Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

Let me help you... Nationalisation Is Not Against EU Law | HuffPost UK

From the article you posted: "Professor Nicol raises an important point. The EU probably encroaches on the sovereignty of member states to its most egregious degree when it comes to market liberalisation. Art. 176 TFEU commits member states to the expansion of markets."

This is a better source than HuffPost - How the Single Market blocks socialist policies

Explains it a bit better than I have, admittedly, but then I don't even know why I'm bothering - "Large-scale nationalisation would breach the Lisbon Treaty. Small-scale nationalisation would have to comply with competition laws which make it ineffective, or breach the Lisbon Treaty. Big state subsidies to save or create jobs would breach the Lisbon Treaty."

 

[Raheem]

From the article you posted: "Professor Nicol raises an important point. The EU probably encroaches on the sovereignty of member states to its most egregious degree when it comes to market liberalisation. Art. 176 TFEU commits member states to the expansion of markets."

This is a better source than HuffPost - How the Single Market blocks socialist policies

Explains it a bit better than I have, admittedly, but then I don't even know why I'm bothering - "Large-scale nationalisation would breach the Lisbon Treaty. Small-scale nationalisation would have to comply with competition laws which make it ineffective, or breach the Lisbon Treaty. Big state subsidies to save or create jobs would breach the Lisbon Treaty."

I'm certainly not going to question the expertise of the Nottingham Socialist Party. However, it must be the case that their looking at EU legislation and talking about what it maybe might possibly theoretically mean in practice is not quite definitive. It is a fact that lots of nationalisations have happened in EU countries. and it's also a fact (or so I believe) that none has ever been blocked. It's not clear from the article what is meant by "large scale nationalisation", but I am willing to concede that attempting to nationalise the entire economy would probably be difficult while remaining a member of the EU. I think that's a bridge to discuss when we come to it, though.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm certainly not going to question the expertise of the Nottingham Socialist Party. However, it must be the case that their looking at EU legislation and talking about what it maybe might possibly theoretically mean in practice is not quite definitive. It is a fact that lots of privatisations have happened in EU countries. and it's also a fact (or so I believe) that none has ever been blocked. It's not clear from the article what is meant by "large scale nationalisation", but I am willing to concede that attempting to nationalise the entire economy would probably be difficult while remaining a member of the EU. I think that's a bridge to discuss when we come to it, though.

I didn't ask for the referendum and given the choice I would rather elect a government that would break the Lisbon treaty through large scale nationalisation than have had the referendum - crossing the bridge as we come to it as you put it. But you don't get to choose, this is what's going on. In any case what I said was that the treaty prohibits taking services back into public ownership - thank you for conceding that is the case.

 

[Raheem]

thank you for conceding that is the case.

And thank you for this silly, transparent bullshit.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think one reason for brexit was the UK's following of EU rules to the letter over the decades whereas other countries just seemed to avoid the bits that did not suit them. For example whereas UK companies developed whole business models to take advantage of cheap & plentiful immigrant labour other countries like France by retaining strong employment law made it much less easy & profitable to employ foreign workers.

 

[redsquirrel]

The EU is a self serving power bloc heavily influenced by neo-liberalism thats institutionalised into its rules and in bodies like the ECB. Its also massively corrupt.

But the only plausible alternative right now is even more shit by an order of magnitude.

If you are relying on the EU (or the Labour Party/SNP/Greens for that matter) to protect people then you're already up shit creek.

The changes that will improve our society will only come from labour. I'm under no illusions that leaving the EU will lead to socialism, it won't even necessarily lead to a situation where labour power is increased. But it does have the potential to open doors, reversing the vote now would not only shut the door on those possibilities it would reinvigorate the EU and capital - empower it to murder even more in Greece, Spain, Italy etc.

Let's be clear capital backed Remain en masse, indeed it still backs the EU project. That alone should be enough to give anyone who claims to be a socialist pause for thought.

 

[pocketscience]

Yes, and? In the context of the UK 'hard brexit' will be the hammer that smashes what remains of the nhs, etc on the anvil of the 'free market'

The chief culprit of such policies of any European country is Luxembourg. To point towards a single person in Luxembourg's recent history responsible for implementing such policies you'd have to point to Juncker. As prime-minister of Luxembourg he turned the country into exactly that what you fear. Because he was so ruthless about how he did that he was rewarded for that with the job heading up the Eu and steering a transition to a federal state. I wonder what his agenda will be there? The writings on the wall (well, wikipedia actually).

In early November 2014, just days after becoming head of the commission, Juncker was hit by media disclosures—derived from a document leak known as LuxLeaks—that Luxembourg under his premiership had turned into a major European centre of corporate tax avoidance. With the aid of the Luxembourg government, companies transferred tax liability for many billions of euros to Luxembourg, where the income was taxed at a fraction of 1%. Juncker, who in a speech in Brussels in July 2014 promised to "try to put some morality, some ethics, into the European tax landscape", was sharply criticized following the leaks. A subsequent motion of censure in the European parliament was brought against Juncker over his role in the tax avoidance schemes. The motion was defeated by a large majority.

In 2017, leaked diplomatic cables show Juncker, as Luxembourg’s prime minister from 1995 until the end of 2013, blocked EU efforts to fight tax avoidance by multinational corporations. Luxembourg agreed to multinational businesses on an individualised deal basis, often at an effective rate of less than 1%.

A 2nd referendum is a vote for this cunt!

 

[Sasaferrato]

A plentiful supply of credulous, bitter old fuckers like Sasaferrato probably helps with this big-lie-spreading strategy.

Fuck off cunt face.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Many of the actions are contrary to the best interests of the 27 member states. They are in the best interests of the institutions of the EU, not the member states. It is not in the interests of the member states to leave citizens fucked on residency rights, nor is it in the interests of member states to end up with trade tariffs. The process has laid bare the problems with devolving your decision making to institutions whose interests are not necessarily aligned with yours.

In addition, the EU have really pushed ahead with further federalisation in the 18 months since the Brexit vote. Even if the vote had been to remain, their current direction of travel would have given me pause in and of itself.

Davis should be playing hard ball, as in 'Do you ever want to sell another car into the UK?'. Or bottle of wine, or cheese etc etc. There is nothing we buy from the rest of the EU that we cannot buy elsewhere. It would be a huge financial hit for the EU.

We should be developing new markets now, if we have somewhere else to sell our goods and services, it would put immense pressure on the EU.

 

[Sasaferrato]

and el corbvz 30 years (man and boy) as MP

Neither have been a shadow minister. McDonnell hasn't a clue about serious finance.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I think one reason for brexit was the UK's following of EU rules to the letter over the decades whereas other countries just seemed to avoid the bits that did not suit them. For example whereas UK companies developed whole business models to take advantage of cheap & plentiful immigrant labour other countries like France by retaining strong employment law made it much less easy & profitable to employ foreign workers.

Thanks, I was about to post pretty much the same thing.

 

[Yossarian]

We should be developing new markets now, if we have somewhere else to sell our goods and services, it would put immense pressure on the EU.

That never seems to work out so well.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Neither have been a shadow minister. McDonnell hasn't a clue about serious finance.

Not a prerequisite if you look over recent history

 

[not-bono-ever]

Davis should be playing hard ball, as in 'Do you ever want to sell another car into the UK?'. Or bottle of wine, or cheese etc etc. There is nothing we buy from the rest of the EU that we cannot buy elsewhere. It would be a huge financial hit for the EU.

We should be developing new markets now, if we have somewhere else to sell our goods and services, it would put immense pressure on the EU.

No one with any sense is going to take the UK seriously for a decade wrt negotiations. Diplomats across the globe are pulling their hair out at the performance of HMG back home -its a black running joke in some places now

 

[Kaka Tim]

If you are relying on the EU (or the Labour Party/SNP/Greens for that matter) to protect people then you're already up shit creek.

The changes that will improve our society will only come from labour. I'm under no illusions that leaving the EU will lead to socialism, it won't even necessarily lead to a situation where labour power is increased. But it does have the potential to open doors, reversing the vote now would not only shut the door on those possibilities it would reinvigorate the EU and capital - empower it to murder even more in Greece, Spain, Italy etc.

Let's be clear capital backed Remain en masse, indeed it still backs the EU project. That alone should be enough to give anyone who claims to be a socialist pause for thought.

Hard brexit - and that is the only kind likely to be available - will mean a significant reduction in the amount of money the government can spend on stuff like social housing and the NHS. It really is a no brainer.

It will fuck me, my freinds (esp those who are EU nationals) and it will fuck the community where i work - which is in one of the most deprived areas of leeds. It will further tighten both the squeeze on Local authority budgets and the pot of money for charities - services that people utterly depend on will be slashed or junked all together - ( oh - it would also threaten my own job) . At the moment we are looking at a community housing programme in the area - desperately needed, decent quality, rented accommodation. Stuff like that all over the country will be under serious threat. oh - yeah - then there's all the EU funded projects directed at low income areas.

Rather than choose a hypothectical - and frankly pretty unlikley - road to socialism via economic misery - i'll go with what is most likely to lead to better conditions in the here and now.

and "junker is a cunt" is not much of an argument. There is no shortage of cunts on both sides of the brexit split.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think one reason for brexit was the UK's following of EU rules to the letter over the decades whereas other countries just seemed to avoid the bits that did not suit them. For example whereas UK companies developed whole business models to take advantage of cheap & plentiful immigrant labour other countries like France by retaining strong employment law made it much less easy & profitable to employ foreign workers.

And Germany going back on their word and outright refusing to allow new EU citizens from the east freedom of movement in to Germany at the agreed date, leaving them with just the UK to head to, probably the biggest reason for the leave vote.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I'll stand corrected on Scotland although I'm surprised - EU very clear last year that there is no exemption for Ireland.

European Commission confirms its view that we are no longer exempt from water charges

I see your confusion, we in Scotland do however pay water charges. Via the council tax.

 

[Raheem]

A 2nd referendum is a vote for this cunt!

If you really want to be out from under the EU yoke, a second referendum is likely to be your best shot, IMO.

 

[pocketscience]

and "junker is a cunt" is not much of an argument. There is no shortage of cunts on both sides of the brexit split.

The difference is, one's in a very commanding position right now and you don't have a chance of removing him, while the others are in a complete shambles and on the brink of annihilation and in all likelihood will be defeated in a landslide at the next election.

You have a very unique chance at this very moment in history to kill those two birds with one stone.
You appear to me to be bottling it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

You have a very unique chance at this very moment in history to kill those two birds with one stone.
You appear to me to be bottling it.

But the tories are fucked whatever they do. Labour government still in the EU will have far more opportunity to do something positive than labour government inheriting hard brexit. mainly because the economy will be fucked.
Arguing for the option that doesn't see the poorest half of the population get even more fucked is not "bottling it". What a pathetic comment.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Fuck off cunt face.

Nicely put. I'll take it as an admission that you have no evidence that a Labour government would definitely bankrupt the nation with excessive borrowing beyond a parrot-like repetition of hackneyed tory party propaganda shall I?

 

[pocketscience]

But the tories are fucked whatever they do.
Labour government still in the EU will have far more opportunity to do something positive than labour government inheriting hard brexit. mainly because the economy will be fucked.
Arguing for the option that doesn't see the poorest half of the population get even more fucked is not "bottling it". What a pathetic comment.

A 2nd referendum going against brexit would bring the core neo-liberal tories come back to the Eu fold (i.e where the vast majority of the Eu27 are right now - centre right)
Corbyn is as much as a threat to Juncker as brexit is. Labour would be out in the cold, and Juncker would finish Corbyn off in no time. Just look what happed to greece

 

[redsquirrel]

Rather than choose a hypothectical - and frankly pretty unlikley - road to socialism via economic misery - i'll go with what is most likely to lead to better conditions in the here and now.

Hang on, I've literally just said that I don't believe leaving the EU will lead to socialism so this a complete and utter strawman.

As for the argument that 'hard brexit' (whatever is meant by that) = recession. We'll I don't think that's necessarily true but if it does lead to a recession then I think you should ask yourself why. The answer being because capital will try to punish labour when it doesn't behave in the manner it wants.

Do you think that capital will not try to punish any attempt to oppose neo-liberalism? For example the nationalisation of industries, higher tax rates etc. If you give up arguing for a course of action based on what capital wants than you've already given up on socialism.

 

[Wilf]

A 2nd referendum going against brexit would bring the core neo-liberal tories come back to the Eu fold (i.e where the vast majority of the Eu27 are right now - centre right)
Corbyn is as much as a threat to Juncker as brexit is. Labour would be out in the cold, and Juncker would finish Corbyn off in no time. Just look what happed to greece

I still come back to the mechanics and practicalities of a second referendum. Tories are in power for 5 years, which sees them beyond Brexit and they aren't going to pull another early election after what happened this year. I can't see any Tory faction coming out with an actual proposal to go for a second referendum before departure day - nor build a cross party coalition to defeat the brexit majority in the tory party (not so much the people who were always pro-brexit, but the tories who see no way back from brexit). Aside from some unexpected events there won't be a second ref because nobody thinks there's a successful political campaign/career around the idea of a second ref (give or take the libdem lice).

 

[Kaka Tim]

As for the argument that 'hard brexit' (whatever is meant by that) = recession. We'll I don't think that's necessarily true but if it does lead to a recession then I think you should ask yourself why. The answer being because capital will try to punish labour when it doesn't behave in the manner it wants.

.

It will likely cause a recession because of a the interrelated impact of a fall in value of currency, capital flight, the inevitable chaos of severing 40 years of legal and trade agreements, a decline in investment and companies folding as a result of losing their biggest export market and rise in the cost of imports from the EU. This will happen not because of a conscious decision of the agents of Capital to punish uppity "brexiters" - but because of cold hard sums on balance sheets. These things matter and have a real impact on people.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A 2nd referendum going against brexit would bring the core neo-liberal tories come back to the Eu fold (i.e where the vast majority of the Eu27 are right now - centre right)
Corbyn is as much as a threat to Juncker as brexit is. Labour would be out in the cold, and Juncker would finish Corbyn off in no time. Just look what happed to greece

Can you give an example of one of the ways the EU could fuck over the UK that is comparable to how it fucked over Greece?

 

[redsquirrel]

It will likely cause a recession because of a the interrelated impact of a fall in value of currency, capital flight, the inevitable chaos of severing 40 years of legal and trade agreements, a decline in investment and companies folding as a result of losing their biggest export market and rise in the cost of imports from the EU.

What do you think capital flight is except by an attempt by capital to punish labour.

This will happen not because of a conscious decision of the agents of Capital to punish uppity "brexiters" - but because of cold hard sums on balance sheets. These things matter and have a real impact on people.

I've not talked about agents of capital. And as for cold hard sums, well you mean like the cold hard sums of the OBR, which they've admitted have been bollocks for the last decade. Economics is an ideology not a science. As for things having a real impact on people, I couldn't agree more, the attacks of the EU on Greece have lead to a 5% increase in the infant mortality rate.

 

[Teaboy]

What I'm confused about is that some of the same people who have been banging the drum for free trade and the importance of the free markets for years (and have shouted down any suggestion that free trade isn't good for everyone), now seem to be the exact same people who are bang up for starting a fuck off big trade war with our largest trading partner and most obvious trade partner for the future.

 

[pocketscience]

Can you give an example of one of the ways the EU could fuck over the UK that is comparable to how it fucked over Greece?

I mentioned it here:

If you want negative speculation, how about imagining beyond a second referendum where remain win, and upon the announcement of the result the Eu turns around with a big 'Fuck You!'... 'You can only come back on the conditions you agree to an increased of the UKs contributions by 300%, hand over all the euro pass-porting rights to Frankfurt, and you have to get rid of the pound sterling'. You know, like what they did to Greece. How far would you be willing to bend over their barrel?

in general, I don't think they'd really want us back. The UK's now a liability, a major risk to their project.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I mentioned it here:

​

in general, I don't think they'd really want us back. The UK's now a liability, a major risk to their project.

That particular list of conditions would be politically impossible and lead to a sure exit of the EU by the UK. This is one of the problems with the idea of ruling by referendum - we must leave at any cost or we must stay at any cost. Both are stupid positions.