il virus: covid-19 in italy

[elbows]

From the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52163523

Italy's Lombardy residents required to wear masks

Residents in the northern Italian region of Lombardy will now be required to wear protective masks or cover their faces when they go outside.
The new measure comes into effect on Sunday and will last until 13 April.
The ordinance from the region's President Attilio Fontana follows similar guidelines in other northern regions, Veneto and Alto Adige, where residents must wear masks when shopping in stores and at markets.
The whole of Italy is in lockdown, but Lombardy - the epicentre of the virus in Europe - has passed particularly tight restrictions on movement and business.

Intensive care numbers finally moved in the right direction with todays numbers, although it will have to continue that trend on a more sustained basis before I get too carried away. Here is some data, its only a subset of the total available but there were too many regions and figures for me to track them all over time.

 

[smokedout]

Italy seeing the lowest rate of new infections today since the 13th March, down to 3039, plus the fourth consecutive day's fall in the number of people on intensive care.

Just posting because it's a bit of good news, but also because this reporting in The Guardian which suggests a net fall in cases overall is complete bollocks unless I'm missing something, as it seems to have been every day for Italy's figures recently.

The raw data is here, the worldmeters site seems to be reporting it accurately, as are other some other news sources, although worldmeters seem to be reporting different figures for Spain to everyone else which is slightly confusing.

 

[elbows]

Italy seeing the lowest rate of new infections today since the 13th March, down to 3039, plus the fourth consecutive day's fall in the number of people on intensive care.

Just posting because it's a bit of good news, but also because this reporting in The Guardian which suggests a net fall in cases overall is complete bollocks unless I'm missing something, as it seems to have been every day for Italy's figures recently.

The raw data is here, the worldmeters site seems to be reporting it accurately, as are other some other news sources, although worldmeters seem to be reporting different figures for Spain to everyone else which is slightly confusing.

I figured out how they got it all wrong.

They said: "New cases rose by 0.9% to 880"

Where did they get the 880 from? I worked it out, they subtracted yesterdays number of currently positive cases (93187) from todays (94067).

Which means they should actually have said "Number of cases currently positive rose by 880". And they would need that number to be a fall, a negative number, not a positive rise, in order to make their subsequent claim.

 

[elbows]

This is what the intensive care numbers for Italy so far look like when graphed.

 

[Flavour]

Conte is talking about allowing bookshops to open from next week (just bookshops!) the gradual reopening might take a while

 

[weltweit]

This is what the intensive care numbers for Italy so far look like when graphed.

View attachment 205751

elbows I am astonished that the trend is so clear without any daily abberations.

 

[elbows]

elbows I am astonished that the trend is so clear without any daily abberations.

Well I suppose they dont have the same reporting delays and complications that deaths do, thats one of the reasons I tried to look at them when available.

They are a complicated number in some ways though, in the sense that, how can I put it, they are a combination of people entering and leaving intensive care, and there is more than one way to leave.

If I zoom in on one region, Lombardy, then you can see some small variations in recent daily numbers in intensive care that mean the graph for that region isnt quite the perfect shape that surprised you, but its still the same trend.

 

[elbows]

A couple more caveats. Hopefully none of the intensive care data I ever look at shows an intensive care system hitting capacity, or losing capacity, but it would be remiss of me not to consider the possibility in general before making too many assumptions about what story I'm seeing in the data.

When looking at certain countries data, I also need to keep in mind the possibility of some patients having been moved abroad for treatment, as we have seen Germany take some cases from other EU countries recently. This is probably not a large enough phenomenon to skew numbers much, but again its something I have to keep in mind.

Finally, when comparing different countries and considering what stage their local epidemics are at, I suppose I need to consider how their hospitalisation and intensive care policies may affect intensive care levels. I dont think this is something I can adjust the numbers in some systematic way to take account of, its just another thing to keep in mind.

Thats not to say I can take no cheer from anywhere that is showing a decline in these numbers, I can. But I wouldnt want to make a mistake by omitting these general cautions and caveats, even though I have no particular reason to think of them in regards Italy and the above data at this time.

 

[weltweit]

elbows I just posted a link in the USA thread that NY are asking for people who have recovered from covid-19 to give blood to potentially be used to help people still infected. Have you seen any similar initiatives elsewhere?

 

[elbows]

Happily some of the news stories about this use of convalescent plasma feature photographs which are captioned as follows, so I dont have to moan at you for asking about it on a thread about Italy!

A patient who recovered from covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, has plasma taken on Monday at a hospital in Pavia, Italy. The blood, rich in coronavirus antibodies, will be used to try to treat others

‘This could be revolutionary’: Stamford Health begins antibody treatment for coronavirus

Stamford Health is conducting Connecticut’s first clinical trial, and Nuvance Health is...

www.newstimes.com

 

[elbows]

The number of cases in ICU in Lombardy has fallen below 1000 for the first time in a month, so here are a couple of ICU graphs.

Lombardy:


Italy:

 

[elbows]

Next phase plans announced:

Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has given a televised address outlining how the country will begin "Phase Two" of lifting its coronavirus lockdown.

Restrictions on daily life will start to be eased from 4 May, he said, and people will be allowed to visit their relatives in small numbers, in masks.

Parks will reopen, but schools will not restart classes until September.

• People will be allowed to move around their own regions - but not between different regions
• Funerals are set to resume, but with a maximum of 15 people attending, and ideally to be carried out outdoors
• Individual athletes can resume training, and people can do sports not only in the vicinity of their homes but in wider areas
• Bars and restaurants will reopen for takeaway service from 4 May (not just delivery as now), but food must be consumed at home or in an office
• Hairdressers, beauty salons, bars and restaurants are expected to reopen for dine-in service from 1 June
• More retail shops not already opened under the earliest easing measures will reopen on 18 May - along with museums and libraries
• Sports teams will also be able to hold group training from 18 May

There was no announcement on the possibility of Italy's premier football league Serie A resuming, even behind closed doors.

Mr Conte stressed that social distancing measures would need to continue for months to come, and said church services would remain banned. He urged people to stay a metre (3ft) away from each other.

"If we do not respect the precautions the curve will go up, the deaths will increase, and we will have irreversible damage to our economy," the prime minister said. "If you love Italy, keep your distance."

Coronavirus: Italy's PM outlines lockdown easing measures

Curbs will be relaxed from 4 May as the country records its lowest daily virus death toll in weeks.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Flavour]

Yeah there's still a lot of vagueness in the new measures though in terms of what we can and can't do and lots will be left up to the mood and disposition of the cop who happens to stop you - if you get fined or not. for example i want to go for a walk in the mountains (in my own region) - am I allowed? it's not clear

 

[elbows]

Some excess mortality analysis for Italy in March is now available:

Considering the month of March, the average national level shows an increase in deaths due to the total causes of 49.4%. If we take as a reference the period from the first Covid-19 death reported by the Covid-19 Integrated Surveillance System (20 February) until March 31st, deaths increase from 65,592 (average period 2015-2019) to 90,946, in 2020. The excess of the deaths is 25,354 units, 54% of these are Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (13,710). Because of the strong concentration of the phenomenon in some areas of the country, data referring to the average national level "flatten" the size of the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on total mortality.

91% of the excess mortality registered at the average national level in March 2020 is concentrated in the areas of high spread of the epidemic: 3,271 municipalities, 37 Northern provinces plus Pesaro and Urbino. In all of these provinces, deaths from all causes have more than doubled compared to the 2015-2019 average for the month of March. If we consider the period from February 20th to March 31st, deaths have risen from: 26,218 to 49,351 (+ 23,133); just over the half of this increase (52%) are deaths reported by the Covid-19 Integrated Surveillance System (12,156). Within this group, the most affected provinces by the epidemic recorded three-digit percentage increase of deaths in March 2020, compared to 2015-2019 average: Bergamo (568%), Cremona (391% ), Lodi (371%), Brescia (291%), Piacenza (264%), Parma (208%), Lecco (174%), Pavia (133%), Mantua (122%), Pesaro and Urbino (120% ).

In the areas with medium spread of epidemic (1,778 municipalities, 35 provinces mainly located in the Center-North), deaths increase due to the total causes in the period from February 20th to March 31st is much more contained: from 17,317 to 19,743 (2,426 more than the 2025-2019 average); 47% are attributed to Covid-19 positive deaths (1,151). Finally, in the areas with a low spread of epidemic (1,817 municipalities, 34 provinces mostly located in the Center and in the South), deaths of the month of March 2020 are on average 1.8% lower than that of the last five years.

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Istat-ISS_-eng.pdf

 

[Tankus]

Did see somewhere that the virus is not stable and is mutating to be sufficienty different

elbows I just posted a link in the USA thread that NY are asking for people who have recovered from covid-19 to give blood to potentially be used to help people still infected. Have you seen any similar initiatives elsewhere?

That there may not be immunity after catching it first time around...

 

[2hats]

That there may not be immunity after catching it first time around...

It might be even more interesting than that - perhaps behave somewhat like dengue - where a significant proportion of those with an immune response from an initial infection suffer a far more severe response on later re-infection.

 

[hash tag]

Trying to stay awake listening to a boring footie match last night I only had half an eye on this whilst Mrs Tag watched it. Italy were clearly ahead of us and we could clearly have learnt from their experience. Very moving programme.
Italy's Frontline: A Doctor's Diary: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000kjtd via @bbciplayer

 

[elbows]

The number of patients in intensive care in Italy finally fell below 100 on the 26th June. From a peak of 4068 on April 3rd.

 

[springy]

I’m glad to hear that Italy managed to control the virus but the number of active cases is still pretty high compared to other countries in Europe…now the Italian government has to be really cautious with their measures they are implementing. In other European countries, cases are again increasing (especially in Eastern Europe where the virus did not circulate so much…until now) but measures are being revoked…if there will be another lockdown in Italy, I can’t imagine they’ll get over it without stumbling into the next crises…namely an economic crises…and their economic is already seriously affected by Covid…

 

[Flavour]

springy don't worry there'll be an enormous economic catastrophe anyway, whether there's a second lockdown or not. for now i don't see it on the cards but depends how things develop. i'm relatively optimistic but also can see how people are throwing caution to the wind and fear it won't go away but thankfully most people are distancing and wearing masks so it will be slower and the "curve" should hopefully stay low enough for it not to put hospitals into another crisis of lack of beds etc as we saw in march and april

 

[elbows]

Looks like they are going to do sewage surveillance. I machine translated a bit from the official info:

The samples taken before entering the purifiers of urban centers can be used as a "spy" for the circulation of the virus in the population. The first analyzes have already made it possible to detect SARS-COV-2 RNA in various areas of the national territory during the epidemic; moreover, through retrospective investigations on archive samples, they revealed the circulation of the virus in some areas of the North in periods preceding the notification of the first cases of COVID-19.

The work program is divided into two phases:

• the first phase, on a voluntary basis and self-financed by the project participants, will start in July - will be focused on a pilot network of priority sites, such as tourist locations .
• the second phase, which can be activated from October on the basis of available resources, provides for a nationwide extended surveillance network, focused on urban aggregates , with the possibility of carrying out flexible and widespread monitoring as well (such as city districts and airport purification sites), functional to the health prevention needs of the various territorial areas, based on the epidemiological scenarios.

Trying it in tourist locations in July is a very good idea.

From: ISS, al via la rete ‘sentinella’ di sorveglianza epidemiologica del coronavirus nelle acque reflue

 

[Flavour]

Thanks for this elbows. New cases and deaths remain reassuringly low for now.

 

[frogwoman]

Unfortunately my mum's boyfriend who lives in Italy has come down with likely covid and is not very well. He's 72 so hoping that he can get decent medical treatment if needed now the hospitals aren't swamped.

 

[Flavour]

which region of italy frogwoman?

 

[frogwoman]

which region of italy frogwoman?

Milan. However he got ill shortly after going on a trip elsewhere in the region and went to several restaurants

 

[Flavour]

Milan. However he got ill shortly after going on a trip elsewhere in the region and went to several restaurants

Ah. the worst affected region by far. But also the richest and best-equipped.

 

[zahir]

 

[frogwoman]

Ah. the worst affected region by far. But also the richest and best-equipped.

Apparently he can't get a test because he's not sick enough and 'they don't think he has it' bit worried as he's been ill and largely stuck in bed for over a week now.

 

[JimW]

Berlusconi tests positive. He's 83 now: Silvio Berlusconi: Former Italy PM tests positive for coronavirus

 

[elbows]

When this thread was new one of the themes that came up a few times was how much better Veneto did with their response than regions like Lombardy.

I said I would keep an eye on it to see how they did over time. Well, I havent had time to follow too closely but I did start collecting regional data again recently and just from that data it looks like Veneto have had problems recently, various numbers not looking so good for the last month or so. But I havent gone searching for any stories about it. Anyone know anything about this?