Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

IS BREXIT ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN?


I dont think Brexit is going to happen. The forces who don't want it to happen are too great.

Opposed are the majority of the british political establishment, the Civil Service, the education and arts institutions, the City of London, large corporate interests, the TUC, the US, the EU, international finance, Scotland, Northern Ireland and half the population - and that proportion is likely to grow as the cluster fuck unfolds.

For Brexit - UKIP, some of the right wing press plus Tory Euro Sceptics - whose leading lights suddenly seem distinctly half arsed about the prospect. Plus whatever pressure the democratic mandate of a 52-48% referendum result can bring to bear.

As well as the political and popular resistance to brexit – not forgetting the parliamentary blocs than could be thrown in the way - there is the herculean task of unpicking the legal ties of the UK from the EU, the massive disruption to the economy and people’s lives plus the prospect of Scotland going independent and the mess it will make of Northern Ireland.

Where is the political will and influence that is going to push all this through? How much popular support is there going to be for this move as it become clear that it is not going to free up loads of cash, it wont reduce immigration and it will likely have negative effects on things like pensions, house prices, unemployment, regional funding in places like wales and cornwall, the cost of imports, holidays – plus the likely hood of recession.

I don’t see it happening. There will be climbdowns and fudges and lots of jiggery pokery until there’s just enough argument for a second referendum and we will be back where we where – apart from seeing the near complete meltdown of the british political establishment and possible splitting or even destruction of both of the main parties.

 

[weltweit]

The ballot papers said remain or leave the EU and the voters chose leave.

 

[wheelie_bin]

It certainly appears that the political "leaders" are doing their best to make it look impossible.

Where's the option for a second referendum with another exit vote that nobody understands?

And we won't necessarily lose Scotland. 38% voted leave, some remainers will be torn between UK and EU, a large number don't want the Euro, oil is down in price, they'll see the rest of Britain eventually get moving towards an EFTA deal... I hope we don't lose them anyway, however friendly we may all stay afterwards.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

The ballot papers said remain or leave the EU and the voters chose leave.

Since when has what voters wanted counted for anything?

 

[weltweit]

Since when has what voters wanted counted for anything?

Indeed, and since when has a politician's promise meant anything?

 

[Miss Caphat]

As an outsider it looks very wonky. I think it won't stand. I think that perhaps mostly because London, which we all see as the political and economic hub of the country, was so opposed. It just doesn't seem to make any sense.

 

[Pickman's model]

Since when has what voters wanted counted for anything?

Only when it accords with what politicians want

 

[JimW]

We'll end up with the the Poundland EEA version

 

[Obediah Marsh]

You think we have chaos now, just wait until the 'London elites' annul the result.

 

[brogdale]

According to the headline to his Telegraph piece, Leadership contender Jeremy Hunt will rock up with the USP of offering a 2nd referendum.
Lol

 

[Brixton Hatter]

It's a fascinating situation; tricky to predict what will happen next. The Civil Service, having apparently done virtually no contingency planning, is now apparently preparing to leave 100% with Oliver Letwin at the helm, even though there's no certainty who the next PM will be, and whether they will actually trigger article 50. The EU elite is trying to flex its muscles but nothing happens without a political decision from the UK. A right good mess.

 

[butchersapron]

Fuck it. i'll trigger it.

 

[Supine]

Something between 2 and 3.

A lot of very clever people are trying to avoid a full exit.

 

[brogdale]

The bracket in the first option in the poll might need NI & Gib included if reports are right.

 

[brogdale]

Something between 2 and 3.

A lot of very clever people are trying to avoid a full exit.

Powerful more than clever, I'd say.

 

[butchersapron]

Powerful more than clever, I'd say.

Invested i would say.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Something between 2 and 3.

A lot of very clever people are trying to avoid a full exit.

It does somewhat feel like the politicians are determined to "prove" that a leave is chaotic. I wonder how many of them realise it just makes them look incompetent and unelectable.

 

[brogdale]

Invested i would say.

Quite so.

 

[brogdale]

It does somewhat feel like the politicians are determined to "prove" that a leave is chaotic. I wonder how many of them realise it just makes them look incompetent and unelectable.

They don't care about looking unelectable...people keep voting them in regardless.

 

[xenon]

As an outsider it looks very wonky. I think it won't stand. I think that perhaps mostly because London, which we all see as the political and economic hub of the country, was so opposed. It just doesn't seem to make any sense.

Since when does it have to make sense.

I suspect a classic British fudge maybe in the works. Too late now, the genie is out of the bottle, the bottle has been smashed.

 

[Skyfallsz]

It would kind of be a waste because even though for me personally the EU is great, I am still optimistic enough about the world to see that it could be a great thing that we can finally stop pretending it's ok. Things do still happen. A lot of people don't make these connections like the EU to the migrant crisis or terrorism which is insane.
My dream is that the EU is reformed from a 20th century institution into a 21st century one, but I have never even contributed to that in the slightest.
One undeniable thing about the referendum was that the EU itself did very little to help it's cause. They had a couple of finance ministers snort at the very idea and post some veiled threats. Like anybody trusts an EU finance minister, 'oh how's that going by the way?

 

[Miss Caphat]

Since when does it have to make sense.

I suspect a classic British fudge maybe in the works. Too late now, the genie is out of the bottle, the bottle has been smashed.

To put it another way, it looks like a big mistake to the rest of the world. Who do have some influence considering the financial aspect. And sure, it can be argued that is nothing new. But it also looks reversible.

 

[Wookey]

If this "ridicusitch" (ridiculous situation, mine, you can borrow it) if this ridiculsitch was a meal, it would be a dodgy 22-second omelette off of that Saturday Kitchen; under-seasoned, no finesse, raw in the middle and likely to make us all sick if we eat it.

I think everyone's balls are up in the air, and I'm aware that I'm scanning the sky looking for my type of balls. (Which means I might be selectively choosing my evidence!) The dissonance in the media is worse than I've ever seen it, contradictions and agendurbation (agenda masturbation) almost everywhere. I wish I was illiterate and oblivious, I really do.

But that said, I can't see Article 50 being triggered (click-boom!)any time soon, mainly because no-one has a fucking Scooby what to do for the best once they press the button, which I imagine will be red, and secreted in a beachwood box underneath whoever-will-be the PMs's desk. Scotland is a gorgeous tartan spanner in the works, Gib a slightly rockier and uglier spanner, NI a spiky shamrock of shenanigans - the ripples from this are tsunami-size. My sense is that various vested interests are scrabbling round for the least damaging way out of this which might (as Jeremy Cunt writes today) be something like a revised Norway-type deal that keeps the kingdom together in the single market, but falls short of using Article 50. (A finger of fudge is just enough...!)

Honestly, it feels at times like I've woken up in a shonky Robert Harris novel, in which he envisions a dystopian British future, where through some twisted sequence of hitherto unlikely-looking events, our witless prime minister has actually managed to sleepwalk the nation into the spinning propeller blades of his own creation, and seen us spat out the other side in bloodied chunks, as barely recognisable gobbets of country, riven by border checkpoints and dangerous regionalism, a capital superstate in the south and race violence everywhere else, our cities smothered in sad decline, gutted out by social chaos and eventual war. Somewhere. With someone. Ourselves probably! If this is the end of civilisation, I for one didn't expect it to happen this way, and I haven't prepared any lunch or packed a bag.

But you wouldn't believe it if you read it, would you?! It's like when you have a really long and involved dream, and it's so fucking real, and you come down the next morning and say "You won't believe this dream I had, honest to god...it was so scary, like the end of times! I dreamed everyone split up, Scotland fucked off, Northern Ireland exploded, government virtually collapsed, the pound dropped through the floor, everyone resigned including the Downing Street cat, Richard Branston was crying...and half the people we knew actually voted for it! Thank fuck I woke up..."

But we're not gonna wake up, are we? Or maybe we have.

 

[butchersapron]

That's a draft right?

 

[Skyfallsz]

If this "ridicusitch" (ridiculous situation, mine, you can borrow it) if this ridiculsitch was a meal, it would be a dodgy 22-second omelette off of that Saturday Kitchen; under-seasoned, no finesse, raw in the middle and likely to make us all sick if we eat it.

I think everyone's balls are up in the air, and I'm aware that I'm scanning the sky looking for my type of balls. (Which means I might be selectively choosing my evidence!) The dissonance in the media is worse than I've ever seen it, contradictions and agendurbation (agenda masturbation) almost everywhere. I wish I was illiterate and oblivious, I really do.

But that said, I can't see Article 50 being triggered (click-boom!)any time soon, mainly because no-one has a fucking Scooby what to do for the best once they press the button, which I imagine will be red, and secreted in a beachwood box underneath whoever-will-be the PMs's desk. Scotland is a gorgeous tartan spanner in the works, Gib a slightly rockier and uglier spanner, NI a spiky shamrock of shenanigans - the ripples from this are tsunami-size. My sense is that various vested interests are scrabbling round for the least damaging way out of this which might (as Jeremy Cunt writes today) be something like a revised Norway-type deal that keeps the kingdom together in the single market, but falls short of using Article 50. (A finger of fudge is just enough...!)

Honestly, it feels at times like I've woken up in a shonky Robert Harris novel, in which he envisions a dystopian British future, where through some twisted sequence of hitherto unlikely-looking events, our witless prime minister has actually managed to sleepwalk the nation into the spinning propeller blades of his own creation, and seen us spat out the other side in bloodied chunks, as barely recognisable gobbets of country, riven by border checkpoints and dangerous regionalism, a capital superstate in the south and race violence everywhere else, our cities smothered in sad decline, gutted out by social chaos and eventual war. Somewhere. With someone. Ourselves probably! If this is the end of civilisation, I for one didn't expect it to happen this way, and I haven't prepared any lunch or packed a bag.

But you wouldn't believe it if you read it, would you?! It's like when you have a really long and involved dream, and it's so fucking real, and you come down the next morning and say "You won't believe this dream I had, honest to god...it was so scary, like the end of times! I dreamed everyone split up, Scotland fucked off, Northern Ireland exploded, government virtually collapsed, the pound dropped through the floor, everyone resigned including the Downing Street cat, Richard Branston was crying...and half the people we knew actually voted for it! Thank fuck I woke up..."

But we're not gonna wake up, are we? Or maybe we have.

I sort of agree with your sentiment but England punching Europe was bound to happen

How can you not punch each other, when you're exactly the same?

 

[Wookey]

That's a draft right?

I've been polishing that for over a week, you bitch!

 

[tim]

It does somewhat feel like the politicians are determined to "prove" that a leave is chaotic. I wonder how many of them realise it just makes them look incompetent and unelectable.

I think that, after the last few days, they all realise.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

They will have to trigger article 50 asap. I agree it has to wait until a negotiating team can be assembled & that might take 3mnths & I see nothing wrong with informal talks first but it cannot be open ended. The referendum result cannot be overturned or rerun until a desired result that is achieved. ignoring election results they don't like is the stuff of dictatorships.

 

[tim]

If this "ridicusitch" (ridiculous situation, mine, you can borrow it) if this ridiculsitch was a meal, it would be a dodgy 22-second omelette off of that Saturday Kitchen; under-seasoned, no finesse, raw in the middle and likely to make us all sick if we eat it.

I think everyone's balls are up in the air, and I'm aware that I'm scanning the sky looking for my type of balls. (Which means I might be selectively choosing my evidence!) The dissonance in the media is worse than I've ever seen it, contradictions and agendurbation (agenda masturbation) almost everywhere. I wish I was illiterate and oblivious, I really do.

But that said, I can't see Article 50 being triggered (click-boom!)any time soon, mainly because no-one has a fucking Scooby what to do for the best once they press the button, which I imagine will be red, and secreted in a beachwood box underneath whoever-will-be the PMs's desk. Scotland is a gorgeous tartan spanner in the works, Gib a slightly rockier and uglier spanner, NI a spiky shamrock of shenanigans - the ripples from this are tsunami-size. My sense is that various vested interests are scrabbling round for the least damaging way out of this which might (as Jeremy Cunt writes today) be something like a revised Norway-type deal that keeps the kingdom together in the single market, but falls short of using Article 50. (A finger of fudge is just enough...!)

Honestly, it feels at times like I've woken up in a shonky Robert Harris novel, in which he envisions a dystopian British future, where through some twisted sequence of hitherto unlikely-looking events, our witless prime minister has actually managed to sleepwalk the nation into the spinning propeller blades of his own creation, and seen us spat out the other side in bloodied chunks, as barely recognisable gobbets of country, riven by border checkpoints and dangerous regionalism, a capital superstate in the south and race violence everywhere else, our cities smothered in sad decline, gutted out by social chaos and eventual war. Somewhere. With someone. Ourselves probably! If this is the end of civilisation, I for one didn't expect it to happen this way, and I haven't prepared any lunch or packed a bag.

But you wouldn't believe it if you read it, would you?! It's like when you have a really long and involved dream, and it's so fucking real, and you come down the next morning and say "You won't believe this dream I had, honest to god...it was so scary, like the end of times! I dreamed everyone split up, Scotland fucked off, Northern Ireland exploded, government virtually collapsed, the pound dropped through the floor, everyone resigned including the Downing Street cat, Richard Branston was crying...and half the people we knew actually voted for it! Thank fuck I woke up..."

But we're not gonna wake up, are we? Or maybe we have.

People love a bit of drama, don't they? The seats will all be rearrranged and we'll go back to normal fairly soon.

 

[emanymton]

I want to know what chilango thinks, then I'll go with the opposite.