Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[sealion]

Although with the amount of brexit-related stuff that needs to be hammered out before next March it's looking likely that parliament's 'meaningful vote' will happen before anyone knows what it is they're voting on.

Just been defeated
Government defeated on Brexit deal vote

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I think I read somewhere that although the commons can use the Parliament Act to override the lords, they don't actually have enough time before Brexit Day to go through the motions.

The government made the current parliamentary session two years long instead of the usual one to try and avoid this, but it's still not going to be long enough, looks like.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

As previously stated, Brexit will happen, the UK will leave the EU.

What that looks like when it’s done is anyone’s guess, but we need to remember why the referendum was called in the first place. Having come this far the vermin will see it through and it will have to be done in such as way as to placate both sides of their stinking party. That is their overriding concern.

 

[ska invita]

The current agreed position is that the Commons gets a vote to approve the negotiated deal - no matter what cobbled together load of shite it is -or "No deal", as in crashing out in the hardest Brexity way possible. Today's Lords activity is attempting to give the Commons a bit more flexibility than that. (I think, this stuff makes my head hurt after a while)

I thought the crash out no deal is off the cards...if Commons votes no then negotiations must continue.

W
(Whatever)

 

[bemused]

I thought the crash out no deal is off the cards...if Commons votes no then negotiations must continue.

I'm not sure that is true. Isn't the EU's position that we're out at the end of the article 50 term unless we decide it's all be a terrible mistake.

I wouldn't be surprised if the deal doesn't go to another referendum.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I thought the crash out no deal is off the cards...if Commons votes no then negotiations must continue.

No, I don't think that's the case. The Commons -as it stands right now - gets to approve the negotiated deal, or literally no deal at all with the EU. One of today's Lords amendments is attempting to give back more flexibility to the Commons so that that isn't the only choice.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I'm not sure that is true. Isn't the EU's position that we're out at the end of the article 50 term unless we decide it's all be a terrible mistake.

It's not the "EU's position" - it's the necessary operation of the law once May invoked article 50, which was the approved by both the Tories and Labour.

 

[bemused]

It's not the "EU's position" - it's the necessary operation of the law once May invoked article 50, which was the approved by both the Tories and Labour.

The European Council can extend the term.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

The European Council can extend the term.

Yes, that's an option, but it would need the British government to initiate that. It seems likely it's also possible to withdraw the A50 invocation altogether, or to indefinitely extend a transition agreement which means membership in all but name.

What's politically possible, I dunno really. It does seem however that the govt still has ministers in charge of the process who don't have any kind of handle on the complexities of the situation. What, it's nearly two years since the referendum and there's no clear end-state agreed? Fuck them all, and fuck Labour too.

 

[bemused]

YWhat's politically possible, I dunno really. It does seem however that the govt still has ministers in charge of the process who don't have any kind of handle on the complexities of the situation. What, it's nearly two years since the referendum and there's no clear end-state agreed? Fuck them all, and fuck Labour too.

In hindsight would any government of any party be able to unpick the relationship with the EU, determine a viable exit plan and pull it off - I doubt it. I use to think the ghost of UKIP was stopping the Labour Party suggesting a final out vote, but I think it's more likely that no one wants to run another referendum.

 

[Crispy]

I wouldn't be surprised if the deal doesn't go to another referendum.

They'd need to decide that well in advance. You can't just run a nation-wide vote on a whim. Takes time to organise.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

In hindsight would any government of any party be able to unpick the relationship with the EU, determine a viable exit plan and pull it off - I doubt it.

I doubt it too. The only way to have done it would have been a massive scoping exercise prior to A50 invocation, with a consensus view of what the future relationship would look like, but that's not what happened.

 

[Slo-mo]

They'd need to decide that well in advance. You can't just run a nation-wide vote on a whim. Takes time to organise.

I'd have no problem with a second referendum on the deal provided it was clearly agreed with Remainers in advance that that is it.

Final and binding.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I'd have no problem with a second referendum on the deal provided it was clearly agreed with Remainers in advance that that is it.

I still don't quite see how a second referendum would work. The views could be any one of

a) no, deal is not 'hard brexit' enough, do a different deal

b) yes, it's fine, get on with it (or yes, get on with it and shut the heck up)

c) no, deal is not 'soft brexit' enough, do a different deal

d) no, we should not leave EU, do not accept any deal

not sure it would be easy to get that on a ballot paper

 

[Slo-mo]

Fair point. Potentially you could do a multi way vote with AV but that would be confusing..

 

[toblerone3]

As previously stated, Brexit will happen, the UK will leave the EU.

What that looks like when it’s done is anyone’s guess, but we need to remember why the referendum was called in the first place. Having come this far the vermin will see it through and it will have to be done in such as way as to placate both sides of their stinking party. That is their overriding concern.

Just as you believe that Brexit will happen, I believe that it is possible that it will unravel. Just as you have only a vague notion of how Brexit can be pushed through, I have little idea of exactly how it will run out steam. But I think it possible that it might. Even if the Irish border issue is sorted out (and that is a very big issue) there is the vexed issues of London and Scotland. Popular opposition to Brexit is more powerful than ever.

 

[Raheem]

I still don't quite see how a second referendum would work. The views could be any one of

a) no, deal is not 'hard brexit' enough, do a different deal

b) yes, it's fine, get on with it (or yes, get on with it and shut the heck up)

c) no, deal is not 'soft brexit' enough, do a different deal

d) no, we should not leave EU, do not accept any deal

not sure it would be easy to get that on a ballot paper

If there's a second referendum, the wording is going to depend on the context. It will probably be along the lines "Do you accept the proposal put forward by the Government/the EU, or would you rather not given that, let's face it, it's shit and everyone agrees it's shit." You could also have a referendum where the result makes Brexit impossible for practical purposes (e.g. "Do you support the creation of a customs border along the Irish Sea?").

The referendum that got us here could also conceivably have been done with a long list of options, but it wasn't just because it didn't have to be.

 

[Slo-mo]

We are on page 250 so this may well have already been mentioned but there is an EU election due in May 2019. We really need to be in or out by then....

 

[Raheem]

We are on page 250 so this may well have already been mentioned but there is an EU election due in May 2019. We really need to be in or out by then....

We'll be in or out by then. I feel sure of it.

 

[Slo-mo]

We'll be in or out by then. I feel sure of it.

I think we need to be. And if we are having a second referendum it really needs to be before that.

 

[andysays]

We are on page 250 so this may well have already been mentioned but there is an EU election due in May 2019. We really need to be in or out by then....

No "shake it all about" option?

 

[SpookyFrank]

You could also have a referendum where the result makes Brexit impossible for practical purposes

From where I'm standing we've already got one of those.

 

[DotCommunist]

might as well go here altough its mainly for the blokes name, Lord Cashman. nominative etc

His fellow Labour peer Lord Cashman said it was essential to look at a solution that would allow membership of the EEA, as it would not only be good for UK business but also solve the Irish problem which is now threatening to torpedo a Brexit deal. “Why the frontbench will not accept that as a negotiating position I completely fail to understand.”

I'd have changed it by deed poll

 

[butchersapron]

might as well go here altough its mainly for the blokes name, Lord Cashman. nominative etc



I'd have changed it by deed poll

Oh the youth.

 

[The39thStep]

Remainers should be wearing these sun glasses in solidarity ,also available in rose tint

 

[Raheem]

View attachment 134586 Remainers should be wearing these sun glasses in solidarity ,also available in rose tint

And a Union Jack monocle version for leavers.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

The Foreign Secretary is on the front page of the Daily Heil today calling May’s Customs Union like arrangement plan “crazy”. How does he get away with it? (He may or may not be right on the craziness or otherwise of Theresa May’s plans, but how can the Cabinet work when some members think others ideas on their key work of the moment are “crazy”?)

 

[pocketscience]

The Foreign Secretary is on the front page of the Daily Heil today calling May’s Customs Union like arrangement plan “crazy”. How does he get away with it? (He may or may not be right on the craziness or otherwise of Theresa May’s plans, but how can the Cabinet work when some members think others ideas on their key work of the moment are “crazy”?)

Good cop - bad cop vs the Eu innit

 

[cupid_stunt]

Good cop - bad cop vs the Eu innit

That and perhaps he's considered less dangerous inside the cabinet rather than outside.

 

[danny la rouge]

might as well go here altough its mainly for the blokes name, Lord Cashman. nominative etc



I'd have changed it by deed poll

Do Colin and Barry mean nothing to anyone any more?