Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[MightyTibberton]

to me the most likely outcome is a humiliating crawling back at some point in the spring of 2019

I reckon No Deal is more likely in current circumstances. A General Election might change everything, but then it might not!

 

[Pickman's model]

Any politician who says it's be easy to leave is a complete moron who should be treated with disdain. They should be voted out if their seats next election due to their stupidity.

I wish anyway

it's easy to leave. what's hard is going to be persuading people that the settlement is in fact leaving rather than remaining under worse terms.

 

[SpookyFrank]

View attachment 123359 View attachment 123360

The red line of regulatory autonomy has already gone thought has it not? And if the ECJ red line hasn't gone yet it soon will when the practicalities of 'regulatory alignment' start to reveal themselves. And when negotations on trade start we'll presumably learn that we'll not get fuck all from anyone without some provision for freedom of movement.

 

[MightyTibberton]

it's easy to leave. what's hard is going to be persuading people that the settlement is in fact leaving rather than remaining under worse terms.

On that thread from the Guardian reporter I posted earlier is a tweet saying that the UK is signatory to 750 international agreements via the EU. We now have to sort all those out. . . No doubt, much of it is very simple, but is all of it?

We should have a Most Extreme Scenario thread:

how about leaving with no trade deal and signing versions of TTIP with anyone who'll let us. Northern Ireland leaving the UK to remain in single market and customs union with the Republic. Scottish IndyRef 2 on the way. . . Erm, war with France!

 

[MightyTibberton]

War with Span over Gibraltar, rather! Boris'll be promising us a colonial administration in Madrid.

 

[Pickman's model]

On that thread from the Guardian reporter I posted earlier is a tweet saying that the UK is signatory to 750 international agreements via the EU. We now have to sort all those out. . . No doubt, much of it is very simple, but is all of it?

We should have a Most Extreme Scenario thread:

how about leaving with no trade deal and signing versions of TTIP with anyone who'll let us. Northern Ireland leaving the UK to remain in single market and customs union with the Republic. Scottish IndyRef 2 on the way. . . Erm, war with France!

 

[SpookyFrank]

to me the most likely outcome is a humiliating crawling back at some point in the spring of 2019

I can't think of any outcome that isn't riddled with plot-holes at this point.

If you accept that everything will be terrible no matter what happens, it all becomes quite fun to watch. The whole thing with the DUP, and the fact that May brought it on herself, is just perfect. If it was happening in a fictional TV show I wouldn't believe it because it's too perfect.

 

[A380]

Remainers absolutely loving Brexit now

 

[Pickman's model]

I can't think of any outcome that isn't riddled with plot-holes at this point.

If you accept that everything will be terrible no matter what happens, it all becomes quite fun to watch. The whole thing with the DUP, and the fact that May brought it on herself, is just perfect. If it was happening in a fictional TV show I wouldn't believe it because it's too perfect.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I can't think of any outcome that isn't riddled with plot-holes at this point.

If you accept that everything will be terrible no matter what happens, it all becomes quite fun to watch. The whole thing with the DUP, and the fact that May brought it on herself, is just perfect. If it was happening in a fictional TV show I wouldn't believe it because it's too perfect.

If it were happening to France we'd be so fucking graceless about the whole thing it would be really unbecoming.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Why the referendum was a terrible idea, in a nutshell.

Yes. It could be argued that the referendum was always going to open up divisions & unleash the beast of racism that lurks in the heart of many of the most urbane folk you could choose to meet. So for that reason alone it should not have been held. It’s like bringing back hanging. Decades ago every time there was a particularly nasty murder particularly terrorist related the tabloids would argue for the return of the death penalty. Opinion polls always said a if referendum was held the voters would be in favour so for that sensible reason no government of the day even entertained it.

 

[Santino]

Christ, what if democracy actually meant enacting the will of the people? I mean, can you imagine?

 

[Winot]

Christ, what if democracy actually meant enacting the will of the people? I mean, can you imagine?

Come on then - what's *your* solution to the Irish border problem?

 

[gosub]

Come on then - what's *your* solution to the Irish border problem?

Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure. To be sure

 

[kebabking]

Come on then - what's *your* solution to the Irish border problem?

are you saying that because the Irish border is a somewhat thorny problem, 60-something million people can't be allowed to decide if they want their country to remain in the EU or not?

 

[Winot]

are you saying that because the Irish border is a somewhat thorny problem, 60-something million people can't be allowed to decide if they want their country to remain in the EU or not?

I’m saying that having a referendum before the ‘thorny problems’ were explored was a massive mistake. The civil service were banned from doing any preparatory work for the biggest political change in the UK for decades. There were other ways to prepare for a referendum if that’s what people wanted, eg a Royal Commission to prepare an options paper.

 

[kebabking]

I’m saying that having a referendum before the ‘thorny problems’ were explored was a massive mistake. The civil service were banned from doing any preparatory work for the biggest political change in the UK for decades. There were other ways to prepare for a referendum if that’s what people wanted, eg a Royal Commission to prepare an options paper.

no, what you're saying that that electorates can only be allowed to have their say on a subject once a series of politically acceptable answers have been divised by whatever political/societal elite happens to be in power - answers that have been screened by that political/social elite to ensure that, most importantly, the priorities of the political/social elite in power are met by whichever option the electorate are allowed to choose.

you're saying that the electorate have no right to do something you consider wrong.

if its not the Irish border it'll be something else, like passporting rights for financial institutions, or free movement rights, or the next thing thats just too complicated for little people to understand.

thats fundamentally why Remain lost the referendum, because it said that this stuff is too complex and too difficult for people to make a black or white decision about, with too much at stake - and the electorate said 'watch me'.

 

[Winot]

You think breaking everything is going to make things better. I think it’s going to make things worse. I guess we’ll have to return to this thread in a few years’ time and see who was right.

 

[teuchter]

I think lots of stuff is too complex and difficult to make a black or white decision about. In fact, that's pretty much life: stuff that's too complex and difficult to make black or white decisions about. Is this now a controversial position?

 

[gosub]

Thats why we invented 'duvet days'

 

[kebabking]

You think breaking everything is going to make things better. I think it’s going to make things worse. I guess we’ll have to return to this thread in a few years’ time and see who was right.

i voted remain - and the reason remain lost, and your posts attract such distain, is not whether brexit will make this or that better, but whether the electorate has the right to make decisions that fall outside the 'this is generally considered a good idea' bucket.

when marriages fall apart the circumstances - children, residual feelings, joint assets, pensions etc.. make it far too complex for black or white decisions, yet we make those decisions anyway, we accept the downsides of those decisions and we just get on with it. your position is that people don't have the right to end their marriages because the divorce and life afterwards is just too messy and compromised, and they will just have to live with their unhappiness for the sake of the house, the pensions, the children and the PCP on the Audi on the drive.

not so.

 

[Santino]

.

 

[Santino]

Come on then - what's *your* solution to the Irish border problem?

To ignore people's interests and politically expressed desires. What's yours?

 

[B.I.G]

i voted remain - and the reason remain lost, and your posts attract such distain, is not whether brexit will make this or that better, but whether the electorate has the right to make decisions that fall outside the 'this is generally considered a good idea' bucket.

when marriages fall apart the circumstances - children, residual feelings, joint assets, pensions etc.. make it far too complex for black or white decisions, yet we make those decisions anyway, we accept the downsides of those decisions and we just get on with it. your position is that people don't have the right to end their marriages because the divorce and life afterwards is just too messy and compromised, and they will just have to live with their unhappiness for the sake of the house, the pensions, the children and the PCP on the Audi on the drive.

not so.

The same people have the right to remarry.

 

[teuchter]

i voted remain - and the reason remain lost, and your posts attract such distain, is not whether brexit will make this or that better, but whether the electorate has the right to make decisions that fall outside the 'this is generally considered a good idea' bucket.

when marriages fall apart the circumstances - children, residual feelings, joint assets, pensions etc.. make it far too complex for black or white decisions, yet we make those decisions anyway, we accept the downsides of those decisions and we just get on with it. your position is that people don't have the right to end their marriages because the divorce and life afterwards is just too messy and compromised, and they will just have to live with their unhappiness for the sake of the house, the pensions, the children and the PCP on the Audi on the drive.

not so.

That's quite a bizarre interpretation of Winot's "position" as far as I can see.

 

[pocketscience]

That’s probably my view. Don’t particularly like the EU but wonder if leaving is worth the effort & will it achieve anything? Something along the lines of better being inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in. Possibly. Caller to LBC yesterday hit nail on head. “Leavers(the ones that call radio phone in shows anyway)only want to leave. They don’t want to know about trade deals or the Irish border”.

tbf we've been out side the tent and pissing in for a good few years now.
To follow on wit your analogy, post-brexit's probably more akin to not having a tent and pissing where you like.

 

[Winot]

To ignore people's interests and politically expressed desires. What's yours?

Thanks Yoda

 

[Raheem]

To follow on wit your analogy, post-brexit's probably more akin to not having a tent and pissing where you like.

I got some really mardy looks for that at Glastonbury. 1992, I think.

 

[Winot]

i voted remain - and the reason remain lost, and your posts attract such distain, is not whether brexit will make this or that better, but whether the electorate has the right to make decisions that fall outside the 'this is generally considered a good idea' bucket.

when marriages fall apart the circumstances - children, residual feelings, joint assets, pensions etc.. make it far too complex for black or white decisions, yet we make those decisions anyway, we accept the downsides of those decisions and we just get on with it. your position is that people don't have the right to end their marriages because the divorce and life afterwards is just too messy and compromised, and they will just have to live with their unhappiness for the sake of the house, the pensions, the children and the PCP on the Audi on the drive.

not so.

If I was going to get divorced I’d quite like it if someone explained the consequences to me so that I could make an informed decision.

 

[RD2003]

If I was going to get divorced I’d quite like it if someone explained the consequences to me so that I could make an informed decision.

Maybe just go fort it instead, and see what happens.

Life is an adventure...