Iran

[teqniq]

Thread worth a read

 

[teqniq]

... I still support these protests and am not saying it's all foreign interference (I don't buy that at all)..

It would seem from reading around a bit on twitter that the protests were initially started by hardliners in an effort to unseat Rouhani and the moderates but they miscalculated the feelings of the wider populace wrt to corruption and economic stagnation and the whole thing rapidly slipped from their control.

 

[butchersapron]

It would seem from reading around a bit on twitter that the protests were initially started by hardliners in an effort to unseat Rouhani and the moderates but they miscalculated the feelings of the wider populace wrt to corruption and economic stagnation and the whole thing rapidly slipped from their control.

I've seen nothing beyond 'might' or rumours of. Nothing concrete aside from the first one starting in a traditionally conservative city.

And can we make clear the 'moderates' in this situation are neo-liberal theocrats.

 

[teqniq]

Well ok to be fair it is just one explanation but yeah I certainly agree that 'moderates' here is not meant in the usual sense.

 

[butchersapron]

From a kurdish news agency - with some interesting thoughts at the end about potential political/economic demands (of course splitting them is always a tool of power).Of course this may be wishful thinking but the tenor of these protests if very different from 2009 and has been seasoned by Syria (and if we could avoid disappearing the iranian people in favour of trump and US interests by day five then that would be great) and the Arab Spring:

What do the people in Iran want, why do the protest?

* So, is it the main difference that today’s protests are against both the reformers and the conservatives?

Indeed. The society now knows very well that the reformists and the conservatives are two players in the same game. In this regard, it is worth taking a look at the slogans: "Death to the dictator", "Death to Rouhani", "Death to the Islamic Republic", "Death to Hezbollah" is called. Society is now aware that reforms will not change the system.

 

[elbows]

I've not got much info. Will spend some time looking today but dont expect to gain much clarity.

Was vaguely amused by this tweet and some of the responses.

 

[teqniq]

Predictably the powers that be are blaming 'outside agencies'.

Iran's enemies to blame for unrest, says supreme leader, as nine die overnight

 

[elbows]

Predictably the powers that be are blaming 'outside agencies'.

Yeah. The only thing surprising about it is it took a day or 3 longer for this propaganda to be deployed than I expected.

Meanwhile Adonis seems to be sticking to painting this as reformers vs hardliners, revealing plenty about the status quo and international 'lets do business with the moderates' shit and very little about the actual situation right now. Comedy.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah. The only thing surprising about it is it took a day or 3 longer for this propaganda to be deployed than I expected.

The anti-imperialist left were off and running with it from day one.

 

[rekil]

IASWI statement on the new wave of mass protests in Iran

A working class and progressive position defends a real peace and the independence of the workers’ movement: an anti-capitalist position not only opposes economic sanctions but also any attempts by the US and its allies to pursue war against Iran, while, at the same time, supporting the ever-increasing workers’ struggles against the repressive Islamic regime and capitalists in Iran, that have been viciously implementing the most aggressive and ruthless anti-worker, totalitarian and neo-liberal policies in this country’s contemporary history.

Aaron Bastani is supporting the state I see. He was smashing up HSBC a few years ago.

 

[elbows]

The anti-imperialist left were off and running with it from day one.

Well it doesnt require any thought or updating of positions, just flick that tired old switch!

This article mentions protest votes (eg spoilt ballots) in elections in locations such as Qom.

Why Reformists Do Not Empathize with the Protesters

 

[elbows]

Paul Masons bullet points.

Bullet points on the Iranian revolt – Mosquito Ridge – Medium

Quite a lot of them are rather quotable, not sure how I will pick just a few but here goes:

1. There is a split in the ruling elite. The masses know the Rouhani wing can’t crack down without strenghening its hardline enemies. Numerous statements and briefings from 2009/Green movement reformists show they are not enthusiastic about the revolt

4. The people on the streets are from the youth, the lower middle class and the working class, and not mainly the salaried upper middle class. I cannot discern, at this distance, the extent of secular, liberal, participation but the diaspora seems split, with some supportive but some 2009-era reformers hostile to the idea of independent mass participation (ie with no clear political faction to support).

5. The slogans moved quickly from economic discontent to calls for the overthrow of the regime. The demos spread without any clear leader or programme; on the basis of all previous mass revolts in history that indictes widespread economic discontent and subcultural dislocation which the regime’s intelligence services didn’t pick up.

7. The scale of the unrest, combined with the split in the elite, looks like it’s been a restraining force on the Basij/IRGC — they know they could face popular justice. However they clearly have not yet been given orders to inflict mass slaughter

9. Putin, Assad, Hezbollah and all their cheerleaders in the alt-right and Stalinist left are already trying to smear the protests as pro-imperialist. The revolt shows, once again, that Stalinism is not a dead issue in the progressive movement, and that its remaining advocates want only an authoritarian “anti-imperialist” regime to support.

10. Iran has a sizeable industrial, urban working class. Their failure to fully support the Green movement in 2009 was significant; which in turn was because the 2009 reform leaders had an inadequate social/economic programme, and did not look like they were serious about revolt on the scale needed to give the organised workers confidence to break from the regime. It’s not clear whether today’s (2 Jan) strike call has been successful.

13. The cold panic running through the Putin-Assad troll-osphere indicates they all realise a bitter truth: once one of these murdering kleptocratic states falls, they all will.

14. It’s not a revolution, yet, but all the “experts” saying it can’t become one are wrong. No matter how limited the split in the elite is, the masses are educated and seem well informed. They are highly capable of comparing current reality to the possibility of Iran as a democratic, socially-just and relatively prosperous country, integrated on its own terms into the global order, with Mosque and state separate.

OK I failed to narrow it down to just a few, oh well.

 

[elbows]

If the general strike call had been successful, I kinda think we might have heard about it by now. But I cant be sure, since as usual the flow of info in English is not exactly great.

 

[cantsin]

IASWI statement on the new wave of mass protests in Iran



Aaron Bastani is supporting the state I see. He was smashing up HSBC a few years ago.

yep, v unimpressed with Bastano here, he seems to be suggesting that we shldnt be supporting the protests ( and todays gen strike ?) , and instead be lobbying our govts to press the Mullahs for reforms.

"Fully Auto Lux Comm for the West , slightly less oppressive theocracies for the mid east"

 

[J Ed]

Not that I'm begruding the people in Iran for what they are doing, the Iranian government is no friend of the left, but what I am curious about and what there seems to be a dearth of information about is the makeup and positioning of those who are taking part in the protests. It reminds me a lot of Libya, when once you read in a little bit more depth you found out that a lot of the opposition to Gaddaffi was the same sort of group which ended up blowing up kids in Manchester in 2017. Not that I'm suggesting any sort of role on the part of Salafists here, the demographic makeup of Iran makes that impossible, but just who are these people? What do they want and why?

 

[teqniq]

Iranian Protests and the Working Class

 

[butchersapron]

Not that I'm begruding the people in Iran for what they are doing, the Iranian government is no friend of the left, but what I am curious about and what there seems to be a dearth of information about is the makeup and positioning of those who are taking part in the protests. It reminds me a lot of Libya, when once you read in a little bit more depth you found out that a lot of the opposition to Gaddaffi was the same sort of group which ended up blowing up kids in Manchester in 2017. Not that I'm suggesting any sort of role on the part of Salafists here, the demographic makeup of Iran makes that impossible, but just who are these people? What do they want and why?

wtf? I didn't expect this semi-racist shit from you.

Thanks for not begrudging btw. 100s of thousands of people putting their lifes on the line to oppose a hardline theocratic state and you don't begrudge them? They must feel so lucky.

 

[butchersapron]

Not that I'm begruding the people in Iran for what they are doing, the Iranian government is no friend of the left, but what I am curious about and what there seems to be a dearth of information about is the makeup and positioning of those who are taking part in the protests. It reminds me a lot of Libya, when once you read in a little bit more depth you found out that a lot of the opposition to Gaddaffi was the same sort of group which ended up blowing up kids in Manchester in 2017. Not that I'm suggesting any sort of role on the part of Salafists here, the demographic makeup of Iran makes that impossible, but just who are these people? What do they want and why?

Why don't you look for info? Dearth? In five days you want to be given exact info on what's happening, whose doing it and why - and if you don't get it you'll default to it being exactly what happened in libya?

 

[sihhi]

It's not like Libya any more than eg Congo. The participation of women is higher, much higher for a start.

I'll not understand how Novara are go-to commentator depots for SkyNews etc, Bastani's comment is quite misleading

"Rouhani is a neoliberal economically and something of a social liberal. Protest is happening in places where voters wanted candidates to right of him."

1 Protest is happening all across the country.
2 Police stations have been burnt down where voters wanted candidates to the left but were not allowed under Council regulations.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

he keeps shifting to the right anew every day.

Hardly surprising after they gave a talk socialism via nationalism. smh.

 

[Rimbaud]

Why don't you look for info? Dearth? In five days you want to be given exact info on what's happening, whose doing it and why - and if you don't get it you'll default to it being exactly what happened in libya?

He is looking for info, that's what his post was, asking for information.

 

[butchersapron]

He is looking for info, that's what his post was, asking for information.

"it reminds me of libya" - j Ed knows better than this, to immediately compare to what is seen as a disaster. And to put it in terms of what stuff appears to be but is really underneath. The iranian working class dissapears, like the syrian w/c went. I know 100% j ed doesn't mean this but that's how deep this stuff gone now...it can even be put in this way that communists questions revolts against theocracies.

 

[J Ed]

wtf? I didn't expect this semi-racist shit from you.

Thanks for not begrudging btw. 100s of thousands of people putting their lifes on the line to oppose a hardline theocratic state and you don't begrudge them? They must feel so lucky.

This is a fair enough criticism on both accounts. Will just read rather than comment on this.

 

[sihhi]

"it reminds me of libya" - j Ed knows better than this, to immediately compare to what is seen as a disaster. And to put it in terms of what stuff appears to be but is really underneath. The iranian working class dissapears, like the syrian w/c went. I know 100% j ed doesn't mean this but that's how deep this stuff gone now...it can even be put in this way that communists questions revolts against theocracies.

why does the "iranian working class dissapears" like lots of places behind the anti-imperialist belt (iran, belarus, venezuela, syria, cuba - even god help us people's democratic korea), i think the economic crisis is hitting certain sectors for real this time the first time, so the comfort from having (even a misshapen) bulwark against the prevailing order (when strike action at home is so low) is all the greater.

in the first stages of any revolt like this comments of people at home reveal more about the state of our societies, our left than the country under discussion.

 

[butchersapron]

Isn't this saying that this misshapen defence is no good?

 

[sihhi]

Isn't this saying that this misshapen defence is no good?

It doesn't do any practical good as far as I can see.

 

[sihhi]

Two articles:

On-going Protests in Iran Are an Extension of the Islamic Republic’s Founding Ethos

To Show Solidarity with Protestors in Iran, Do Not Erase the Iranian Working Class

 

[sihhi]

Paul Masons bullet points.

Bullet points on the Iranian revolt – Mosquito Ridge – Medium

Quite a lot of them are rather quotable, not sure how I will pick just a few but here goes:


OK I failed to narrow it down to just a few, oh well.

Point 9 :

9. Putin, Assad, Hezbollah and all their cheerleaders in the alt-right and Stalinist left are already trying to smear the protests as pro-imperialist. The revolt shows, once again, that Stalinism is not a dead issue in the progressive movement, and that its remaining advocates want only an authoritarian “anti-imperialist” regime to support.

He's simply lumped in Putin there for no reason except to magnify the image of a totalitarian enemy for his own mad plans, Putin hasn't said a single word about the protests and Russia's ministry of foreign affairs said it was an internal matter for Iran.

 

[teqniq]

Putin himself may indeed have said nothing but someone in the administration has gone on record:

..Moscow has warned against foreign meddling. It says it considers the mass unrest in Iran as an internal affair stressing that "External interference destabilizing the situation is inadmissible"...

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

What to make of Iran’s demonstrations - Liberation News