Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[DotCommunist]

e voters feeling of being marginalised

all about the feelings

Regional economic disparities grounded in successive rounds of uneven development and biased official policy are not peculiar to Britain. As David Harvey has written, ‘capitalism is uneven geographical development’—and, if anything, becoming more so. The era of neoliberal globalization multiplied opportunities for ‘the uneven insertion of different territories and social formations into the capitalist world market’. [55] As regulatory powers are stripped away, wealth is becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of the opulent few. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, mouthpiece for free-market economies, notes that ‘while gaps in GDP per capita across OECD countries have narrowed over the last two decades, within their own borders countries are witnessing increasing income gaps among regions, cities and people.’ Such is the common pattern. Davos is looking nervously over its shoulder as the popular backlash intensifies. [56]

Yet Britain is indeed a special case of uneven development within the Europe on which its voters were invited to express their verdict in 2016. The astonishing fact is that the UK is more lopsided economically than Italy, despite its notoriously incomplete Risorgimento; than Spain, with its historic polarity of Catalan–Basque industry and Andalusian latifundia; than Germany, where a quarter of a century after reunification GDP per head in the East was still only two-thirds of that in the West; than France, enshadowed by a metropolis great enough to warrant comparison with its cross-Channel neighbour. At sub-regional level, output per head is eight times higher in inner west London than in west Wales and the Valleys, the largest difference to be found in anyEU member state from Bantry Bay to the Dniester. [57]

So it is that a former regional-policy advisor at the European Commission can observe that ‘the economic geography of the UK nowadays increasingly reflects the patterns typically observed in developing or former-transition economies rather than in other advanced economies.’ In several peripheral European states—Ireland and Portugal in the far west; the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia to the east—only the capital-city region achieves output per capita above the EU average. [58] The UK is richer, but its long-run development, aside from the short Victorian interlude of factory capitalism, has been similarly monocentric. Northwards redistribution of economic activity from London and the South has never featured high on the list of national political priorities. Today just 2 per cent of households in the North East feature in the top decile of wealth, set against 22 per cent in the South East and 18 per cent in London. Under the Cameron coalition, median household wealth in London increased by 14 per cent, while it fell 8 per cent in Yorkshire and the Humber. [59] The real average jobless rate was last clocked at over 11 per cent in the two most northerly English regions, rising above 16 per cent in the worst blackspots, compared to just 3 or 4 per cent in large parts of the South. At the bottom end of the income ladder, very high deprivation looms largest in a quintet of northern boroughs: Middlesbrough, Knowsley, Hull, Liverpool and Manchester. The South East, of course, has problems of its own. Gentrification is taking the edge off the poverty statistics for east London, but out in the sticks, forgotten Jaywick on the Essex coast is England’s single most destitute neighbourhood. [60] Nevertheless, the phenomenal amount of wealth sloshing around the capital does much to shield the London commentariat from the degradation of outer regions, flattering to deceive that government economic policy is working for the country at large. ‘I’ll tell you what’s at stake’, warned George Osborne, a millionaire Londoner, as the referendum loomed: ‘the prosperity of the British economy, people’s incomes would be hit, the ability to provide for their families would be hit. We’ve not even talked about unemployment.’ [61] His parliamentary seat was a Tory constituency in leafy east Cheshire, one of only four out of 38 areas across northern England where household income per head is above rather than below the national average.

Tom Hazeldine: Revolt of the Rustbelt. New Left Review 105, May-June 2017.

 

[Winot]

Depends on timing I would say - with, say, a month to go for the exit date and it being obvious that there won't be a deal - she could probably withdraw the whip from quite a few. At that stage Labour aren't going to try and stop Brexit, the political cost at home would be too high so they might criticise, but they aren't going to try to stop it. So who can these ex-tory rebels vote with to stop it?

in a vote of no confidence, even abstaining would end their careers, and they aren't going to vote for Corbyn to become PM - and neither are the DUP.

She doesn't need a majority of the house to be Tory and DUP, she just needs a majority who don't want to end their careers or want Corbyn to be PM. That's all that matters in a vote of no confidence, she needs 50%+1, where those votes come from, whether signed up Tories and DUP or 'independants' is of no consequence...

^ This sounds plausible. I wonder though whether before we get to that stage big business will put so much pressure on the Tory party about Brexit uncertainty that they will do a Thatcher on May and replace her with someone else and use that as an excuse to extend the Art. 50 deadline.

In terms of timing Davis has said it might go to the wire and the HoC might not have time to vote beforehand so if they are going to get rid of May then they need to do it earlier.

 

[Silas Loom]

In terms of timing Davis has said it might go to the wire

He was generally agreed to be talking complete bollocks by everyone with any idea about how the EU works, though.

Note that today's two week deadline from Barnier applies because it will take three weeks for the EU Council to mull over whether to declare "sufficient progress". The idea that everything could be sorted out at the last minute is nonsense on stilts.

 

[Winot]

He was generally agreed to be talking complete bollocks by everyone with any idea about how the EU works, though.

Note that today's two week deadline from Barnier applies because it will take three weeks for the EU Council to mull over whether to declare "sufficient progress". The idea that everything could be sorted out at the last minute is nonsense on stilts.

True dat.

 

[kebabking]

^ This sounds plausible. I wonder though whether before we get to that stage big business will put so much pressure on the Tory party about Brexit uncertainty that they will do a Thatcher on May and replace her with someone else and use that as an excuse to extend the Art. 50 deadline...

the left always wildly overstates the impact big business has on tory policy or machinations - if big business were that powerful the referendum would never have happened and the tory party would not have been furiously selecting swivel-eyed loons as parliamentary candidates for the last 30 years.

we had a referendum, and Bill Cash, JRM, John Redwood and IDS are all still MP's, so....

lobbying by the CBI or whatever isn't going to shut up the europhobes anymore than the views of the head of JCB change the minds of Anna Soubry or Philip Hammond - it also fails to grasp the 'reset' that has occured within UK government, both at a political and official level, since David Camerons efforts to get a reordering of the relationship, and which has accelerated beyond measure since the referendum: pretty much the whole of government and the wider state has found the process of dealing with the EU, even over matters where the views are very similar, utterly exasperating.

in 2016 virtually the whole of the government and the senior levels of the civil service were for remain. i wouldn't be suprised if that had dropped by half, and i'd be amazed if you could find 20% of people at that level who think we should rejoin.

 

[Winot]

Well I am married to a senior civil servant and I am not sure about your last point but agree that I might be indulging in wishful thinking in relation to the rest.

 

[kebabking]

Well I am married to a senior civil servant and I am not sure about your last point but agree that I might be indulging in wishful thinking in relation to the rest.

I work in a dept that was solidly, from bottom to top, vigorously remain, and one that has suffered significantly since the referendum - the attitude here has gone from 90%+ for remain to 'fuck em' in 18 months...

 

[Winot]

Further to the discussion about UK car industry up thread:

MPs given stark Brexit warning – UK-based car makers could leave

 

[cyril_smear]

Well, the Mirror would have you believe that it isn't(their hearts in the right place, bless em), but unfortunately it is.

 

[Yossarian]

I work in a dept that was solidly, from bottom to top, vigorously remain, and one that has suffered significantly since the referendum - the attitude here has gone from 90%+ for remain to 'fuck em' in 18 months...

They found being a member of the EU attractive while they were part of it, but soured on it when they found themselves negotiating from outside it?

Where is it that you work, the Department of the Bleeding Obvious?

 

[kebabking]

...Where is it that you work, the Department of the Bleeding Obvious?

Ministry of the Observant. Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis.

the world has changed, events have been reset, that which was is no longer - the wailing of the the remoaners is the wailing of an alleged grown-up who wishes they could return to a time when they believed in Father Christmas. pitiful and contemptable.

its done, the (quite good actually) deal we had within the EU is no longer available, a 're-deal' would be both more expensive (loss of the rebate) and come with less attractive baggage - Schengen, possibly the Euro, loss of opt-outs on the CDSP, and generally a much smaller seat at the table than had previously been the case.

no thanks.

 

[Yossarian]

Ministry of the Observant. Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis.

the world has changed, events have been reset, that which was is no longer - the wailing of the the remoaners is the wailing of an alleged grown-up who wishes they could return to a time when they believed in Father Christmas. pitiful and contemptable.

its done, the (quite good actually) deal we had within the EU is no longer available, a 're-deal' would be both more expensive (loss of the rebate) and come with less attractive baggage - Schengen, possibly the Euro, loss of opt-outs on the CDSP, and generally a much smaller seat at the table than had previously been the case.

no thanks.

Sounds like you work in the Ministry of Saying What People Already Know, in the Department of Being a Condescending Bastard.

 

[kebabking]

Sounds like you work in the Ministry of Saying What People Already Know, in the Department of Being a Condescending Bastard.

given the deafness of some, that condescension seems not unwarranted...

 

[bimble]

Sounds like you work in the Ministry of Saying What People Already Know, in the Department of Being a Condescending Bastard.

Where do I send my cv?

 

[Silas Loom]

Ministry of the Observant. Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis.

the world has changed, events have been reset, that which was is no longer - the wailing of the the remoaners is the wailing of an alleged grown-up who wishes they could return to a time when they believed in Father Christmas. pitiful and contemptable.

its done, the (quite good actually) deal we had within the EU is no longer available, a 're-deal' would be both more expensive (loss of the rebate) and come with less attractive baggage - Schengen, possibly the Euro, loss of opt-outs on the CDSP, and generally a much smaller seat at the table than had previously been the case.

no thanks.

Sez you. Unless you have access to some secret EU Council protocols and private ECJ guidance, you have no idea what would happen in the event of a referendum re-run or a unilateral Westminster revocation.

 

[Poi E]

Where do I send my cv?

My company is always on the look out for condescending bastard team members.

 

[Yossarian]

given the deafness of some, that condescension seems not unwarranted...

Wait, aren't you the guy who boasted about leading a regiment into Iraq, but getting stuck on a bridge and then trying to go the wrong way?

You're basically a war criminal, and one so incompetent that you needed a do-over to complete the deed. And now you work for the government.

Is there a reason why you think anybody should trust what you're saying?

 

[redsquirrel]

Christ. You really calling all the soldiers that took part in Iraq (and Afghanistan) war criminals?

 

[Poi E]

You're basically a war criminal

Out of fucking order

 

[Silas Loom]

You're basically a war criminal

That’s not really fair or reasonable, is it?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

The lawyers do state that brexit could be stopped by the UK government before Mar '19. No renegotiation just stop & carry on as before. This appears to be the legal position unless I am wrong? So there does appear to be a way out if negotiations become impossible. It does seem rather unbelievable that we could go over a cliff edge just because of the intransigence of government. It would be more believable if we had a govenment with a large majority but this one has no majority.

It is very difficult to see where we go from here. It's ok for public opinion to say "they are a bunch of cunts so fuck'em" but they probably don't live in NI or have jobs that depend entirely on free trade with EU.

 

[Winot]

The issue with stopping Brexit isn’t legal it’s political.

 

[Yossarian]

That’s not really fair or reasonable, is it?

Having found the post in question, I withdraw the accusation - he was merely an incompetent accessory to an illegal invasion.

Would you like to hear a funny story about a handsome, witty, talented and hugely successful Royal Artillery Officer and the entire AS90 Regiment (28 self propelled guns, nearly 100 other vehicles and about 800 soldiers) that had to reverse down a single track 'road' for 3 miles while invading an unnamed middle Eastern country that rhymes with back because someone had misread a weight limit estimate for a bridge..?

'Ah well, stuff happens..' this person's boss didn't say.

 

[Silas Loom]

The issue with stopping Brexit isn’t legal it’s political.

True to a certain extent, but if there is a political impasse involving a British reverse ferret and EU27 unwillingness to accept the status quo ante, the ECJ would definitely have to rule on what Kerr’s article and related treaty law actually implies.

 

[cyril_smear]

The issue with stopping Brexit isn’t legal it’s political.

Either way, it will happen; thread over.

 

[kebabking]

The lawyers..

surely any decision about the revocation of A50 is far more about politics than Law - the Lawyer who wrote it says he thinks it would be revocable with no say from anyone but the UK government, but its never been tested, and its not his decision - its the ECJ's, the other member states decision and the EU parliaments decision.

its a bit like thinking that if you withdraw your divorce petition you will automatically going back to honeymoon status and lots of sex. optomistic is i think one way of putting it....

 

[Silas Loom]

Either way, it will happen; thread over.

Not the case. What the sovereignty fetishists think that Brexit means and what they will get over the course of a tortuous “transition period” are completely different. British politics will be plagued by people demanding that Brexit happens for the next dozen years.

 

[Silas Loom]

surely any decision about the revocation of A50 is far more about politics than Law - the Lawyer who wrote it says he thinks it would be revocable with no say from anyone but the UK government, but its never been tested, and its not his decision - its the ECJ's, the other member states decision and the EU parliaments decision.

its a bit like thinking that if you withdraw your divorce petition you will automatically going back to honeymoon status and lots of sex. optomistic is i think one way of putting it....

A few flowers, remember birthdays, take the bins out regularly, and there’s a good chance of sex again. The parallels may not be exact, but your metaphor, not mine.

 

[cyril_smear]

Not the case. What the sovereignty fetishists think that Brexit means and what they will get over the course of a tortuous “transition period” are completely different. British politics will be plagued by people demanding that Brexit happens for the next dozen years.

ye right

 

[Yossarian]

That’s not really fair or reasonable, is it?

Also, I don't feel like bringing it up is particularly irrelevant or below the belt - if somebody has almost literally spearheaded what turned out to be a disastrous foreign policy exercise that left more than a million people dead and destabilised an entire region, and is now acting like they're some kind of master of realpolitik because they changed their mind about Brexit, I think mentioning the past that they have bragged about is fair play.