Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Gaia]

I'm pleased to note that the finest traditions of British irony are being upheld and that Gina Miller's QC is Lord David Pannick.

 

[Flavour]

Time for an elected judiciary.

This could be a great wedge. No, i'm too stupid to elect them etc me, not anyone else, they're all great and i trust them and their capabilities. I really do just mean me.

forgive me but haven't caught your meaning: who is the voice in italics?

 

[butchersapron]

The defenders of democracy. One minute shouting about legislative supremacy then cheering it getting knocked off. You know, just them.

 

[Flavour]

Yes unfortunately most of them have so little contact with people outside their bubble that they react with bemusement and "you're just playing the role of the funny, ironic brit at the party" when confronted with alternative analyses. and I meet a lot of them. the EU-loving liberal intelligentsia across Europe are very similar to the radical remainers in the UK itself I find. another example of class being more important than nationality in forming worldview.

 

[Wilf]

I'm pleased to note that the finest traditions of British irony are being upheld and that Gina Miller's QC is Lord David Pannick.

... and where will M'Lord Pannick be, the very moment he steps out of the Supreme Court?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Here is further detailed academic research indicating neoliberalism as the key motivating factor propelling the working class leave vote. This article builds on the growing body of work - cited in the journal article - suggesting that working class leave voters cite a lack of political representation, neoliberal economy, lost futures and deindustrialisation is the central narrative that explains motivating factors.

Labour’s political collapse rightwards, away from a ‘People’s Brexit’ in 2017 through a variety of positions to 2019 a second vote with a choice of remain or a deal offered by an EU that has no motives whatsoever for offering a real one will be a disaster in areas like Teeside:

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals


The three key findings:

• Focusing on neoliberal effects on working-class life over the last 40 years provides an important explanatory framework for the vote;
  
  
• (b) The Labour Party’s abandonment of the working class appears to be a principal reason why these people voted to leave;
  
  
• (c) The EU referendum offered a unique opportunity for working-class people to voice their dissatisfaction with the dominant social, cultural and political hegemon in contemporary England.
  

 

[brogdale]

Here is further detailed academic research indicating neoliberalism as the key motivating factor propelling the working class leave vote. This article builds on the growing body of work - cited in the journal article - suggesting that working class leave voters cite a lack of political representation, neoliberal economy, lost futures and deindustrialisation is the central narrative that explains motivating factors.

Labour’s political collapse rightwards, away from a ‘People’s Brexit’ in 2017 through a variety of positions to 2019 a second vote with a choice of remain or a deal offered by an EU that has no motives whatsoever for offering a real one will be a disaster in areas like Teeside:

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals


The three key findings:

• Focusing on neoliberal effects on working-class life over the last 40 years provides an important explanatory framework for the vote;
  
  
• (b) The Labour Party’s abandonment of the working class appears to be a principal reason why these people voted to leave;
  
  
• (c) The EU referendum offered a unique opportunity for working-class people to voice their dissatisfaction with the dominant social, cultural and political hegemon in contemporary England.

When liberals say...but things will get worse for you dullards.

 

[belboid]

Some interesting reading, but their methodology looks like bullshit.

Interviewed 27 people, eight from one working mans club and the rest their acquaintances (that's what 'snowball sampling' is). 20 men, seven women. All over 45 (or so they initially say. Later on they say one of them women is 42. Such inconsistency is poor for an academic paper). All white. It's not exactly a representative sample of anything, is it?

It's good the piece recognises that almost a third of their selectorate was motivated by fears around immigration (cant tell whether all eight were 'hostile and racist' - I'd presume not, or they couldn't be described as a small minority) and the usual blather about people getting 'something for nothing.' But it's never expanded upon. The authors seems to simply subsume that argument under more specific objections to neo-liberalism and how that has destroyed notions of community and belonging.

And that may well be true (cant say for sure without seeing rather more of the actual comments), but simply saying 'it's all neo-liberalism' without countering the racist aspect means that racism will go unchallenged and will be an open door for the right. There isn't a single narrative we can impose on the referendum result without missing other key factors that also need addressing. This piece has some value in doing that, but still looks to have a lot of shortcomings.

 

[teuchter]

Some interesting reading, but their methodology looks like bullshit.

Interviewed 27 people, eight from one working mans club and the rest the authors acquaintances (that's what 'snowball sampling' is). 20 men, seven women. All over 45 (or so they initially say. Later on they say one of them women is 42. Such inconsistency is poor for an academic paper). All white. It's not exactly a representative sample of anything, is it?

It's good the piece recognises that almost a third of their selectorate was motivated by fears around immigration (cant tell whether all eight were 'hostile and racist' - I'd presume not, or they couldn't be described as a small minority) and the usual blather about people getting 'something for nothing.' But it's never expanded upon. The authors seems to simply subsume that argument under more specific objections to neo-liberalism and how that has destroyed notions of community and belonging.

And that may well be true (cant say for sure without seeing rather more of the actual comments), but simply saying 'it's all neo-liberalism' without countering the racist aspect means that racism will go unchallenged and will be an open door for the right. There isn't a single narrative we can impose on the referendum result without missing other key factors that also need addressing. This piece has some value in doing that, but still looks to have a lot of shortcomings.

It's a shame they don't publish the full transcripts of the interviews.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Some interesting reading, but their methodology looks like bullshit.

Interviewed 27 people, eight from one working mans club and the rest their acquaintances (that's what 'snowball sampling' is). 20 men, seven women. All over 45 (or so they initially say. Later on they say one of them women is 42. Such inconsistency is poor for an academic paper). All white. It's not exactly a representative sample of anything, is it?

It's good the piece recognises that almost a third of their selectorate was motivated by fears around immigration (cant tell whether all eight were 'hostile and racist' - I'd presume not, or they couldn't be described as a small minority) and the usual blather about people getting 'something for nothing.' But it's never expanded upon. The authors seems to simply subsume that argument under more specific objections to neo-liberalism and how that has destroyed notions of community and belonging.

And that may well be true (cant say for sure without seeing rather more of the actual comments), but simply saying 'it's all neo-liberalism' without countering the racist aspect means that racism will go unchallenged and will be an open door for the right. There isn't a single narrative we can impose on the referendum result without missing other key factors that also need addressing. This piece has some value in doing that, but still looks to have a lot of shortcomings.

It’s not, and I’m not, suggesting that there is a single narrative. Race is clearly a factor according to this report. But not the dominant factor. The dominant factor is the crisis in working class political representation. This is important because the narrative of liberalism and much of the left places these issues the other way round or ignores the former completely. Accepting neoliberalism as the dominant factor in working class leaver motivations would pose too many difficult questions possibly.

Work is being done on black and Asian voters who voted brexit by the way. Initial indications are that race wasn’t the dominant factor for them either.

It’s almost like liberalism has and is deliberately mischaracterising the motivations and feelings of leavers, maybe because it’s easier write people off as racists rather than engage with the issues they actually report and discuss as important to them

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It's a shame they don't publish the full transcripts of the interviews.

They will be transcribed. I’ll ask one of the authors for a copy of them and if I can share them

 

[belboid]

It’s almost like liberalism has and is deliberately mischaracterising the motivations and feelings of leavers, maybe because it’s easier write people off as racists rather than engage with the issues they actually report and discuss as important to them

Yes, that is the narrative the Full Brexiteers want to push. Whilst ignoring, or in many cases, completely denying racism had any effect whatsoever. Which means not only that that motivations is mischaracterised, but also that that racism goes unchallenged. Which is obviously disastrous for our class.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yes, that is the narrative the Full Brexiteers want to push. Whilst ignoring, or in many cases, completely denying racism had any effect whatsoever. Which means not only that that motivations is mischaracterised, but also that that racism goes unchallenged. Which is obviously disastrous for our class.

Fucks sake Belboid. Full Brexiteers really don’t push the narrative that there is a crisis of working class political representation or that neoliberalism is the dominant motivating factor of the working class leave vote. You can do better than this...

 

[belboid]

Fucks sake Belboid. Full Brexiteers really don’t push the narrative that there is a crisis of working class political representation or that neoliberalism is the dominant motivating factor of the working class leave vote. You can do better than this...

eh? That is exactly what they do.

Full Brexiteers are the CPB types, yeah?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

eh? That is exactly what they do.

Full Brexiteers are the CPB types, yeah?

Time for your lie down...

 

[MrCurry]

... and where will M'Lord Pannick be, the very moment he steps out of the Supreme Court?

?

 

[Dogsauce]

Loved the way the BBC news was going on and on about how the supreme court thing was so compelling and dramatic. It really wasn’t, I turned over to watch something about catching fly tippers with hidden cameras instead. I don’t think they have any idea what people are interested in, weird bubble stuff.

 

[MrSki]

Who do you think is on the other side of these currency deals if not other hedge funds?

Why do you think that hedge funds are so into donating money to Johnson?
Interesting article here.

That 65% of Boris Johnson’s donations came from hedge funds, city traders and rich investors is problematic – politically. That up to 30 of them have connections to hedge funds which have increased their short positions over his assuming the leadership of the Conservative Party is problematic – politically.

The inference is not that the hedge funds are doing anything wrong or are motivated to make donations through profit rather than ideology, but that Boris Johnson’s decision-making could be swayed by his reliance on financial institutions and hedge funds for donations.

As the Ministerial Code makes clear, ministers should not only be free from conflicts of interest, but free from the appearance of conflicts of interests. That is where the problem lies; that there could be a perception that the country’s interests are diverging from the financial forces surrounding the Prime Minister.

 

[kabbes]

And where do you think the Remain money is coming from? The unions?

 

[MrSki]

And where do you think the Remain money is coming from? The unions?

Unions have been traditionally split over europe but why are hedge fund managers so keen on Johnson?

 

[kabbes]

Unions have been traditionally split over europe but why are hedge fund managers so keen on Johnson?

Hedge funds are also keen on Remain. You’re mistaking what some funds want for what all funds want.

 

[Wilf]

?

At least one person got it.

 

[paolo]

Who do you think is on the other side of these currency deals if not other hedge funds?

Your suggestion is that only hedge funds trade in FX.

I’m fairly sure that’s BS. Call me on it, and I’ll come back to you.

 

[kabbes]

Your suggestion is that only hedge funds trade in FX.

I’m fairly sure that’s BS. Call me on it, and I’ll come back to you.

My ongoing suggestion, as I have already posted, is that these positions are mostly being taken to, you know, *hedge*, not speculate.

Look, the idea that capital is lining up behind Brexit as a money making scheme is preposterous. For every speculator betting on Brexit, there are a thousand exploitative corporations relying for superprofit on the free flow of capital and labour — and the cherry picking of tax authority — that the EU grants them. Why do you think that both EU and U.K. stocks are hit by the thought of no deal, if it’s not because no deal will hurt their profits? The only reason that the speculators you fear can bet on downward movements is because there would be these downward movements. And those downward movements are effectively others betting against no deal and that they’ll be able to continue profiting out of the EU machine.

Ming’s whole obsession is like ignoring the raging beast thats eating you to concentrate on the parasite living on the back of the beast. Yes, there is a parasite. No, that’s not what’s important here.

 

[paolo]

My ongoing suggestion, as I have already posted, is that these positions are mostly being taken to, you know, *hedge*, not speculate.

Agreed... and to clarify: at the other end of a hedge fund FX trade could be a pension fund acting for workers money, hedging an investment in something not in the fund’s currency, as basic protection. It’s not a morally zero sum game, which is what your reply implied - “only dogs eating dogs” (my metaphorising of your comment)

The rest of your reply, no dispute on that.

 

[kabbes]

Agreed... and to clarify: at the other end of a hedge fund FX trade could be a pension fund acting for workers money, hedging an investment in something not in the fund’s currency, as basic protection. It’s not a morally zero sum game, which is what your reply implied - “only dogs eating dogs” (my metaphorising of your comment)

The rest of your reply, no dispute on that.

As is most of the money going short on Sterling.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpackleFrog]

Seeing more and more articles like this: Forget the election: It's time to replace Johnson with a government of national unity

I have a worrying feeling that at some point A50 actually will get revoked and what's worse is that I can see myself turning into a mirror image of some of the posters on here obsessing about how we're going to leave with no deal and the world will end. "They're going to revoke A50 and then we'll all be fucked."

 

[Wilf]

Seeing more and more articles like this: Forget the election: It's time to replace Johnson with a government of national unity

I have a worrying feeling that at some point A50 actually will get revoked and what's worse is that I can see myself turning into a mirror image of some of the posters on here obsessing about how we're going to leave with no deal and the world will end. "They're going to revoke A50 and then we'll all be fucked."

Wow. I find just about every sentence of that offensive, but I'll just quote this bit:

By contrast, all that a general election in November will do is to put Farage and Johnson back in their comfort zones, rabble rousing their way across the country, hogging the media limelight, and lying to audiences who have lost their appetite for truth. It gives them a chance of winning when there is no legitimate reason to do so

'Audiences who have lost their appetite for truth'. Gosh. Oh my.

Weren't we all happier in the days when Charles Turner thought we were just racist thickos?

Edit: the comments on that piece are quite something as well.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I know. "It gives them a chance at winning (an election)." Terrifying stuff.