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il virus: covid-19 in italy

I don't know if today's figures are final yet, so take this with a high degree of caution, but potentially Italy has its second day of decline in new deaths, as well as the first day decline in a while of new cases.

1584987310275.png

Still a lot, and may well turn out to be nothing, but a little glimmer of hope.
 
Im really really hoping these temporary draconian measures will get the daily death toll and presumably infection rate down too. Requires some time for measures to work I guess.

Fuck sake cant believe this is what's coming here (or worse) because of shoddy inaction and mixed messages. :(
 
Riklet said:
Im really really hoping these temporary draconian measures will get the daily death toll and presumably infection rate down too. Requires some time for measures to work I guess.

Fuck sake cant believe this is what's coming here (or worse) because of shoddy inaction and mixed messages. :(
Click to expand...

The Imperial College document that popped out a week ago when they needed the science to explain a change in UK approach, suggested 3 weeks. Elsewhere I've heard figures of 2 weeks or even 10 days before it is hoped the effects of such measures would start to show up in data, but I dont know how accurate that is either, and it only represents the start of being able to measure an effect, not the effect being seen in full force.

Such an intensive policy is predicted to result in a reduction in critical care requirements from a peak approximately 3 weeks after the interventions are introduced and a decline thereafter while the intervention policies remain in place.
Click to expand...

(page 10 of https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf )

Italy, or at least certain parts of it, are probably just now at the stage where they are hoping to see signs in the data. And indeed they might have now seen such signs, but its too early to be confident about them, you need more than a single days figures to be sure there is a trend emerging.
 
Italy Calls General Strike: “Our Lives Are Worth More Than Your Profits”
Post on: March 25, 2020
La Izquierda Diario Argentina
Although Italy is on lockdown, many non-essential sectors are still going to work. Today a general strike is being called to protest the government’s insistence on maintaining “business as usual” in the face of a devastating pandemic.

www.leftvoice.org

Italy Calls General Strike: “Our Lives Are Worth More Than Your Profits” - Left Voice

Although Italy is on lockdown, many non-essential sectors are still going to work. Today a general strike is being called to protest the government's insistence on maintaining "business as usual" in the face of a devastating pandemic.
www.leftvoice.org www.leftvoice.org
 
I am feeling a bit like this here in the UK, a lot of management are keeping their companies going rather than shutting down to let their workforce stay at home furloughed. The workers are still at risk when they are at work as 6ft social distancing is not always possible, anyhow it is more risky to be mixing at work than it would be to be home. Many of these companies are not essential by any means.
 
weltweit said:
I am feeling a bit like this here in the UK, a lot of management are keeping their companies going rather than shutting down to let their workforce stay at home furloughed. The workers are still at risk when they are at work as 6ft social distancing is not always possible, anyhow it is more risky to be mixing at work than it would be to be home. Many of these companies are not essential by any means.
Click to expand...
fucking aye!

Although we're good with our social distancing, nice and isolated lab in a cow shed on a farm. But I'm all up for a mass strike! (have been ready to quit since the beginning of feb) If we do go into a proper lock down, all the stuff I've made will probably go out of date anyway, depending on how long this drags out.
 
xes said:
fucking aye!

Although we're good with our social distancing, nice and isolated lab in a cow shed on a farm. But I'm all up for a mass strike! (have been ready to quit since the beginning of feb) If we do go into a proper lock down, all the stuff I've made will probably go out of date anyway, depending on how long this drags out.
Click to expand...

are you working in a secret meth lab?:D
 
weltweit said:
I am feeling a bit like this here in the UK, a lot of management are keeping their companies going rather than shutting down to let their workforce stay at home furloughed. The workers are still at risk when they are at work as 6ft social distancing is not always possible, anyhow it is more risky to be mixing at work than it would be to be home. Many of these companies are not essential by any means.
Click to expand...

We're a manufacture that supplies into the construction industry. We're still open because building sites are open and if sites are open they need materials to build with. Bit of a weird situation.
 
Teaboy said:
We're a manufacture that supplies into the construction industry. We're still open because building sites are open and if sites are open they need materials to build with. Bit of a weird situation.
Click to expand...
Aha, yes I hear construction workers are filling the tubes in London.

I suppose if there isn't a good reason to close, you go on.

We are going on though if we had a couple of cases within the workforce we would almost certainly close.
 
Last edited:
mauvais said:
I don't know if today's figures are final yet, so take this with a high degree of caution, but potentially Italy has its second day of decline in new deaths, as well as the first day decline in a while of new cases.
Click to expand...
:confused: There was a decline in the number of cases two days running on the 22nd and 23rd (EDIT: or 23rd/24th depending on how you count).
 
redsquirrel said:
:confused: There was a decline in the number of cases two days running on the 22nd and 23rd (EDIT: or 23rd/24th depending on how you count).
Click to expand...
I guess at that point I looked at a graph which hadn't been updated yet. Yes, it was the second day of decline in new cases.

It's especially hard to draw conclusions from the last few days but hopefully it's plateaued. Certainly not currently seeing more exponential growth.
 
mauvais said:
I guess at that point I looked at a graph which hadn't been updated yet. Yes, it was the second day of decline in new cases.

It's especially hard to draw conclusions from the last few days but hopefully it's plateaued. Certainly not currently seeing more exponential growth.
Click to expand...
Yes not disputing the substantive point just being pedantic/wondering if I had read something wrong.
 
This article suggests Italy is heavily undercounting the numbers dying - expect we'll have a similar issue here?

www.corriere.it

«The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers»

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31
www.corriere.it www.corriere.it
 
killer b said:
This article suggests Italy is heavily undercounting the numbers dying - expect we'll have a similar issue here?

www.corriere.it

«The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers»

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31
www.corriere.it www.corriere.it
Click to expand...
Yes we probably will, for a multitude of different reasons. Sadly.
 
Cheers Flavour Mrs T is everything Italian lately and will probably donate a Euro or 2. She has also said, when possible, our next holiday should be somewhere in Italy also.
btw. where are you based?
 
Some analysis of the Italian response.

hbr.org

Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus

Policymakers in many parts of Europe and the United States are struggling to bring the rapidly spreading Covid-19 pandemic under control. In doing so, they are repeating many of the mistakes made in Italy, where the pandemic turned into a disaster. A major contributing factor was the...
hbr.org hbr.org
Certainly, there are valuable lessons to be learned from the approaches of China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, which were able to contain the contagion fairly early. But sometimes the best practices can be found just next door. Because the Italian health care system is highly decentralized, different regions tried different policy responses. The most notable example is the contrast between the approaches taken by Lombardy and Veneto, two neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic profiles.

Lombardy, one Europe’s wealthiest and most productive areas, has been disproportionately hit by Covid-19. As of March 26, it held the grim record of nearly 35,000 novel coronavirus cases and 5,000 deaths in a population of 10 million. Veneto, by contrast, fared significantly better, with 7,000 cases and 287 deaths in a population of 5 million, despite experiencing sustained community spread early on.

The trajectories of these two regions have been shaped by a multitude of factors outside the control of policymakers, including Lombardy’s greater population density and higher number of cases when the crisis erupted. But it’s becoming increasingly apparent that different public health choices made early in the cycle of the pandemic also had an impact.

Specifically, while Lombardy and Veneto applied similar approaches to social distancing and retail closures, Veneto took a much more proactive tack towards the containment of the virus. Veneto’s strategy was multi-pronged:

  • Extensive testing of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases early on.
  • Proactive tracing of potential positives. If someone tested positive, everyone in that patient’s home as well as their neighbors were tested. If testing kits were unavailable, they were self-quarantined.
  • A strong emphasis on home diagnosis and care. Whenever possible, samples were collected directly from a patient’s home and then processed in regional and local university labs.
  • Specific efforts to monitor and protect health care and other essential workers. They included medical professionals, those in contact with at-risk populations (e.g., caregivers in nursing homes), and workers exposed to the public (e.g., supermarket cashiers, pharmacists, and protective services staff).
Following the guidance from public health authorities in the central government, Lombardy opted instead for a more conservative approach to testing. On a per capita basis, it has so far conducted half of the tests conducted in Veneto and had a much stronger focus only on symptomatic cases — and has so far made limited investments in proactive tracing, home care and monitoring, and protection of health care workers.

The set of policies enacted in Veneto are thought to have considerably reduced the burden on hospitals and minimized the risk of Covid-19 spreading in medical facilities, a problem that has greatly impacted hospitals in Lombardy.The fact that different policies resulted in different outcomes across otherwise similar regions should have been recognized as a powerful learning opportunity from the start. The findings emerging from Veneto could have been used to revisit regional and central policies early on. Yet, it is only in recent days, a full month after the outbreak in Italy, that Lombardy and other regions are taking steps to emulate some of the aspects of the “Veneto approach,” which include pressuring the central government to help them boost their diagnostic capacity.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
zahir said:
Some analysis of the Italian response.

hbr.org

Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus

Policymakers in many parts of Europe and the United States are struggling to bring the rapidly spreading Covid-19 pandemic under control. In doing so, they are repeating many of the mistakes made in Italy, where the pandemic turned into a disaster. A major contributing factor was the...
hbr.org hbr.org
Click to expand...

Those sound like some of the most vital lessons that should already have been learnt from elsewhere, but werent because of stupid bullshit involving silly mental notions of those places being 'far away and different'.

Hopefully countries will listen to those lessons this time because they are from a country in Europe (eliminating the aforementioned bullshit) and also crucially we get to see the results of two very different approaches within the same country, eliminating a further host of potential 'but what about... in that country' excuses for thinking the lessons might somehow not apply to the UK and elsewhere.

Unfortunately we obviously cannot travel backwards in time so that we could take the Veneto approach instead of the Lombardy one. But I hope something can still be improved in future by learning the lessons anyway.
 
Although I must point out having said that, that I repeatedly call for people to see whether the advantages gained in those places that did proper testing, tracing and quarantine, are able to stand the test of time. But often those other places are countries with less than full lockdown, complicating the issue. So I will be recording certain data from the daily numbers on Lombardy and Veneto so I can see certain things in those places evolve over time, and if I see anything of note I shall mention it here. I was meaning to look at some regional data anyway, because the numbers for Italy as a whole are taking a dreadfully long time to show hugely promising signs.
 
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