Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[DotCommunist]

Ha ha. There's also Left Unity and others. You speak the language of eternal defeat.

eh I'm just not sure the political wing of the woodcraft folk have much to offer, nor the usual suspects talking shops. I have not totally abandoned all hope though! things work by increments I suppose not overnight solutions.

 

[Pickman's model]

there'll be some extra money made by people whose houses or land straddle the border, as there is on the border between the 6 & 26 cos.

 

[futurereal]

Yes, I know how much LU (and others) are derided on Urban but that's Urban for you.

I think LU bring it on themselves tbh.

 

[nino_savatte]

eh I'm just not sure the political wing of the woodcraft folk have much to offer, nor the usual suspects talking shops. I have not totally abandoned all hope though! things work by increments I suppose not overnight solutions.

Really? This incremental change that I've heard so much about is more glacial in its speed than incremental. But yeah, derision, that's the way forward.

 

[nino_savatte]

I think LU bring it on themselves tbh.

Yes and in your eyes no doubt the rest of them do too.

 

[brogdale]

i'll be exploring the possibility of political asylum in scotland should this go through

There's South London's Lakeland as an alternative, though....assuming this Thursday's vote goes the right way!

http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/...ependence_referendum_on_eve_of_Scotland_vote/

 

[futurereal]

Yes and in your eyes no doubt the rest of them do too.

Depends who "the rest of them" are really?

I think the Greens are a viable option for shaking up politics in England. They are electable, have several strong support bases in England (Norwich and Brighton come to mind).
They have counterparts in other EU nations of course as well.

 

[andysays]

...I also suspect Scotland will set of a domino effect in Europe. Catalonia, the Basque region, Brittany, Belgium, Corsica maybe Wales...

I'm not so sure about this. I agree that Scottish independence may give a boost to desires for independence in those areas, but the existing nation states are under no obligation to offer them independence or a referendum which might lead to it.

If Scotland votes Yes, Cameron will be seen as having made a serious political miscalculation in allowing a referendum which he will rightly be seen as responsible for, one which the governments of Spain, France, Belgium and the new rUK will be even less likely to make.

 

[futurereal]

I'm not so sure about this. I agree that Scottish independence may give a boost to desires for independence in those areas, but the existing nation states are under no obligation to offer them independence or a referendum which might lead to it.

If Scotland votes Yes, Cameron will be seen as having made a serious political miscalculation in allowing a referendum which he will rightly be seen as responsible for, one which the governments of Spain, France, Belgium and the new rUK will be even less likely to make.

It's true that they are under no obligation. I guess though the question is: is it viable that they could continue to go-on and not allow a referendum?
Scotland sets a precendent in my opinion that Spain can't ignore.

 

[andysays]

It's true that they are under no obligation. I guess though the question is: is it viable that they could continue to go-on and not allow a referendum?
Scotland sets a precendent in my opinion that Spain can't ignore.

I don't know enough about the strength of demand for, say, an independent Catalonia to predict what the result of a referendum might be.

I suggest that if Cameron had thought he was going to lose, or even that it was going to be this close, he wouldn't have allowed this referendum to take place, and that the message Spain will take if Scotland votes Yes is

"don't offer Catalonia a referendum you think they'll vote No to, just in the hope it will shut them up for a generation*, in case they surprise you by voting Yes"

*This is the only reason I can see for Cameron allowing Scotland to vote, TBH - major miscalculation

 

[DotCommunist]

Really? This incremental change that I've heard so much about is more glacial in its speed than incremental. But yeah, derision, that's the way forward.

glaciers move by increments, its one of their noted features.

Its not derision so much as exasperation btw- I'm sure theres good people, good socialists and genuine people working in the mentioned orgs, but there are good eggs working within the labour party and look how far thats got us.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't know enough about the strength of demand for, say, an independent Catalonia to predict what the result of a referendum might be.

According to here, a poll this year indicated 55 percent support for full independence in Catalonia, which is a large increase. So the strength of demand is there. There's a very big 80+ percent support for a referendum.

Different dynamic, though. Within living memory, Catalan identity was persecuted, and also, Catalonia is a rich bit of Spain. There is also a large right-wing current in Catalan nationalism, and quite a bit of anti-Castellano feeling, so the situation is rather different.

 

[Pickman's model]

According to here, a poll this year indicated 55 percent support for full independence in Catalonia, which is a large increase. So the strength of demand is there. There's a very big 80+ percent support for a referendum.

Different dynamic, though. Within living memory, Catalan identity was persecuted, and also, Catalonia is a rich bit of Spain. There is also a large right-wing current in Catalan nationalism, and quite a bit of anti-Castellano feeling, so the situation is rather different.

when i was in barcelona a few septembers ago i saw the catalan processions on their national day, 11 september. a very diverse group of people were on the demonstration, from radical socialists or anarchists to the most reactionary freemason lot. still got a catalan afa flag though, but which i'd bought a phrygian cap too

 

[andysays]

According to here, a poll this year indicated 55 percent support for full independence in Catalonia, which is a large increase. So the strength of demand is there. There's a very big 80+ percent support for a referendum.

Different dynamic, though. Within living memory, Catalan identity was persecuted, and also, Catalonia is a rich bit of Spain. There is also a large right-wing current in Catalan nationalism, and quite a bit of anti-Castellano feeling, so the situation is rather different.

But a referendum for Catalan independence would need to be granted by the Spanish state, and they have no reason to agree to a referendum they're likely to lose.

 

[kebabking]

...*This is the only reason I can see for Cameron allowing Scotland to vote, TBH - major miscalculation

this idea puzzles me for its lack of logic - firstly when the referendum was asked for/demanded the 'yes' side would have been lucky to get 25% of the vote, so thats a big win for Cameron (the PM who saved the Union etc..) and a pretty political cataclismic defeat for the SNP and wider Scottish Nationalism, and secondly what do you think would have been the potential consequences of not allowing a referendum?

the absolute wiping out of the Tories north of the border?

civil unrest or even terrorism?

UDI?

making the UK a complete laughing stock - self determination for the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, not to mention Ukraine and the Baltic states, and the UK from the EU, but not for Scotland from the UK?

Cameron - and the rest of the Westminster parliament - allowed the referendum because to refuse one would be utterly contrary to everything they profess to, and probably do, believe. it would also be utterly self-defeating.

 

[futurereal]

But a referendum for Catalan independence would need to be granted by the Spanish state, and they have no reason to agree to a referendum they're likely to lose.

Depends what the composition of the Spanish states Congress of Deputies is though right?
The Catalan group has 16 seats and the Basque group 5, which ganted is not a lot.
However, should they reach a point where a coalition government is formed between the Left and the Nationalist groups in an election for example, one pre-cursor for the coalition might be an agreement to a referendum.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But a referendum for Catalan independence would need to be granted by the Spanish state, and they have no reason to agree to a referendum they're likely to lose.

It would require a new constitution, for starters, but if Scotland votes yes, pressure could mount on Spain to grant a referendum.

 

[andysays]

this idea puzzles me for its lack of logic - firstly when the referendum was asked for/demanded the 'yes' side would have been lucky to get 25% of the vote, so thats a big win for Cameron (the PM who saved the Union etc..) and a pretty political cataclismic defeat for the SNP and wider Scottish Nationalism, and secondly what do you think would have been the potential consequences of not allowing a referendum?

the absolute wiping out of the Tories north of the border?

civil unrest or even terrorism?

UDI?

making the UK a complete laughing stock - self determination for the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, not to mention Ukraine and the Baltic states, and the UK from the EU, but not for Scotland from the UK?

Cameron - and the rest of the Westminster parliament - allowed the referendum because to refuse one would be utterly contrary to everything they profess to, and probably do, believe. it would also be utterly self-defeating.

I'm suggesting that when Cameron agreed to a referendum, he thought the vote was bound to be No, otherwise he wouldn't have agreed. He thought he would get the political benefits you mention, but he misjudged things. Do you think he would have agreed if he had foreseen what has actually happened?

Some of your forecasts as to what would have happened had he not agreed suggest you've been reading the book someone posted earlier.

As far as the right to self-determination goes, the position within international law as far as I can remember* is that recognisable national groups within a larger nation have to be given regional autonomy short of full sovereignity within existing international borders (unless they are colonies), but they don't have to be given even the chance to choose independence.

Scotland is not a colony, Catalonia and the other examples futurereal mentioned are not colonies, even though some of their inhabitants might feel they're treated as if they were.

I happy to be corrected on this if I've got it wrong.

*and I'm not going to look it up now coz I'm busy, though I might do later...

 

[andysays]

Depends what the composition of the Spanish states Congress of Deputies is though right?
The Catalan group has 16 seats and the Basque group 5, which ganted is not a lot.
However, should they reach a point where a coalition government is formed between the Left and the Nationalist groups in an election for example, one pre-cursor for the coalition might be an agreement to a referendum.

Again, I don't know how sympathetic the Spanish left is to independence for Catalans and Basques, but in that situation they might well decide that it wasn't a price worth paying to enter a coalition.

 

[Idris2002]

I assume that Free Scotland will have to face the issue of joining the Commonwealth? Or would having Liz 2 as head of state make that part of the deal from day one?

And would it matter?

 

[chilango]

Can you really rule out civil war?

Is that online anywhere? I'd like to watch it...

 

[chilango]

Furthermore, as we keep having to point out, there are only 59 Scottish MPs, not all of them Labour. (Currently: 40 Labour, 11 Lib Dems, 6 SNP, 1 Tory, 1 independent).

Labour's majorities last time round were: 179 in 1997, 167 in 2001, 66 in 2005. Without Scottish MPs each time, all of those Labour governments would have been returned comfortably.

11 less Lib Dems you say?

Hmm. Surely improves our chances of having a Lib Dem free Commons,no?

Go for it Scotland!

 

[DotCommunist]

I assume that Free Scotland will have to face the issue of joining the Commonwealth? Or would having Liz 2 as head of state make that part of the deal from day one?

And would it matter?

I did asking this question and it was pointed out to me that all them other countries who threw off the shackles still get to be part of the commonwealth. It was pointed out in a sarcastic manner as well.

 

[andysays]

...*and I'm not going to look it up now coz I'm busy, though I might do later...

It doesn't actually take very long to google "self determination" and discover the following. The key sentence here appears to me to be

According to the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, the UN, ICJ and international law experts, there is no contradiction between the principles of self-determination and territorial integrity, with the latter taking precedence

but those who are interested may obviously want to read it in more detail.

 

[ska invita]

Here's an implication already: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ce-pound-slumps-to-lowest-level-for-10-months

pound slumps to lowest level for 10 months

Why is there "uncertainty" over the Pound? It's because of the No camp's currency union bluff. The market isn't repricing an independent Scotland's economy - that doesn't exist yet. It's repricing the UK economy.

Osborne will either have to ride out Sterling volatility until after 18th, when negotiations being if there's a Yes, or he'll have to declare it was a bluff and there will be currency union after all.

1c makes no difference - its hardly a slump

 

[Pickman's model]

i suppose independence would see scotland cease being called one of the home nations in football, rugby etc

 

[Pickman's model]

1c makes no difference - its hardly a slump

it is if you're a journo desperate for news on a slow day

 

[danny la rouge]

i suppose independence would see scotland cease being called one of the home nations in football, rugby etc

Really? Shit. Maybe I'll vote No.

 

[Pickman's model]

Really? Shit. Maybe I'll vote No.

go on, be a cameron poodle

 

[Belushi]

i suppose independence would see scotland cease being called one of the home nations in football, rugby etc

Ireland are still a Home Nation, in Rugby at least.