Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[Andrew Hertford]

They'll have to change the Union Jack. Which will be massive pain in the arse for marketing folk everywhere.

Why? We might as well keep it the way it is. Unless the Scots decide to sue us for having blue in our flag.

If the UK has to change its flag then so presumably will Australia, New Zealand, Montserrat. Bremuda, Fiji, Tuvalu etc.

 

[newbie]

even if scotland goes indy the loss of slab votes will still see labour with a clear majority in england, if the polls are to be believed. Anyway I think that even with a yes to indy the slab contingent won't be sperated off till after the upcoming GE.

England or the rUK parliament? This BBC page is a few months old but clearly gives Dave a 21 seat majority, where are you getting your numbers from?

 

[Andrew Hertford]

But the rest of us will be stuck with a tory government till the cows come home.

That's the bitter reality. At the moment there are 40 Scottish Labour MPs and only 1 tory. Let's not be in denial about it; it will become far easier for the tories to win without Scotland.

 

[8ball]

But the rest of us will be stuck with a tory government till the cows come home.

Nope.

 

[kebabking]

the UF didn't change when Ireland left the UK a mere 90-odd years ago, and the Royal Arms of England didn't stop including France for the best part of three hundred and fifty years after English possession of the large areas of France ended, and 200 years after any serious claim to France was made..

quite why anyone should think a new flag would be required any sooner than the above examples suggest is the norm is beyond me.

 

[8ball]

Losing both of the Scottish anarchists would certainly be a major blow.

Danny La Rouge and weepiper are leaving Urban if there's a yes vote??!?

 

[8ball]

quite why anyone should think a new flag would be required any sooner than the above examples suggest is the norm is beyond me.

Because the Scottish would have exclusive rights to the colour blue and would sue our asses - have you not been paying attention at all?

 

[treelover]

Well, new royal baby on the way, so the 'pernicious Scots' won't get much more coverage.

 

[DotCommunist]

fingers crossed its another ginger cuckoo

 

[danny la rouge]

Danny La Rouge and weepiper are leaving Urban if there's a yes vote??!?

Yes, we'd have to, because no foreigners can post on the internet.

 

[butchersapron]

England or the rUK parliament? This BBC page is a few months old but clearly gives Dave a 21 seat majority, where are you getting your numbers from?

The BBC's numbers are from the 2010 GE - Tory 36.4% labour 29%. They're pretty far away from current (or pretty much all post-2010) polling.

 

[8ball]

Yes, we'd have to, because no foreigners can post on the internet.

Yeah, right. You bloody anarchists would just sneak back in pretending to be Firky or something.

 

[danny la rouge]

Who are these 'anarchist purists'?

I'm thinking of certain comrades here.

This covers a range of thinking:

http://glasgowanarchists.wordpress.com/2012/04/10/independent-and-free/

 

[newbie]

The BBC's numbers are from the 2010 GE - Tory 36.4% labour 29%. They're pretty far away from current (or pretty much all post-2010) polling.

yes, but it's all I've been able to find, where has up to date predictions of an rUK parliament based on current polling and constituency boundaries? Electoral calculus shows a 30 seat lab majority but that's propped up by 41 Scottish seats and opposed by the other 18 Scottish seats.

 

[andysays]

England or the rUK parliament? This BBC page is a few months old but clearly gives Dave a 21 seat majority, where are you getting your numbers from?

What that piece says is that if the last GE had happened without the Scottish MPs, the Tories would have had an overall majority.

Current polling suggests that Labour will have a majority at the next GE, and will still retain it if Scottish MPs leave Westminster.

 

[andysays]

yes, but it's all I've been able to find, where has up to date predictions of an rUK parliament based on current polling and constituency boundaries? Electoral calculus shows a 30 seat lab majority but that's propped up by 41 Scottish seats and opposed by the other 18 Scottish seats.

You may be forgeting that if the Scottish MPs go, the overall number of MPs and therefore the number needed for a majority also goes down

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm thinking of certain comrades here.

This covers a range of thinking:

http://glasgowanarchists.wordpress.com/2012/04/10/independent-and-free/

That piece raises a good question, I think: If you like the kinds of promises Salmond has been making about the direction he'd like to take Scotland in, what is the best framework within which to force him to keep to those promises? I would suggest that 'devomax' may well be the answer to this question.

 

[Idris2002]

Can you really rule out civil war?

 

[weepiper]

That piece raises a good question, I think: If you like the kinds of promises Salmond has been making about the direction he'd like to take Scotland in, what is the best framework within which to force him to keep to those promises? I would suggest that 'devomax' may well be the answer to this question.

Devo max isn't on the ballot paper.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

douglas hurd. He nos.

 

[Idris2002]

douglas hurd. He nos.

I assume that's the Douglas Hurd, right?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I assume that's the Douglas Hurd, right?

I seem to remember that he was an aspiring novelist once upon a time, so yes, I think it will be.

 

[newbie]

You may be forgeting that if the Scottish MPs go, the overall number of MPs and therefore the number needed for a majority also goes down

I'm not forgetting that. I've been searching for someone who's done the calculations and so far all I've found is unsubstantiated assertions.

 

[Idris2002]

I seem to remember that he was an aspiring novelist once upon a time, so yes, I think it will be.

Not just the rhyming slang for 'tory'.

 

[treelover]

Just read somewhere that the Gov't has already spent future North Sea oil revenues through 'rehypothecation'

is this correct or nonsense on the web?

 

[andysays]

I'm not forgetting that. I've been searching for someone who's done the calculations and so far all I've found is unsubstantiated assertions.

I've done the calculations, and posted my conclusions earlier on this very thread, but here they are again...

This site currently predicts a Labour majority of 30 at the next GE

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.82%258
LAB29.66%25834.31%340
LIB23.56%57 8.49%19
UKIP 3.17%015.89%0
NAT 2.26%9 2.95%14
MIN 4.37%19 6.54%19

If we remove 40 seats from Labour (that's their currently predicted no of Scottish seats) that gives them 300.

There are currently 59 Scottish MPs out of a total of 650, so if we remove all of them from Westminster after a notional independence, there will be a total of 591, meaning that Labour would still have an overall majority.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm not forgetting that. I've been searching for someone who's done the calculations and so far all I've found is unsubstantiated assertions.

You can't do any calculations beyond coming up with a forecasting model then putting figures in - either current polling figures or others. And that's only been done on a UK basis so you need to do some gap filling in yourself. UK polling report give a 31 seat labour majority based on uniform national swing for the UK. Electoral calculus incorporate regional/other variations and come up with a 30 seat labour majority (i think this is the lowest they've had for some time - it's tended to be 70+for labour and has been as high as 100+). These are all that we can possibly have at this stage.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just read somewhere that the Gov't has already spent future North Sea oil revenues through 'rehypothecation'

is this correct or nonsense on the web?

Link? If they have borrowed on the back of future oil revenues, they can, if they wish, borrow some more on the back of being a govt that can raise taxes and replace said hypothecation with that.

Could be a ruse to hide debt on a balance sheet, I guess.

 

[danny la rouge]

That piece raises a good question, I think: If you like the kinds of promises Salmond has been making about the direction he'd like to take Scotland in, what is the best framework within which to force him to keep to those promises? I would suggest that 'devomax' may well be the answer to this question.

We aren't voting on Salmond's promises, though. The question we're being asked is: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Not: "Do you endorse the SNP's White Paper?"

There will, for the millionth time, to put it bluntly, be. fucking. elections.

 

[danny la rouge]

But we're getting back off "the implications for the rest of us".