That’s very true.
The fucker is - right now - we don’t know where we’ll end up.
There’s probably only shades o gray between Corbyn’s position and the tories. I’ll buy Corbyn any day, but he’s not giving a hugely different position.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
That’s very true.
The fucker is - right now - we don’t know where we’ll end up.
There’s probably only shades o gray between Corbyn’s position and the tories. I’ll buy Corbyn any day, but he’s not giving a hugely different position.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
tbf liberals were more of the 'look what unholy terror has been unleashed' whereas the right scum were in full on gloating triumphalism mode. Only both were wrong and now its a near daily 3 ring circus of a government.
I didn't vote corbyn either. The devil he tempts.
I didn't vote corbyn either. The devil he tempts.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Who said most Leave voters thought they were voting for anything in particular? Remainers are obsessed with the idea that people "didn't know what they were voting for", as if it wasn't abundantly obvious to people that voting to Leave was an uncertain thing. Of course it was - but what people were faced with was most of the Tory establishment and most of the Labour establishment and most of the media telling them to vote to remain, maintain the status quo, continue within the EU economic model, carry on with austerity, carry on with what was already happening.
I think people have mentioned earlier that Europe has always been low on voters priorities in most polls. That's true but it also tells you people really don't care about being in either. I think that's secondary for most people, however they express it, to just seeing it as a chance to stick two fingers up and say "no, we're not going to vote for more of the same because it's shit".
I think your criticism of what I'm saying by the way would be fair if I was saying Brexit was the only thing that could possibly improve things. But I'm not saying that, I don't think it will improve things. But I do think to build a movement for something better you need to consistently oppose the architects of neo liberalism and austerity whether that be the ECB or the Tories or the ECJ. In Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and elsewhere there have been incredible mass mobilisations against austerity, and in the Eurozone that means directly against the EU as well as their own governments. The least we can do here is use Brexit to make clear our own politics, reject the economic model of the last 40 or 50 years, and get our own sack of shit austerity government out as soon as possible. And helpfully the Leave vote has weakened the enemy. Can you imagine if Cameron had won the ref and hadn't resigned? Would he have had an election this year do you think?
As DotCommunist said above, a lot of people said a vote to leave would usher in an age of reaction and things are actually shifting to the left dramatically. I think the referendum has acted as a lighthing rod for a lot of this - it's not the platform I would have chosen but we have to react to events as they unfold.
BemusedbyLife
Well-Known Member
Well put I think you are wildly optimistic and will be proved spectacularly wrong but that is the best argument you have put forward so far.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
Agreed.
Singapore is always cited by those of an authoritarian and simplistic mind.
The great man: "I am often accused of interfering in the private lives of citizens. Yes, if I did not, had I not done that, we wouldn’t be here today."
Etc etc.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I agree, but again Corbyn isn't much more than an opportunity. This is the thing - Brexit, Corbyn, all these cracks that are thrown up, these aren't the key points in themselves but the opportunities they provide. I think Corbyn's useless but his supporters are a legit mass movement and the best chance of building a genuine anti austerity workers party.
No we don't know where we'll end up. We haven't since 2008, this is the new normal. But we can't build an alternative around defending the status quo.
Yossarian
⏭️
What proportion of the electorate went for UKIP in 2015, about 10%? And maybe another 40% for the Tories? How many of those twats are going to change their minds?
Brexit is going to be a massive failure. It couldn't possibly be anything else - the UKippers and Tories and Labour voters and miscellaneous who voted for it have nothing else in common except voting to leave the European Union. There is no possible deal that would please all those different groups of voters.
The whole thing is just a distraction - Brexit will happen in one form or another, there will be some kind of deal worked out in which things are mostly the same but a bit shittier, a lot of people will lose their jobs, and we'll still be here 5 years from now complaining about the same old shit. The amount of electable anti-austerity workers parties built will be zero, the amount of rich people getting richer will be immense, and the amount of poor people getting poorer will be even more immense. And that will be partly because people who could otherwise have made a difference spent their time concentrating on this stupid Brexit shit instead of anything that will actually change anything.
That's how I see it, anyway, I'll be very happy if I get proved wrong.
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SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Millions of these "twats" you refer to have already changed their mind and voted Labour this year actually. Wanna know something that will really blow your mind? Some people will have voted UKIP in 2015 and Corbyn''s Labour in 2017. And they won't see a contradiction in that at all, and there largely isn't.
Yossarian
⏭️
Is that actually what happened?
No doubt there was some crossover, but I thought it was a case of different voters turning out: People who hadn't voted in general elections for many years were inspired to vote by Brexit, and younger voters were inspired to come out and vote in larger numbers than usual by Corbyn.
If all the same people had voted in both the referendum and the general election, it might have been a different result in both cases.
SaskiaJayne
Rural Guerrilla
The xenophobic pensioner "bring back maggie"-ites who deserted the tories for UKIP will have voted leave because they hate Europe despite going on holiday there several times a yr. The younger poor who if they voted at all might have voted UKIP will have voted leave to fuck the smooth tory gits like Cameron/Osborne.
The pensioners will go back to the tories & the younger poor could be persuaded to vote Labour if they are convinced Labour might improve their lot which for many will be the provision of decent & affordable rented housing. So provided Corbyn can make his claim to build a million council houses believable he might be on a winner.
The pensioners will go back to the tories & the younger poor could be persuaded to vote Labour if they are convinced Labour might improve their lot which for many will be the provision of decent & affordable rented housing. So provided Corbyn can make his claim to build a million council houses believable he might be on a winner.
mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
I don't agree with the twats bit (i don't think voting either way in the referendum is by itself a good metric for twattishness) but I do agree that this process is going to satisfy nobody and will probably result in no deal. What happens after that, I don't want to speculate, in the same way as I wouldn't draw a circle on a balloon, say ''this bit will land right here'' and then pop it.
Yossarian
⏭️
I don't think voting Remain or Leave is any measure of twattishness, but I just don't have a lot of time for people who looked back at five years of shitty coalition government in 2015 and decided to give the Conservatives more power. I'll cheerfully withdraw "twats" in the case of UKIP voters who thought voting UKIP was the best way to undermine the EU and bring in a socialist British government, but I'm not sure if that applies to too many people.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
You're massively out on the Tory vote, it was 8.4 and 24.4% for UKIP and the Conservatives, respectively.
I've not seen any systematic analysis of where the UKIP vote went, but if you look at Labour seats with a strong UKIP vote in 2015, I think a significant proportion of that vote went across to the Conservatives in 2017.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I'm not sure I totally agree - many traditional Labour areas that voted Leave in massive numbers also registered biggest votes for Labour in decades eg Doncaster, Rotherham near me. Lots of those people probably voted UKIP in 2015, but not many voted Tory in 2017.
Yossarian
⏭️
The government puts it at 36.4% for the Tories and 12.4% for UKIP.
General Election 2015 - Commons Library briefing - UK Parliament
BemusedbyLife
Well-Known Member
I agree with SpackleFrog on this one thing, I think UKIP voters are more likely to otherwise naturally vote Labour, a lot of people voted UKIP for much the same reason Americans voted for Trump, they were offering a solution to those voters feeling of being marginalised (ok it's a dumb one that won't work but at least it was offered). Now we actually have a choice that isn't Tory or Tory-lite then things have changed somewhat and we have a genuine chance at a centre-left government that will make some progress on addressing the serious inequality that has plagued this country for decades.
Pity it could have achieved so much more inside the EU but there we are.
As for a full blooded socialist government nationalising industries and seizing the means of production, Well SpackleFrog I admire your revolutionary zeal but Nope not going to happen not in my lifetime certainly, probably never.
People want fairness and social justice not socialism.
Pity it could have achieved so much more inside the EU but there we are.
As for a full blooded socialist government nationalising industries and seizing the means of production, Well SpackleFrog I admire your revolutionary zeal but Nope not going to happen not in my lifetime certainly, probably never.
People want fairness and social justice not socialism.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Well Rotherham had a drop of -8098 (-21.4%) in the UKIP vote and an increase in the Con vote of +5361 (+14.1%) between 2015 and 2017.
For Doncaster North the equivalent figures are -6190 (-16.1%) and +4452 (9.3%).
So there's a bigger drop in the UKIP vote than increase in the Tory vote, but I think there must be a decent amount of UKIP->Con transfer.
For the North East it's more equal
Hartlepool, UKIP -6251 (-16.5%), Con +6063 (+13.3%)
Sunderland Central, UKIP -5788 (-14.3%), Con +5279 (+9.9%)
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
No that's the share of the vote, you talked about the electorate in #1298. So you need to multiply those figures by 0.664
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sleaterkinney
Well-Known Member
Corbyn has said he wouldn't change his remain vote.
Yossarian
⏭️
My mistake, I'm glad the share of Tory voters is the lower figure.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
citation needed
BemusedbyLife
Well-Known Member
No its a opinion like most of the things in this forum please feel free to present a dissenting argument
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
just checking. I had a little look at attitudes to socialism vs capitalism. Yougov poll from last year has socialism in the UK viewed overall more favourably than capitalism. Breaks down by age with the over 60s quite anti. So your assertion was also opinion, and wrong. Thanks for calling.
Yossarian
⏭️
Hadn't seen that before, interesting stuff - men a lot more likely than women to declare themselves capitalists or socialists, Scots much less likely than anybody else to call themselves capitalits, and a deeply confused 2% of Conservative voters say they're socialists.
YouGov | What the world thinks
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
found the US comparisons interesting as well.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
The opinion that a left-of-centre UK govt in the shape of Corbyn-led Labour could achieve more inside the EU than outside it is one worth examining, though. r/w UK govts have done a lot to shape the character of the EU over recent decades - what kind of influence in a different direction might a l/w govt have? What kinds of practical restraints on policy might a l/w govt outside the EU face? How might the interests of capital dictate to a post-brexit UK? Might they be strengthened, limiting the scope for action even more tightly?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
well to take a single issue 'the EU would not allow nationalising of the rail' to which the answer as usual turned out to be yes and no, but full state ownership uncontested is off the cards. iirc. As for influencing its the EU's direction of travel, well I'm not going to speculate beyond 'I recon' on a counterfactual but from the overall behaviour of the entity we'd get nowhere with that change-from-within idea imo.
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