il virus: covid-19 in italy

[killer b]

That haunted look is on Johnson's face for a reason y'know. He can see it coming now.

 

[elbows]

Due to manual processing and range of data sources used and timing and quirks of different countries data publishing, there may be individual errors in this data. But even if such errors exist, the trends are clear enough.

 

[weltweit]

Disturbing figures elbows certainly.

 

[elbows]

Compiling them is pretty disturbing too, I'm not sure how much longer I shall continue to do that, it sucks. RIP all the people who this virus killed so far.

 

[Sue]

(((elbows)))

 

[killer b]

It does at least look like the numbers could be stabilising in italy? How long have they been locked down for now?

 

[MrSki]

Yeah every death has loads of relatives & friends who are also affected. Won't be any funerals to say a proper goodbye either.

 

[elbows]

Thanks Sue

This article that I was already in the process of posting about when I saw your post appear should give some clues with that killer b.

The piece takes a look at whether its possible to work out when their epidemic might peak, when they will get to see the effects of their lockdown, and some problems with trying to make a national prediction when different localities are at very different stages:

https://www.thelocal.it/20200318/when-will-the-coronavirus-epidemic-in-italy-peak

Italy's National Research Council (CNR) expects a "significant reduction" in the growth rate of new infections in the Lombardy region around Milan by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

The northern region of around 10 million people has been at the epicentre of the crisis since the start, reporting two thirds of all the deaths in the nation of 60 million.

Noting that infections are starting to rise in the south, where many Italians moved to after the start of containment measures in the north, the CNR predicts that figures across Italy will only stabilise between March 25 and April 15.

"Talking about a peak at a national level simply makes no sense," said Giovanni Rezza, who heads the infectious diseases department at Italian National Institute of Health (ISS).

"It is impossible to make forecasts because the epidemic is appearing like spots on a leopard," in places and not all at once, Rezza told Italian radio.

He said the worst was over in the province of Lodi, where the virus first appeared to the southeast of Milan, while in Brescia and Bergamo to Milan's east the situation was getting progressively worse.

Theres a bunch of lockdown dates and other modelling in that article that I havent quoted.

 

[killer b]

Cheers, that helps. So a lockdown of London this weekend and the rest of the country sometime next week - which is what the signs are atm I think - more or less follows the same pattern as Italy too. erk.

 

[mauvais]

View attachment 202391
Due to manual processing and range of data sources used and timing and quirks of different countries data publishing, there may be individual errors in this data. But even if such errors exist, the trends are clear enough.

I found this a bit hard to gauge so here's the daily increases based on your data (assuming I've not made my own mistakes):



There's an obvious trend, of course, but not enough data yet really. Then again, when is there?

 

[Maltin]

Due to manual processing and range of data sources used and timing and quirks of different countries data publishing, there may be individual errors in this data. But even if such errors exist, the trends are clear enough.

Thanks for posting. I had also started to track this data to compare countries, including non European ones too. I think one thing to factor in is population size. So although on totals, the UK is tracking 2 weeks behind Italy, as a percentage of population size, it’s doing comparatively better, but all very marginal. (UK has 12% bigger population that Italy).

The country where the comparable daily numbers are very concerning is Spain, which has a population 80% that of Italy and has 4 times as many deaths percentage wise as Italy did after 16 days of people dying from the virus (767 v 233). Hopefully the measures they have taken recently will reduce the growth in the number of deaths there over the next few weeks.

 

[elbows]

Thanks for posting. I had also started to track this data to compare countries, including non European ones too. I think one thing to factor in is population size. So although on totals, the UK is tracking 2 weeks behind Italy, as a percentage of population size, it’s doing comparatively better, but all very marginal. (UK has 12% bigger population that Italy).

The country where the comparable daily numbers are very concerning is Spain, which has a population 80% that of Italy and has 4 times as many deaths percentage wise as Italy did after 16 days of people dying from the virus (767 v 233). Hopefully the measures they have taken recently will reduce the growth in the number of deaths there over the next few weeks.

Spains numbers are of increasing concern, yes.

To be honest I've avoided bothering to allow for population size and a whole bunch of other factors because there are so many, and because there are also reasons why the recorded numbers of deaths wont be the same as actual deaths (eg earlier stories about Italy not counting cases that have died at home because they arent testing those cases). Variation in testing regimes and capacity could make quite a difference, along with other reasons for death reporting variations.

One of the disturbing things is differing levels of healthcare and intensive care capacity. The north of Italy was considered a good example of healthcare in regards that sort of thing before their epidemic took hold, so there is concern that other countries may experience worse outcomes. But then there are other differences between countries to consider, not just the age demographics but also where people in those age ranges live, is it in institutions that are vulnerable to outbreaks, or at home with extended families where there is more opportunity for regular spread between the generations.

 

[weltweit]

Reuters reporting that Italy is closing its parks - people wanting to exercise have to do it around their homes.

 

[hash tag]

And dogs?

 

[agricola]

And dogs?

you'd have to circle them for ages to get a decent walk in

 

[magneze]

Parks too. At some point there must be diminishing returns. Unless parks are packed out.

 

[hash tag]

Not to mention trying to get them to keep still for a while.

 

[klang]

Not to mention trying to get them to keep still for a while.

yes, badly trained parks are a menace.

 

[tommers]

And dogs?

Spin classes.

 

[hash tag]

Everyone is barking I say, barking

 

[Maggot]

Parks too. At some point there must be diminishing returns. Unless parks are packed out.

My friends in Rome posted a video of them exercising their dog in the local park yesterday, and it was deserted. No idea if this is representative.
(it might have been empty cos they were the only people going out in the midday sun).

 

[magneze]

My friends in Rome posted a video of them exercising their dog in the local park yesterday, and it was deserted. No idea if this is representative.
(it might have been empty cos they were the only people going out in the midday sun).

I take back my comment anyway. Richmond Park was heaving today so I can kinda understand closing parks now.

 

[hash tag]

I imagine there were many cyclists in Richmond Park today. We saw many heading thataway.

 

[magneze]

I imagine there were many cyclists in Richmond Park today. We saw many heading thataway.

And people and cars. Queues for every car park.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There was me thinking this was a thread about Italy.

 

[hash tag]

Sorry, this virus is spreading everywhere

 

[cupid_stunt]

No total for the whole of Italy yet, but just the Lombardy region has reported 546 new deaths in the last 24 hours, taking their total to 3,095.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Just watching the latest news from Italy, it’s fucking bad, really bad! They are saying now that 30-40 year olds are now dying as no hospital space to save them.

 

[Flavour]

No total for the whole of Italy yet, but just the Lombardy region has reported 546 new deaths in the last 24 hours, taking their total to 3,095.

Yeah, total will be 600-700 i think. Lombardy nhs is so fucked. It's quite amazing how slowly it's spreading in some of the areas relatively close to Lombardy though (Aosta, Liguria, southern Piedmont - admit that northern and Eastern Piedmont is pretty fucked too)

 

[Mr.Bishie]

793 deaths in last 24 hours!! Fuck!!