Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[DexterTCN]

I think this has been put out unannounced to the public.

On 23 August 2018 HMRC published three Technical Notices (TNs) on Gov.UK, about what will happen in the event of no deal on:

• Customs and Excise Procedures.
• VAT for Businesses.
• Tariffs.

The Government will soon be publishing a second batch of Technical Notices.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I cant see crashing out happening - its too destructive socially, economically and politically. In the run up to no deal their will be growing panic from every direction (with the FTSE and the value of the pound taking a dive will adding to the sense of crises) and the pressure on the government will be intolerable. I think the likeliest option is some sort of fudge that prolongs the whole miserable process for another couple of years - after which - dunno - labour might win a GE backing a 2nd ref.

 

[gosub]

I cant see crashing out happening - its too destructive socially, economically and politically. In the run up to no deal their will be growing panic from every direction (with the FTSE and the value of the pound taking a dive will adding to the sense of crises) and the pressure on the government will be intolerable. I think the likeliest option is some sort of fudge that prolongs the whole miserable process for another couple of years - after which - dunno - labour might win a GE backing a 2nd ref.

I sort of agree. Accept that would say crashing out will be equally socially, economically and politically destructive to the rest of Europe too, whilst I think they think their contingency planning is better, it won't be up to the job... If the whole thing wasn't SO serious the absurdity of the way things have gone down would be funny. - Two immovable objects demanding the impossible before breakfast of each other whilst all the time an 'unstoppable' clock ticks down.

 

[Winot]

Interesting analysis here which seems to make as much sense as anything does right now:

mainly macro: Why Brexiters look defeated

 

[DotCommunist]

£20 on delaying it till end of 2019

with or without a GE taking place during that period? Dunno. I'm not taking the bet tho.

 

[Ranbay]

with or without a GE taking place during that period? Dunno. I'm not taking the bet tho.

I think the EU would let us delay it in a no deal situation, but also it's such a cluster fuck who would want to be PM and have to manage/deliver it? so maybe

 

[Winot]

An Article 50 extension is the most rational choice if you want to leave the EU and have time to do so smoothly. But it would be politically unacceptable to a huge proportion of the UK public, who are already incredulous that Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

Also I suspect there are quite a few EU member states who are fed up with the whole thing and just want the certainty of it being done.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

An Article 50 extension is the most rational choice if you want to leave the EU and have time to do so smoothly. But it would be politically unacceptable to a huge proportion of the UK public, who are already incredulous that Brexit hasn’t happened yet..

Would it, or would it merely be politically unacceptable to a particularly vocal section of the r/w press? I would think that a decent proportion of the 48 per cent who voted remain would find an extension acceptable, while a fair proportion of the 52 per cent who voted leave would find the idea of crashing out without a deal unacceptable.

 

[sleaterkinney]

£20 on delaying it till end of 2019 and then a deal of some sort, i'm not conviced no deal will happen.

IMO ( which means we will crash out with no deal in March as i'm always wrong)

Isn't that what the transition period is?

 

[Winot]

Would it, or would it merely be politically unacceptable to a particularly vocal section of the r/w press? I would think that a decent proportion of the 48 per cent who voted remain would find an extension acceptable, while a fair proportion of the 52 per cent who voted leave would find the idea of crashing out without a deal unacceptable.

No idea. But I think it’d be the end of May, which is why I don’t think she’ll risk it.

 

[Winot]

No idea. But I think it’d be the end of May, which is why I don’t think she’ll risk it.

And bear in mind the Tories have backed down on pretty much everything so far.

 

[andysays]

An Article 50 extension is the most rational choice if you want to leave the EU and have time to do so smoothly. But it would be politically unacceptable to a huge proportion of the UK public, who are already incredulous that Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

Also I suspect there are quite a few EU member states who are fed up with the whole thing and just want the certainty of it being done.

I think the political unacceptability would be mostly down to the complete failure of the govt to sort out reasonable terms on which to leave in a timely fashion, rather than with the idea of leaving itself, except among those Remain supporters who still haven't accepted that the result went against them and who come out with stuff like this

Would it, or would it merely be politically unacceptable to a particularly vocal section of the r/w press? I would think that a decent proportion of the 48 per cent who voted remain would find an extension acceptable, while a fair proportion of the 52 per cent who voted leave would find the idea of crashing out without a deal unacceptable.

 

[Ranbay]

Isn't that what the transition period is?

I duno, i mean delaying the 29th March thingy to end of the year, so we can make a plan..

kinda like a homework extension yeah?

 

[gosub]

with or without a GE taking place during that period? Dunno. I'm not taking the bet tho.

Need to be better worded than that, as is if a deal is reached it wouldn't kick in til 1/1/2020 anyway

 

[SpackleFrog]

a left leaning government would likely have less freedom of action outside the EU because it would be more isolated, weaker and forced to take worse conditions on things like trade deals and international investment.
the uk economy is meshed into the system of international capitalism weather we are inside or outside the EU. Without a much stronger manufacturing base and/or a much higher degree of self sufficiency in things like energy and food the uk will be very vulnerable. And the EU would likely be at the front of the queue to fuck us over.

Haven't really acknowledged what I've said there but fine.

 

[SpackleFrog]

More freedom of action from within the EU, practically rather than in some abstract notion that 'well we could do this, but we won't because various powerful interests would make life very difficult for us if we did'. (And what are bilateral trade deals, those things that nobody gave a fuck about but that are now all the rage? They are a series of agreements between nations in which they agree to certain sets of rules. A trade deal with the US, for instance, would necessarily involve giving US businesses additional legal rights: rights to buy up UK interests and to have those investments protected. Our hypothetical l/w govt, by the time it gets into power, might in such a situation be up against US investors, backed by a US trade deal, who would oppose nationalisation.)

It isn't necessarily a good reflection on the EU, btw, if the larger countries can get away with things that smaller countries probably can't, but France flouted the eurozone's borrowing rules for years and nobody said a thing, cos it's France. Some specific ideas have been floated here such as that the EU would block any UK govt attempt to privatise the railway network that did not follow very specific, restrictive EU rules regarding tenders. It wouldn't. The UK could invoke national interest in taking control of infrastructure and just do it.

Again kind of ignoring my point.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think the political unacceptability would be mostly down to the complete failure of the govt to sort out reasonable terms on which to leave in a timely fashion, rather than with the idea of leaving itself, except among those Remain supporters who still haven't accepted that the result went against them and who come out with stuff like this

Bizarre how this gets trotted out so regularly. You sound like the Daily Express with this guff.

 

[SpackleFrog]

What do you believe the alternative was and why do you believe the Greek goverment didn't take it?

(Apologies for thread derail)

Obviously the alternative, refusing to agree the memorandum, would have meant the risk of Greece being ejected from the EU and the currency union. In addition it's likely that international markets and the Troika would want to make an example of Greece and its likely that would result in significant economic pain short term and medium term with no prospect of recovery.

In that situation, there is a way forward which would allow you to meet the needs of the population. But it would in effect require radical Socialist policies - a monopoly on all foreign trade and currency flows for example to ensure there was enough food and prevent mass capital flight, immediate nationalisation of all major industry and infrastructure, as well as banks, financial institutions and communications. You would in a very real sense need to be able to wheel out a basic command economy that would protect people from the instability of markets and some form of new currency would have to be introduced, even if only for use within Greece itself to allow transactions. Xekinima the Greek section of the CWI have raised the idea of a dual currency for some time now - repudiating the debt and using the Euro reserves for international trade while bringing back the drachma to allow people to buy food and neccessities.

Quite frankly it wouldn't be pretty and would require the active support and mobilisation of the Greek working class, something Syriza never took steps towards because they believed they could 'debate' austerity measures with the Troika. Costas Lapavitsas did warn about this and resigned from Syriza following the sell out but unfortunately did not do much to actively raise the alternative.

But the point is, there was an alternative to staying in the EU and accepting more austerity measures - it would just have required a pretty radical break with the current economic model.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

(Apologies for thread derail)

Obviously the alternative, refusing to agree the memorandum, would have meant the risk of Greece being ejected from the EU and the currency union. In addition it's likely that international markets and the Troika would want to make an example of Greece and its likely that would result in significant economic pain short term and medium term with no prospect of recovery.

In that situation, there is a way forward which would allow you to meet the needs of the population. But it would in effect require radical Socialist policies - a monopoly on all foreign trade and currency flows for example to ensure there was enough food and prevent mass capital flight, immediate nationalisation of all major industry and infrastructure, as well as banks, financial institutions and communications. You would in a very real sense need to be able to wheel out a basic command economy that would protect people from the instability of markets and some form of new currency would have to be introduced, even if only for use within Greece itself to allow transactions. Xekinima the Greek section of the CWI have raised the idea of a dual currency for some time now - repudiating the debt and using the Euro reserves for international trade while bringing back the drachma to allow people to buy food and neccessities.

Quite frankly it wouldn't be pretty and would require the active support and mobilisation of the Greek working class, something Syriza never took steps towards because they believed they could 'debate' austerity measures with the Troika. Costas Lapavitsas did warn about this and resigned from Syriza following the sell out but unfortunately did not do much to actively raise the alternative.

But the point is, there was an alternative to staying in the EU and accepting more austerity measures - it would just have required a pretty radical break with the current economic model.

Likelihood of another civil war had this happened?

 

[andysays]

Bizarre how this gets trotted out so regularly. You sound like the Daily Express with this guff.

You do actually sound like a Remain supporter who still hasn't accepted that the result went against them. What is your evidence for this claim

Would it, or would it merely be politically unacceptable to a particularly vocal section of the r/w press? I would think that a decent proportion of the 48 per cent who voted remain would find an extension acceptable, while a fair proportion of the 52 per cent who voted leave would find the idea of crashing out without a deal unacceptable.

 

[treelover]

Madeleina Kay #EUsupergirl (@albawhitewolf) on Twitter

Apparently remainers now have their own EU Supergirl, Madeleinea Kay, from Sheffield

 

[SpackleFrog]

Likelihood of another civil war had this happened?

In Greece? No, I don't think so. Do you have a reason for raising that or are you just attempting to justufy the There Is No Alternative line.

 

[MickiQ]

(Apologies for thread derail)

Obviously the alternative, refusing to agree the memorandum, would have meant the risk of Greece being ejected from the EU and the currency union. In addition it's likely that international markets and the Troika would want to make an example of Greece and its likely that would result in significant economic pain short term and medium term with no prospect of recovery.

In that situation, there is a way forward which would allow you to meet the needs of the population. But it would in effect require radical Socialist policies - a monopoly on all foreign trade and currency flows for example to ensure there was enough food and prevent mass capital flight, immediate nationalisation of all major industry and infrastructure, as well as banks, financial institutions and communications. You would in a very real sense need to be able to wheel out a basic command economy that would protect people from the instability of markets and some form of new currency would have to be introduced, even if only for use within Greece itself to allow transactions. Xekinima the Greek section of the CWI have raised the idea of a dual currency for some time now - repudiating the debt and using the Euro reserves for international trade while bringing back the drachma to allow people to buy food and neccessities.

Quite frankly it wouldn't be pretty and would require the active support and mobilisation of the Greek working class, something Syriza never took steps towards because they believed they could 'debate' austerity measures with the Troika. Costas Lapavitsas did warn about this and resigned from Syriza following the sell out but unfortunately did not do much to actively raise the alternative.

But the point is, there was an alternative to staying in the EU and accepting more austerity measures - it would just have required a pretty radical break with the current economic model.

That's actually a very good answer, it might even have worked but there are lots of reasons why it might have failed, If the outside world wasn't willing to accept Greece's Euros for trade, if Greece couldn't produce enough basic necessities on its own,
Even if it worked it would mean at least a generation of subsistence living with the ever present chance of revolution.
You're right though it is an alternative, potentially far more disastrous than accepting what they were given but potentially with the chance it might have worked given enough time and sacrifice.

 

[Poi E]

Anywsy

Madeleina Kay #EUsupergirl (@albawhitewolf) on Twitter

Apparently remainers now have their own EU Supergirl, Madeleinea Kay, from Sheffield

All I see is the red, white and blue of another shady union.

 

[SpackleFrog]

That's actually a very good answer, it might even have worked but there are lots of reasons why it might have failed, If the outside world wasn't willing to accept Greece's Euros for trade, if Greece couldn't produce enough basic necessities on its own,
Even if it worked it would mean at least a generation of subsistence living with the ever present chance of revolution.
You're right though it is an alternative, potentially far more disastrous than accepting what they were given but potentially with the chance it might have worked given enough time and sacrifice.

I mean, I think that would potentially be the beginnings of a revolution rather than a solution which held the risk of a revolution.

I absolutely agree it is a strategy that could easily be derailed or go wrong. But I think we have to recognise the scale of the disaster that accepting the memorandum has created and the decades long effects it will have, as well as the fact that following the election of Syriza to government there was a genuine window of opportunity for a radical transformation, particularly after the 'Oxi' vote.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

In Greece? No, I don't think so. Do you have a reason for raising that or are you just attempting to justufy the There Is No Alternative line.

There was a civil war in Greece 60 years or so ago followed by a period of military rule. Given that there would be opposition to such moves within Greece, which would receive backing from outside, I see reasons to fear civil war in such a situation (and a return to military rule). What kinds of internal opposition would you see to such moves? How would those be dealt with?

You misjudge me here, btw, quite badly, because you and others seem to think that anyone who can mention anything good about the EU must be some kind of neoliberal cheerleader. I'm nothing of the kind.

 

[MickiQ]

Madeleina Kay #EUsupergirl (@albawhitewolf) on Twitter

Apparently remainers now have their own EU Supergirl, Madeleinea Kay, from Sheffield

Whilst I am fundamentally in favour of young women in skimpy outfits it really isn't a sound basis for serious political debate.

 

[SpackleFrog]

There was a civil war in Greece 60 years or so ago followed by a period of military rule. Given that there would be opposition to such moves within Greece, which would receive backing from outside, I see reasons to fear civil war in such a situation. What kinds of internal opposition would you see to such moves? How would those be dealt with?

You misjudge me here, btw, quite badly, because you and others seem to think that anyone who can mention anything good about the EU must be some kind of neoliberal cheerleader. I'm nothing of the kind.

I mean, in any situation where a radical left government comes to power and enact measures which fundamentally transform the economy, there is a danger of huge destabilisation, including from outside that country. But it's not a good reason not to it is it?

Where would be if the Bolsheviks had said "lets not seize power the world will go to war with Russia and flood the country with agents and spies?"

I don't see the fact that there is civil war in the past means it would be particularly likely again - countries that have gone through civil war tend not to be keen on a repeat of the process. Sure, this strategy would be met with opposition but it's still better than accepting the austerity measures and consigning generations to crippling poverty.

 

[gosub]

Madeleina Kay #EUsupergirl (@albawhitewolf) on Twitter

Apparently remainers now have their own EU Supergirl, Madeleinea Kay, from Sheffield

Not the first
Captain Euro | Europe's superhero!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I mean, in any situation where a radical left government comes to power and enact measures which fundamentally transform the economy, there is a danger of huge destabilisation, including from outside that country. But it's not a good reason not to it is it?

Where would be if the Bolsheviks had said "lets not seize power the world will go to war with Russia and flood the country with agents and spies?"

I don't see the fact that there is civil war in the past means it would be particularly likely again - countries that have gone through civil war tend not to be keen on a repeat of the process. Sure, this strategy would be met with opposition but it's still better than accepting the austerity measures and consigning generations to crippling poverty.

The world was already at war when the Bolsheviks seized power.