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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
philosophical said:
Is this the post with two questions that you keep referring to?

'I accept it is a problem for everybody living here, but finding a solution is down to the brexiters.
Why should people who think brexit is absurd have to be part of a solution, especially if they don't have one? Isn't their destiny to endure what they must, yet react if they can?'

Which one do you want me to explain?
Click to expand...
You're really missing the point. If your role in this is genuinely to do nothing but endure whatever fate has for you, on what grounds do you think anybody owes you an answer for what happens next? What are you going to do with that answer? This is bad faith questioning -- you are asking a question that in reality you have no intention of adapting to the answer for.

The answer to "What about the Irish border", for the umpteenth time, is to do one of the following:

1) Stay in the customs union
2) Impose a hard border between the north and south of Ireland
3) Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by keeping NI alone in the customs union
4) Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by unifying Ireland

All these options can be made to work in practice and you will need to endure one of those options as your fate. If you don't like any of them, now's the time to come up with something better. If you favour one of them, now's the time to make your case for making it happen. If you don't do any of this then tough shit when one of them happens in spite of your opinions on it. You don't get a veto just because you didn't vote for it.
 
little Englander aspect of thing

See this is what annoys people, these little digs and silly labels
I think Dianne Abbott is THEE worst Mp ever, not because shes black or a women or Labour, its because she is a awful human being and incompetent .
And many many people i talk to think the same.
But your type just lazily shout out sexist,Racist and all the other crap lazy labels
You can still go to italy and eat pizza, go to france and eat frogs legs and all the other lovely food they have.
Visit Germany and see the sites and eat sausage.
Visit Holland and the "delights" it has to offer. Spain for the sun etc etc etc
Nothing has changed, you are not banned from going to these places, they wont shoot you or take your Passport away
Its just all bollox, tbh ive traveled all over and ive never thought of myself as European anyway
im English-British. Not something ive ever thought deep about in my life tbh
All this flag waving and fake love for the EU i find cringey and embarrasing .
I will say this thou, this country will never ever be the same again imho, as i always felt deep down there was a section of people in this country who with this vote have shown they think they are better than others
And this vote has brought all this out.
I was correct in thinking this 100% it seems.
All this nasty aggressive stuff "gammon heads", "Thick northerners", Wishing death on their elders, all these celebs coming out with their crap and winding people up, its been awful
 
Last edited:
kabbes said:
You're really missing the point. If your role in this is genuinely to do nothing but endure whatever fate has for you, on what grounds do you think anybody owes you an answer for what happens next? What are you going to do with that answer? This is bad faith questioning -- you are asking a question that in reality you have no intention of adapting to the answer for.

The answer to "What about the Irish border", for the umpteenth time, is to do one of the following:

1) Stay in the customs union
2) Impose a hard border between the north and south of Ireland
3) Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by keeping NI alone in the customs union
4) Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by unifying Ireland

All these options can be made to work in practice and you will need to endure one of those options as your fate. If you don't like any of them, now's the time to come up with something better. If you favour one of them, now's the time to make your case for making it happen. If you don't do any of this then tough shit when one of them happens in spite of your opinions on it. You don't get a veto just because you didn't vote for it.
Click to expand...

I have not said I am 'owed' an answer, but I do seek to know what the answer is. It is a bit like the weather forecast, you can't do anything about what is to come, but you can be prepared for it. Ultimately you have to endure it.

You say these options can be made to 'work' in practice, but I wonder how the concept of it 'working' will be measured.

For the sake of what I say about them I am assuming that there are four main planks of what brexit is supposed to be, but feel free to tell me that brexit wasn't or isn't about any of them.

The four bits as I understand it are:

1. For the UK to be unrestricted in sorting out deals with anybody it likes.
2. To control and reduce immigration.
3. To control it's borders in terms of both people and goods.
4. To have some kind of 'in house' sovereignty and democracy, with particular emphasis on laws, rules and regulations.

I recognise the four things you have suggested could be done somehow, but I see them as either conflicting with the aims of what brexit is supposed to be, or carrying a huge financial and political cost. In addition all the mood music so far suggests that none of them are likely because of the various strands of opposition they would have, and because of the present timeframe.

So.

Stay in the customs union suggests that what can be done is not to have brexit after all. The political fall out from that would be immense, but if this is not an option to abandon at least one strand of brexit altogether then what would it be?
A customs union implies free movement of people and goods between the UK and the EU, with all of the attendant laws, rules, costs and whatever. Much as exists now. It is surely a no change no brexit option. I can't see that working when brexiters continually repeat that brexit must happen because it is the will of the people.

Impose a hard border. This goes against what everybody has been saying they will do, and goes against the Belfast Agreement. because of that there would be political fall out of a fundamental kind. Indeed you use the word 'impose'. The resource requirements of practically monitoring the border would be huge, and the imposition would probably mean the border would leak like a sieve anyway. There are more crossing points on the Irish border than between the whole of the EU and it's neighbouring countries to the East. The resource infrastructure needed to keep the Irish Border hard would be eye watering, but you are right that it could be done nevertheless. I don't think it will happen and anyway the brexit victors keep telling us it won't.

Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by keeping NI alone in the customs union, is also something that could be 'done', but again at what cost? The subsequent break up of the UK would mean that the UK brexit voters wanted couldn't even happen. democracy would be ignored and sovereignty lost. Constituent countries, Scotland and Wales, may want the same deal as Northern Ireland in the unlikely event of a sea border happening, which might leave brexit only applying to England, therefore no brexit.
I need not go into the political costs, where the DUP and others want the same arrangements as England and the rest, and where Theresa May says she wouldn't ever do it. Some of the social costs risk being quite sinister ones, like they would in your fourth option. I don't see it happening because it wouldn't be the brexit the whole of the UK voted for.

Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by unifying Ireland. Interesting that this is your third use of the word 'impose' which I don't mention as a criticism, but because the questions arising from the word 'impose' are ones about 'how' and 'by whom', and the nature of the word 'impose' suggests to me that there is assumed resistance to impositions.
It would probably need a comprehensive knowledge of the history of Ireland in order to come to terms with some force somewhere somehow imposing a united Ireland, and creating one state on that one land mass and making it a workable reality. In doability terms it would take a majority on both sides of the border to vote for it if the Belfast Agreement is to be respected, and imposition wasn't to happen. The timeframe would be impossible before brexit, and the run up to such an imposition or offering would be seriously fraught with rather cosmic vituperation flying around. Then there is the sinister aspect where people of violence could not be persuaded to accept such a situation if it were imposed.

One option you didn't mention is doing nothing and after brexit everybody makes it all up as they go along, and any restrictions are haphazard or informal. In this kind of scenario I imagine the EU might step in and manage the border somehow, but manage it in a WTO sense, and the people would have to live with the political fall out. Incidentally, people sometimes talk of an unelected and undemocratic EU, but the World Trade Organisation is not an elected body as far as I can tell.

Lined up alongside everything I have said above is what we have at the moment. Rapprochement, and peaceful co existence where the border is more a quaint curiosity than a line of division, and that is what brexit seems to be prepared to sacrifice.

Of the 'doable' options you have listed, have any of them been put forward by brexiters as their solution?

Finally I have not asked for any kind of veto. In an ideal world brexiters would have thought all this stuff through before the vote, and would be now telling us what will happen in order to maintain the peaceful and untroubled situation we have enjoyed on the Irish border for several decades.

So far, despite options you or I or others might suggest, brexiters have come up with nothing. I don't apologise for asking the questions because like those interested in the weather forecast, I want to know which way the wind is blowing.
 
billbond said:
little Englander aspect of thing

See this is what annoys people, these little digs and silly labels
I think Dianne Abbott is THEE worst Mp ever, not because shes black or a women or Labour, its because she is a awful human being and incompetent .
And many many people i talk to think the same.
But your type just lazily shout out sexist,Racist and all the other crap lazy labels
You can still go to italy and eat pizza, go to france and eat frogs legs and all the other lovely food they have.
Visit Germany and see the sites and eat sausage.
Visit Holland and the "delights" it has to offer. Spain for the sun etc etc etc
Nothing has changed, you are not banned from going to these places, they wont shoot you or take your Passport away
Its just all bollox, tbh ive traveled all over and ive never thought of myself as European anyway
im English-British. Not something ive ever thought deep about in my life tbh
All this flag waving and fake love for the EU i find cringey and embarrasing .
I will say this thou, this country will never ever be the same again imho, as i always felt deep down there was a section of people in this country who with this vote have shown they think they are better than others
And this vote has brought all this out.
I was correct in thinking this 100% it seems.
All this nasty aggressive stuff "gammon heads", "Thick northerners", Wishing death on their elders, all these celebs coming out with their crap and winding people up, its been awful
Click to expand...

When you say 'your type' are you saying that this diatribe is a description of me?
If you are, you're wrong.
 
sealion said:
Who is them ? On here ? the real world ? You must know people that voted leave, ask them.
Click to expand...
Ask them for a solution to the Irish Border? I have asked and I do ask, and even with the help of suggestions like those provided by kabbes none of them have come up with an answer.
 
philosophical said:
I have not said I am 'owed' an answer, but I do seek to know what the answer is. It is a bit like the weather forecast, you can't do anything about what is to come, but you can be prepared for it. Ultimately you have to endure it.

You say these options can be made to 'work' in practice, but I wonder how the concept of it 'working' will be measured.

For the sake of what I say about them I am assuming that there are four main planks of what brexit is supposed to be, but feel free to tell me that brexit wasn't or isn't about any of them.

The four bits as I understand it are:

1. For the UK to be unrestricted in sorting out deals with anybody it likes.
2. To control and reduce immigration.
3. To control it's borders in terms of both people and goods.
4. To have some kind of 'in house' sovereignty and democracy, with particular emphasis on laws, rules and regulations.

I recognise the four things you have suggested could be done somehow, but I see them as either conflicting with the aims of what brexit is supposed to be, or carrying a huge financial and political cost. In addition all the mood music so far suggests that none of them are likely because of the various strands of opposition they would have, and because of the present timeframe.

So.

Stay in the customs union suggests that what can be done is not to have brexit after all. The political fall out from that would be immense, but if this is not an option to abandon at least one strand of brexit altogether then what would it be?
A customs union implies free movement of people and goods between the UK and the EU, with all of the attendant laws, rules, costs and whatever. Much as exists now. It is surely a no change no brexit option. I can't see that working when brexiters continually repeat that brexit must happen because it is the will of the people.

Impose a hard border. This goes against what everybody has been saying they will do, and goes against the Belfast Agreement. because of that there would be political fall out of a fundamental kind. Indeed you use the word 'impose'. The resource requirements of practically monitoring the border would be huge, and the imposition would probably mean the border would leak like a sieve anyway. There are more crossing points on the Irish border than between the whole of the EU and it's neighbouring countries to the East. The resource infrastructure needed to keep the Irish Border hard would be eye watering, but you are right that it could be done nevertheless. I don't think it will happen and anyway the brexit victors keep telling us it won't.

Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by keeping NI alone in the customs union, is also something that could be 'done', but again at what cost? The subsequent break up of the UK would mean that the UK brexit voters wanted couldn't even happen. democracy would be ignored and sovereignty lost. Constituent countries, Scotland and Wales, may want the same deal as Northern Ireland in the unlikely event of a sea border happening, which might leave brexit only applying to England, therefore no brexit.
I need not go into the political costs, where the DUP and others want the same arrangements as England and the rest, and where Theresa May says she wouldn't ever do it. Some of the social costs risk being quite sinister ones, like they would in your fourth option. I don't see it happening because it wouldn't be the brexit the whole of the UK voted for.

Impose a hard border between the island of Ireland and Britain by unifying Ireland. Interesting that this is your third use of the word 'impose' which I don't mention as a criticism, but because the questions arising from the word 'impose' are ones about 'how' and 'by whom', and the nature of the word 'impose' suggests to me that there is assumed resistance to impositions.
It would probably need a comprehensive knowledge of the history of Ireland in order to come to terms with some force somewhere somehow imposing a united Ireland, and creating one state on that one land mass and making it a workable reality. In doability terms it would take a majority on both sides of the border to vote for it if the Belfast Agreement is to be respected, and imposition wasn't to happen. The timeframe would be impossible before brexit, and the run up to such an imposition or offering would be seriously fraught with rather cosmic vituperation flying around. Then there is the sinister aspect where people of violence could not be persuaded to accept such a situation if it were imposed.

One option you didn't mention is doing nothing and after brexit everybody makes it all up as they go along, and any restrictions are haphazard or informal. In this kind of scenario I imagine the EU might step in and manage the border somehow, but manage it in a WTO sense, and the people would have to live with the political fall out. Incidentally, people sometimes talk of an unelected and undemocratic EU, but the World Trade Organisation is not an elected body as far as I can tell.

Lined up alongside everything I have said above is what we have at the moment. Rapprochement, and peaceful co existence where the border is more a quaint curiosity than a line of division, and that is what brexit seems to be prepared to sacrifice.

Of the 'doable' options you have listed, have any of them been put forward by brexiters as their solution?

Finally I have not asked for any kind of veto. In an ideal world brexiters would have thought all this stuff through before the vote, and would be now telling us what will happen in order to maintain the peaceful and untroubled situation we have enjoyed on the Irish border for several decades.

So far, despite options you or I or others might suggest, brexiters have come up with nothing. I don't apologise for asking the questions because like those interested in the weather forecast, I want to know which way the wind is blowing.
Click to expand...

Is it fun, what are you getting out of this?
 
SpookyFrank said:
Just popped in to see if this thread has stopped being shit.

I'll give it another week shall I?
Click to expand...
I dunno we could talk about the picture the guardian used of arlene foster in todays paper. they've captured a shot that seems to define gloaty glee. And the gist is the DUP recon they're absolutely prepared to tank the government over the border issue, I believe it as well. Still, we'll see what happens. All remains in flux.
 
I still believe that brexit won't happen, it was never supposed to. The unelected house of lords will veto every proposal put in front of them.
 
I wonder if the 80k a year eu pension that the lords get, impact on the decision making and vetos.
 
sealion said:
I still believe that brexit won't happen, it was never supposed to. The unelected house of lords will veto every proposal put in front of them.
Click to expand...
Ive never quite understood the powers of the Lords, but I dont think they really have a veto in any meaningful way. Hard to keep up but last I remember the House of Commons now will have a final vote (basically veto) over the final deal.
 
ska invita said:
Ive never quite understood the powers of the Lords, but I dont think they really have a veto in any meaningful way. Hard to keep up but last I remember the House of Commons now will have a final vote (basically veto) over the final deal.
Click to expand...

They've not had a veto since the Parliament Act in 1911, but they can make the passage of a Bill troublesome for the government. This is a bit uncharted territory though - the Tories have pretty much always had a majority in the Lords, but that's not the case at the moment, and quite a lot of Tory peers have serious misgivings about the Brexit process anyway. One of the major amendments passed today was initiated by Viscount Hogg, of taxpayer-funded moat-cleaning fame, for example.
 
ska invita said:
Ive never quite understood the powers of the Lords, but I dont think they really have a veto in any meaningful way. Hard to keep up but last I remember the House of Commons now will have a final vote (basically veto) over the final deal.
Click to expand...

Although with the amount of brexit-related stuff that needs to be hammered out before next March it's looking likely that parliament's 'meaningful vote' will happen before anyone knows what it is they're voting on.
 
To add: the Lords won't oppose a Bill of Supply (the Budget, basically), or something that was a clear mandated manifesto commitment by the government of the day. Thing is, the government did not really secure a mandate for its manifesto in 2017, and lots of the stuff in the EU Withdrawal Bill didn't appear in it anyway, so their Lordships seem to feel that their role as a revising chamber is relatively unconstrained here.
 
ska invita said:
Ive never quite understood the powers of the Lords, but I dont think they really have a veto in any meaningful way. Hard to keep up but last I remember the House of Commons now will have a final vote (basically veto) over the final deal.
Click to expand...
I think I read somewhere that although the commons can use the Parliament Act to override the lords, they don't actually have enough time before Brexit Day to go through the motions.
 
ska invita said:
Ive never quite understood the powers of the Lords, but I dont think they really have a veto in any meaningful way. Hard to keep up but last I remember the House of Commons now will have a final vote (basically veto) over the final deal.
Click to expand...

The current agreed position is that the Commons gets a vote to approve the negotiated deal - no matter what cobbled together load of shite it is -or "No deal", as in crashing out in the hardest Brexity way possible. Today's Lords activity is attempting to give the Commons a bit more flexibility than that. (I think, this stuff makes my head hurt after a while)
 
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