Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[teuchter]

What does that have to do with the issue of the Irish border?

Most people who voted Leave won't be judging whether Brexit is genuine or in name only by what happens to the Irish border

The practicalities of what happens to the Irish border have an impact on what type of Brexit we can have, whether or not your head is in the sand.

 

[Winot]

What does that have to do with the issue of the Irish border?

Most people who voted Leave won't be judging whether Brexit is genuine or in name only by what happens to the Irish border

Agreed, but the Irish border issue could mean that we stay in the Customs Union (and maybe the SM). Would you be happy with that?

 

[andysays]

Agreed, but the Irish border issue could mean that we stay in the Customs Union (and maybe the SM). Would you be happy with that?

I don't actually agree with your premise here. If Britain does stay in the CU or the SM, how will we know whether this is because of the Irish border issue?

 

[agricola]

I'd be willing to bet that this was originally a speech written for her as part of the Remain campaign, then quickly re-written to add the necessary Brexit language. We are already members of nearly all the organizations and practices she has cited.

 

[stethoscope]

UK will refuse to enforce hard Irish border with EU even in 'no deal' Brexit, says cabinet minister

Britain would refuse to enforce any new border in Ireland even if there is a ‘no deal’ Brexit, a Cabinet minister has told The Independent.

The minister said it would be “impossible” to put a hard border in place simply because the area needing to be enforced is too great.

With the EU saying this week that a border is the only option if Britain refuses to stay aligned with European customs and regulation, the minister added: “If they want to put up a border, let them try.”

The Cabinet minister told The Independent: “It's impossible to put a border in place between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

“You cannot put up enough fences. It was the same in the 70s – we could never stop terrorists coming across it. Even if there is no deal, I can see no reason why we would try to enforce the border.”

Theresa May’s approach to Brexit has seen her insist the UK can leave the EU and its customs union while also keeping the border in Ireland all but open – something which is seen by many as critical to peace in the region.

But earlier this week the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier published a draft withdrawal agreement text, which proposes a "common regulatory area" across Ireland if other solutions to avoid a hard border fail.

Whilst the Tories can fuck off and it could be bargaining bluff and fluff, even they seem to be advocating a more radical approach to this than most liberals and the EU who are the ones demanding that there will have to be a border if Britain comes out of the SM/CU.

 

[Winot]

I don't actually agree with your premise here. If Britain does stay in the CU or the SM, how will we know whether this is because of the Irish border issue?

Well we won't know for sure. But what we do know is that the Tories want to leave the CU and the SM and that causes problems in IE/NI.

Also, Labour deciding to stay in CU likely to have been influenced by IE/NI - and could lead to government losing vote in Commons.

 

[DexterTCN]

What does that have to do with the issue of the Irish border?

Most people who voted Leave won't be judging whether Brexit is genuine or in name only by what happens to the Irish border

It's not an Irish border, it's a UK border. And that would break the GFA...everyone knows where that could end.

May gave guarantees on this last year but now can't keep to them because she's weak against the tory right-wingers. Davis said in the absence of any better deal NI would stay in the customs union after brexit. Internal fighting means May wants that off the table.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well we won't know for sure. But what we do know is that the Tories want to leave the CU and the SM and that causes problems in IE/NI.

Also, Labour deciding to stay in CU likely to have been influenced by IE/NI - and could lead to government losing vote in Commons.

you know opinion in the tory party divided, right?

perhaps the government wants to leave the cu & sm, doesn't mean the tories want to. do you think anna soubry and ken clark hanker for leaving the cu & sm?

 

[stethoscope]

Nothing like the austerity-enabling now ousted Clegg telling us how we won't be in the 'driving seat' anymore.

 

[andysays]

It's not an Irish border, it's a UK border. And that would break the GFA...everyone knows where that could end.

May gave guarantees on this last year but now can't keep to them because she's weak against the tory right-wingers. Davis said in the absence of any better deal NI would stay in the customs union after brexit. Internal fighting means May wants that off the table.

Strictly speaking it's the UK/Eire border, but I'm pretty sure we all know which border is being referred to here.

The GFA wasn't handed down from above on tablets of stone. It, like every other agreement, is capable of revision or even of being done away with if circumstances or political realities change.

The whole implication that Britain leaving the EU will lead to a resumption of terrorist violence in NI and that British Leave voters will somehow be responsible for that is a load of old nonsense, but it's no surprise to see you and others continue to suggest this.

And I'm quite happy to see the continued Tory infighting around various Brexit issues - it far exceeds my hopes when I voted Leave back in June 2016

 

[teuchter]

The whole implication that Britain leaving the EU will lead to a resumption of terrorist violence in NI and that British Leave voters will somehow be responsible for that is a load of old nonsense,

If Britain leaving the EU leads to a socialist revolution and subsequently established utopia will Leave voters deny any responsibility/credit for that too?

Or, from the spectrum of possible political outcomes do you get to cherry pick which ones are "consequences" of the Brexit decision?

You appear happy to consider the vote a cause of Tory infighting for example.

 

[teuchter]

The GFA wasn't handed down from above on tablets of stone. It, like every other agreement, is capable of revision or even of being done away with if circumstances or political realities change.

Like the Brexit referendum result?

Brexit means brexit. GFA means GFA until it's inconvenient.

 

[stethoscope]

What?!

 

[andysays]

If Britain leaving the EU leads to a socialist revolution and subsequently established utopia will Leave voters deny any responsibility/credit for that too?

Or, from the spectrum of possible political outcomes do you get to cherry pick which ones are "consequences" of the Brexit decision?

You appear happy to consider the vote a cause of Tory infighting for example.

At least some of the current Tory infighting clearly is a result of the Leave vote, and I'm on record here (somewhere) of saying before the referendum that was a large part of why I voted Leave.

I'll go on record here and now that I don't think Britain leaving the EU will, in itself, lead to a socialist revolution and subsequently established utopia, anymore than it will, in itself, lead to the resumption of terrorist violence in NI.

 

[andysays]

Like the Brexit referendum result?

Brexit means brexit. GFA means GFA until it's inconvenient.

The result of the referendum (that a majority of people voted Leave) can't be changed, but of course it is possible that the British government may, in the end, decide not to follow through with the result of that referendum.

It's also possible that Britain may leave the EU and decide at a later date to rejoin, though I think that's pretty unlikely.

Again, by quoting 'Brexit means Brexit' at me, you appear to assume that I have adopted a position which I never have.

 

[teuchter]

What's the position that you haven't adopted?

 

[andysays]

What's the position that you haven't adopted?

The one which you attributed to me and which I quoted in the post you've just responded to

Like the Brexit referendum result?

Brexit means brexit. GFA means GFA until it's inconvenient.

I never said either of those things. Nor did I say anything which justifies this

I'm saying that you can't ignore the fact that it will have effects on others. If your position is that you don't care about the consequences for Eire or for Northern Ireland then fair enough, that's your position, but state that clearly rather than taking the "nothing to do with me guvnor" stance.

or this

You'll still complain when someone else can't come up with one for you, though.

You seem to be struggling to keep up with what you yourself have said, far less what anyone else has said, which doesn't make for a very productive discussion.

Unless you can raise your game a little, I'm not sure there's much point in my continuing to engage with you

 

[toblerone3]

View attachment 129051

So fucking what... this is tedious nit-picking ... plenty of UKIP-like tory MPs in the right-wing of the party. Indeed, its almost as though UKIP has taken over the Tory party. This doesn't dilute in the slightest my substantive point that you're making common cause with the right. Why are you posting up this irrelevant material.

 

[teuchter]

The one which you attributed to me and which I quoted in the post you've just responded to

I never said either of those things. Nor did I say anything which justifies this

or this

You seem to be struggling to keep up with what you yourself have said, far less what anyone else has said, which doesn't make for a very productive discussion.

Unless you can raise your game a little, I'm not sure there's much point in my continuing to engage with you

In one instance you're misreading "you" as talking about you rather than in the sense of "one" which is why you've got confused.

I'm saying that one can't ignore the fact that it will have effects on others. If one's position is that one doesn't care about the consequences for Eire or for Northern Ireland then fair enough, that's one's position, but state that clearly rather than taking the "nothing to do with me guvnor" stance.

It's not all about you. However, if instead of getting indignant you could just state what your position is, then there would be less room for misunderstanding and assumption. You objected to the idea that you might associate with the "Brexit is Brexit" line. Why? That seems surprising for a Leave voter.

 

[DexterTCN]

...The GFA wasn't handed down from above on tablets of stone. It, like every other agreement, is capable of revision or even of being done away with if circumstances or political realities change.

The whole implication that Britain leaving the EU will lead to a resumption of terrorist violence in NI and that British Leave voters will somehow be responsible for that is a load of old nonsense, but it's no surprise to see you and others continue to suggest this....

There's no room for 'revision'.

If one side reneges on an agreement that has kept peace for decades, then yes they are at fault. And worse.

 

[pocketscience]

In one instance you're misreading "you" as talking about you rather than in the sense of "one" which is why you've got confused.

I'm saying that one can't ignore the fact that it will have effects on others. If one's position is that one doesn't care about the consequences for Eire or for Northern Ireland then fair enough, that's one's position, but state that clearly rather than taking the "nothing to do with me guvnor" stance.

I call Bullshit. When you wrote 'That's your position' you were obviously aiming it directly at andysays in the 2nd person 'you'.
'that's ones position...' just sounds fucking weird in that prince charles-like 'one' point of view.

Besides the sneering sign offs on your posts, you put words in peoples mouths time and again. Now you've been rightly pulled up about it, in this case bang to rights, yet it's quite revealing how you disingeneously try to twist it yet again.
I recall dotcommunist pulling you up a short while ago on this very thread for doing a similar. I noticed it in our little spats too.
You have such an underhand way of discussing topics which in my book makes you look dishonest.

 

[Pickman's model]

So fucking what... this is tedious nit-picking ... plenty of UKIP-like tory MPs in the right-wing of the party. Indeed, its almost as though UKIP has taken over the Tory party. This doesn't dilute in the slightest my substantive point that you're making common cause with the right. Why are you posting up this irrelevant material.

It's not irrelevant. I've told you you look a twat with this ukip bollocks. You do your case no favours by this ukip taking over tory party froth either. Your tedious hysterical shrill whine says far more about your stunted politics and inability to comprehend what's been said than about mine or butchersapron's: and none of it good

 

[pocketscience]

There's no room for 'revision'.

If one side reneges on an agreement that has kept peace for decades, then yes they are at fault. And worse.

The Potsdam Agreement of 1945 was superceded by the '2 plus 4 Agreement' of 1990 after German reunification without a WW2 reloaded.
Things change and these agreements get updates...

 

[toblerone3]

And that's going to be achieved by forming an alliance with Pro-remain Tories, LibDems etc in order to reverse any move to leave the EU. This post is the same type of gash that Blair, May and Cameron have been coming out with for the last 20 years - "reskilling", "welfare underclass", maybe we can have a free-trade agreement to with with it eh? Ugh pass the sick bucket.

I've already dealt with the point regarding voting alliances. What kind of purist deluded world are you living in? In your second sentence here you don't seem to like the word "reskilling". What is wrong with it do you think that once somebody starts working in one job there should just be smooth transition in their career and that people should never have to even consider retraining. Aren't you being a bit unrealistic here? When I mentioned the phrase "welfare underclass" I was just mentioning it as a potential danger/argument against creating a generous welfare state perhaps involving a BIS and one that shouldn't prevent the funding of a proper welfare system. You don't seem to have your brain switched on. You just here a phrase that you might have heard spoken by a politician that you didn't like and think that anybody who uses that phrases ever again is making the same argument made by those politicians. Don't just act so viscerally, flip out, vomit and shut down. That is what I mean by you not having your brain switched on.

Yes you do, yes you are. You've specifically said that Labour should ignore the majority leave vote and work with filth like pro-remain Tories and LDs to stay in the EU. You've called anyone who wants a "hard Brexit" (whatever that means) anti-socialist, you've called any position that supports leaving unreasonable, you've called "left-wingers" who supported a leave vote fools.

I specifically said don't ignore the concerns of those who voted Leave, but I still believe that the EU Ref was for many reasons a deeply flawed vote (many others here agree with me on this). I do believe the Leave vote is against the interests of those who want social justice/socialism/whatever in this country. I have called left wingers who supported a Leave vote misguided. That doesn't mean that I'm a bad person or a patronising git.

 

[toblerone3]

It's not irrelevant. I've told you you look a twat with this ukip bollocks. You do your case no favours by this ukip taking over tory party froth either. Your tedious hysterical shrill whine says far more about your stunted politics and inability to comprehend what's been said than about mine or butchersapron's: and none of it good

OK forget I ever said UKIP. I was attacked for advocating making common cause with parties on the left and centre and moderate right of the political spectrum in Westminster, while Lexiters are making common cause with the extreme right. (right wing Tories). I'm sorry that you're finding me tedious and that you find it difficult to put together a coherent argument. What does 'stunted politics' mean anyway. Is it just a way of saying I am right and you are wrong?

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm sorry that you're finding me tedious and that you it difficult to put together a coherent argument

Come back when you can put together a coherent sentence

 

[Pickman's model]

OK forget I ever said UKIP

nah

 

[toblerone3]

Come back when you can put together a coherent sentence

Do you just nit pick and slink around because you don't have anything much to say?

 

[toblerone3]

nah

I don't understand your weird thinking.

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you just nit pick and slink around because you don't have anything much to say?

Right. I'm incoherent because I point out that the ukip you hold up as a *really* big threat are going down the plughole. You say it's like ukip have taken over the Tory party. You think you're coherent, but really you're hysterical. And wrong.