstood, and you insult them.

Oh behave. We're legally obliged to leave so we are unless something changes that. The fact as it stands now is that we leave on the 29th.

Your argument seems rather weak and unfocused to me, contesting the definition of 'fact' isn't useful.

 

[Wilf]

Saying it's permanent and irreversible isn't subjective at all, it's a statement of fact! As is the projected damage ANY form of Brexit will bring..

I was referring to this bit - "not to mention hugely damaging in every one of its iterations" - in terms of it being subjective.

The question in the ref was fatally flawed, it asked if people wanted to leave, then left the expression of that vote entirely up to the Tory party.

The question wasn't flawed - maybe not building in a referendum on the deal was flawed, but not the original question, which couldn't have been clearer.

We are leaving on March 29. Why are so many Leavers unhappy at that fact?

Because this deal doesn't represent their vote...and no deal was ever going to do that because of the inherent incompatibility between the vote and the GFA

The shift back to remain has been fairly modest , tbh. Also, the in principle decision to leave isn't constitutionally at odds with the GFA. Or, to put it another way, all issues are to be worked through and resolved. Yes, the May government have been hopeless doing that, but that doesn't allow you to take the post hoc rationalisation route that there is valid reason to replay the original vote.

 

[andysays]

No they're not, you just need to concentrate more. I''m tired of simplifying for the hard of thinking. Work a bit.

I didn't say I didn't understand them, just that they're gibberish.

Your efforts this afternoon aren't any better either.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Just thinking - The EFTA club is not one that would be massively happy about an incompetent laughing stock like the U.K. amongst its ranks.

What a larf

 

[SpackleFrog]

Oh behave. We're legally obliged to leave so we are unless something changes that. The fact as it stands now is that we leave on the 29th.

No we're not. As the ECJ said today (to no one's surprise) we don't have to leave if 'we' (ie the govt) don't want to.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpackleFrog]

No no deal now.

That's interesting actually - I think there's absolutely no chance of a no deal Brexit, just to be clear.

BUT Parliament or the Govt would actually have to revoke A50 or ask for an extension to prevent No Deal. I don't think the Grieve amendment means No Deal simply can't happen.

Might have got that wrong though!

 

[not-bono-ever]

hate to add levity, but this whole thing is tickling me now the cannibalism of the smug political classes across the board is cheering me up.

 

[Supine]

No we're not. As the ECJ said today (to no one's surprise) we don't have to leave if 'we' (ie the govt) don't want to.

I think you're having trouble understanding the whole situation. The default position is that we leave with no deal at the end of March. That's what article 50 specifies and is legally factual.

A bloke at the ECJ has offered the opinion that it can be reversed / withdrawn if that's what the UK decides. The ECJ haven't formally said the same but it's not really relevant. It's a decision about changing our mind, not about whether we currently leave with no deal automatically in four months time...

 

[SpackleFrog]

hate to add levity, but this whole thing is tickling me now the cannibalism of the smug political classes across the board is cheering me up.

Hey, it's the best bit about this whole tortuous-but-wonderful process!

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think you're having trouble understanding the whole situation. The default position is that we leave with no deal at the end of March. That's what article 50 specifies and is legally factual.

A bloke at the ECJ has offered the opinion that it can be reversed / withdrawn if that's what the UK decides. The ECJ haven't formally said the same but it's not really relevant. It's a decision about changing our mind, not about whether we currently leave with no deal automatically in four months time...

I think you're having trouble understanding the situation.

Oh behave. We're legally obliged to leave so we are unless something changes that. The fact as it stands now is that we leave on the 29th.

Yer man thinks that we are legally obliged to leave. The relevant court (ECJ) will not enforce the idea of any legal obligation to leave. The relevant court does not want us to leave.

 

[Winot]

Yer man thinks that we are legally obliged to leave. The relevant court (ECJ) will not enforce the idea of any legal obligation to leave. The relevant court does not want us to leave.

Not the case.

 

[Supine]

Bercow is on form in tonight's debate. Must be like herding cats keeping those ruffians in check.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Not the case.

How so? Go on, I'll bite

 

[DexterTCN]

I think you're having trouble understanding the situation.



Yer man thinks that we are legally obliged to leave. The relevant court (ECJ) will not enforce the idea of any legal obligation to leave. The relevant court does not want us to leave.

Where on earth do you get this nonsense from?

 

[Winot]

How so? Go on, I'll bite

Just serving dinner - back in a bit.

 

[mx wcfc]

No we're not. As the ECJ said today (to no one's surprise) we don't have to leave if 'we' (ie the govt) don't want to.

My reading of this ruling is that it is a non-binding opinion by one EU law official. The ECJ hasn't delivered it's final decision yet.

Law officer says UK can cancel Brexit

 

[SpackleFrog]

Where on earth do you get this nonsense from?

Tell me where I'm wrong. You can help Winot out!

 

[SpackleFrog]

My reading of this ruling is that it is a non-binding opinion by one EU law official. The ECJ hasn't delivered it's final decision yet.

Law officer says UK can cancel Brexit

Aye. And what do you think the ECJ verdict will be?

 

[Supine]

Tell me where I'm wrong. You can help Winot out!

I already told you. If you can't read and comprehend there isn't much we can do for you.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Where on earth do you get this nonsense from?

How is it nonsense? I'll be very surprised if the final judgement doesn't say exactly what this bloke said today, and like Spacklefrog, I've been entirely expecting it. 'no deal' brexit has never been a real possibility. All the final words on this that and the other are nothing of the kind. Legal judgements are made in the political interests of those the courts serve, and in this case, legal judgements will continue to be made as and when necessary to stop 'no deal'.

Where this all leaves May is for me the interesting question. It may have done her a big favour by giving her an out when this deal is voted down, which may allow her not to resign immediately.

 

[grit]

Tell me where I'm wrong. You can help Winot out!

Europe has no problem with the UK leaving.

 

[mx wcfc]

Aye. And what do you think the ECJ verdict will be?

I have no idea. If I was the EU, I'd tell us to piss off, frankly.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Europe has no problem with the UK leaving.

Really? How do you judge that? Who in Europe specifically?

 

[agricola]

How is it nonsense? I'll be very surprised if the final judgement doesn't say exactly what this bloke said today, and like Spacklefrog, I've been entirely expecting it. 'no deal' brexit has never been a real possibility. All the final words on this that and the other are nothing of the kind. Legal judgements are made in the political interests of those the courts serve, and in this case, legal judgements will continue to be made as and when necessary to stop 'no deal'.

Where this all leaves May is for me the interesting question. It may have done her a big favour by giving her an out when this deal is voted down, which may allow her not to resign immediately.

I agree with you that the ECJ will agree with this bloke and that they have form for making decisions with political interests in mind, but this decision (if it is what they come up with) is not one of those. It is, on a reading of the text, the only decision they could ever come to without being completely absurd.

 

[grit]

Really? How do you judge that? Who in Europe specifically?

The deal, for want of a better term, that is on the table.

Even for us in Ireland, who economically can possibly hurt as bad as the UK in Brexit are ok with it. We generally alternate between rolling our eyes and sniggering to licking our lips at the prospect of a united Ireland, we are even ok with picking up the bill for the basket case of an economy in the north.

We, the same as many others, are "enjoying the season finale of the UK".

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The deal, for want of a better term, that is on the table.

Even for us in Ireland, who economically can possibly hurt as bad as the UK in Brexit are ok with it. We generally alternate between rolling our eyes and sniggering to licking our lips at the prospect of a united Ireland, we are even ok with picking up the bill for the basket case of an economy in the north.

We, the same as many others, are "enjoying the season finale of the UK".

Not my experience at all when I've travelled to Germany and Poland recently. People I've talked to have been mystified by the whole thing. They see it as an act of self-harm, and to the Poles at least, an act that they feel hurts them. As for the political classes, I don't see any reason at all for them not to be both pissed off and concerned by brexit. There's no upside for the rest of the EU that I can see.

 

[grit]

Not my experience at all when I've travelled to Germany and Poland recently. People I've talked to have been mystified by the whole thing. They see it as an act of self-harm. As for the political classes, I don't see any reason at all for them not to be both pissed off and concerned by brexit. There's no upside for the rest of the EU that I can see.

Are you proposing that anecdote supports the assertion that Europe doesn't want the UK to leave?

You said it yourself, self harm

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Are you proposing that anecdote supports the assertion that Europe doesn't want the UK to leave?

I'm matching your anecdote. I was really mostly talking about the political classes, but you decided to make an 'us' kind of national feel point, which is rubbish really - all depends on who your circle is.

 

[grit]

I'm matching your anecdote. I was really mostly talking about the political classes, but you decided to make an 'us' kind of national feel point, which is rubbish really - all depends on who your circle is.

No doubt it's an inconvenience that Europe doesn't want. The only people, rightly so, who are in a panic is the UK.

It's also not inconceivable that many states could actually benefit from brexit. I have multinationals hounding myself and colleagues with large contracts to build the software systems in Dublin to prepare them for the 29th. Jobs are moving at a noticeable rate