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il virus: covid-19 in italy

Though the news is obviously not as concentrated on Italy any more, what with the (completely predictable) explosion of cases in other countries, lockdown measures in place from San Francisco to San Sebastian, it's heartening at least to see some other countries taking steps to prevent the spread of the virus before it gets to Italy-levels of disaster. And a reminder today that it really is a disaster in the worst affected parts of Italy. This report from the Washington Post on the situation in Bergamo is perhaps a little melodramatic but the message is valid.

 
Flavour said:
Though the news is obviously not as concentrated on Italy any more, what with the (completely predictable) explosion of cases in other countries, lockdown measures in place from San Francisco to San Sebastian, it's heartening at least to see some other countries taking steps to prevent the spread of the virus before it gets to Italy-levels of disaster. And a reminder today that it really is a disaster in the worst affected parts of Italy. This report from the Washington Post on the situation in Bergamo is perhaps a little melodramatic but the message is valid.

Click to expand...
Grim. All those poeople dying alone, unable to see their loved ones.
 
Of considerable interest:

www.irishtimes.com

Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero

Expert urges all countries to ramp up the numbers of people being screened
www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com

An infection control experiment that was rolled out in a small Italian community at the start of Europe’s coronavirus crisis has stopped all new infections in the town that was at the centre of the country’s outbreak.

Through testing and retesting of all 3,300 inhabitants of the town of Vò, near Venice, regardless of whether they were exhibiting symptoms, and rigorous quarantining of their contacts once infection was confirmed, health authorities have been able to completely stop the spread of the illness there.
Click to expand...

“In the UK, there are a whole lot of infections that are completely ignored,” Prof Crisanti said. “We were able to contain the outbreak here because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” he said of the Vò approach. “That is what makes the difference.”
Click to expand...

The first testing round, carried out on the town’s entire population in late February, found 3 per cent of the population infected, though half of the carriers had no symptoms. After isolating all those infected, the second testing round about 10 days later showed the infection rate had dropped to 0.3 per cent.

Importantly, however, this second round identified at least six individuals who had the virus but no symptoms, meaning they could be quarantined. “If they hadn’t been identified, the infection would have resumed,” explained Prof Crisanti.
Click to expand...
 
Riklet said:
Seems like some positive signs in terms of cases/deaths stabilising now. Flavour?
Click to expand...

I'm not looking at number of confirmed positive cases, but the number of cases in intensive care has doubled in 6 days (11/3/20 = 1028, 17/3/20 = 2060), and the number of deaths tripled (11/3/20 = 827, 17/3/20 = 2503).
 
It's not much consolation but I think the rate of increase is not itself increasing - so it may no longer be exponential here. But that being said, as elbows rightly mentions, the number of severe cases in hospital is reaching new peaks and the relatively high increase in deaths compared to ICU is because the limited number of medical staff just don't have enough time and equipment to care for everyone.

mackuba.eu

Coronavirus charts

Charts showing coronavirus growth in each country separately
mackuba.eu
 
Some big numbers regardling the lockdown/law side of things:

www.theguardian.com

Italy charges more than 40,000 people with violating lockdown

Minority continue to flout decree as nation records biggest daily rise in coronavirus deaths
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Italian authorities have pressed charges against more than 40,000 people for violating the lockdown imposed to contain the coronavirus, according to figures from the interior ministry.
Click to expand...

Police stopped and checked 700,000 citizens between 11 and 17 March, 43,000 of whom were found to have violated the decree, which also ordered the closing of shops, bars, restaurants, gyms and swimming pools.
Click to expand...
 
I think for some people its the reality of being on total lockdown. And remember - most Italians dont live in houses but in pretty small flats and probs spend more time outside than your average Brit. Not to make excuses for people flouting the rules, I full support temporary authoritarian measures, bang those fucking priests up for sure.

If this goes on a long time there will have to be advice and help digitally to allow people to cope. To vent frustrations. To consider how they can reorganise shared space to get privacy or go about their routines.

The latest jump in deaths is very shocking and worrying, how can UK government see that and still be letting quite a few selfish cunts carry on as normal here.
 
cupid_stunt said:
FFS, what is wrong with people? :facepalm:
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It'll be the same here, probably worse. Despite the obvious risks to their fellow humans and themselves, forcing people to stay in what might be daylight-starved small flats for two weeks or longer is going to send some people right off the rails while others may be escaping abusive partners or violence in the house.

But knowingly infected people going shopping can go fuck themselves.
 
It sounds like the death toll might be even higher than reported with a big spike in deaths at care homes which are not being included in figures as they weren't hospitalized and hence not tested for the virus,.


www.reuters.com

Uncounted among coronavirus victims, deaths sweep through Italy's nursing homes

As the official death toll from Italy's coronavirus outbreak passes 2,500, a silent surge in fatalities in nursing homes, where dozens of patients a day are dying untested for the virus, suggests the real total may be higher.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
italy deaths will overtake china tomorrow at this rate. terrible.
in defense of the people - i'm sure many of these fines given by the police were the cops being dicks and not accepting the persons' excuse for being out - there have been several instances reported where cops stopped people on their way to a food shop and the cops told them to go to another, closer shop. if you give them any sign of resistance at all they will fine you. but even these 40,000 fines (200 euro each) is only 8 million euro raised, barely a dent in the figure they'll have to spend to keep the economy afloat in coming months. and the italian government's rescue package is way less generous than other EU countries, from what I've seen. just €25 billion announced so far - it's nothing.
 
Really disturbing

Italy has overtaken China as the country with the most coronavirus-related deaths in the world after reporting 3,405 fatalities from the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a stark illustration of how Europe has become the new epicentre of the pandemic, Italian officials reported 427 additional deaths on the same day Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first identified, recorded no new infections.

UN and Italian health authorities have cited a variety of reasons for Italy's toll, most notably its large elderly population, which is the second oldest in the world.



The vast majority of people who have died in Italy - 87 per cent, as of Thursday - have been older than 70 years old.

Italy, with its population of 60 million people, has now recorded about 150 more deaths than China, which has a population of more than 1 billion.
Click to expand...

www.independent.co.uk

Italy coronavirus death toll overtakes China

Officials report 427 new deaths on same day Chinese city records no new infections
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
weltweit said:
Yep, it is grim.

Lets just hope that those who say UK is just a week or two behind are wrong.
Click to expand...

Since its such a critical issue, I feel the need to be pedantic about that. Nobody I know of is claiming a week. 2 weeks is the claim. The number of UK deaths is still consistent with that, although it is always possible it could start to diverge at any point from what Italys was 2 weeks earlier. In just a few more days I might be able to say something new about that, cant tell yet.
 
elbows said:
Since its such a critical issue, I feel the need to be pedantic about that. Nobody I know of is claiming a week. 2 weeks is the claim. The number of UK deaths is still consistent with that, although it is always possible it could start to diverge at any point from what Italys was 2 weeks earlier. In just a few more days I might be able to say something new about that, cant tell yet.
Click to expand...
elbows you may not be saying that we are x days or y weeks behind Italy but those sorts of comments do appear on the news media from time to time, I am pretty sure I have heard it today even. Italy with its 60 odd million population now has more fatalities that China with its massive population, were the UK and France and Spain and Germany etc all to follow Italy, the numbers of European deaths would make China seem like a tiny thing.
 
weltweit said:
elbows you may not be saying that we are x days or y weeks behind Italy but those sorts of comments do appear on the news media from time to time, I am pretty sure I have heard it today even. Italy with its 60 odd million population now has more fatalities that China with its massive population, were the UK and France and Spain and Germany etc all to follow Italy, the numbers of European deaths would make China seem like a tiny thing.
Click to expand...

I am saying 2 weeks! And that if we diverge away from that at some point, I will say so as soon as I can. So far, the 2 week thing is still on track, just like it has been for all the time people have been saying it. At this stage I am only using confirmed case deaths as the measure (personally Im not even looking at total confirmed cases right now). I was just telling you that 1 week is not what people are saying, 2 weeks is.

I will post a table shortly that shows the number of detected deaths in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the UK over a range of time and then you can see for yourself how they are progressing along similar lines.
 
welters, you've been reading some of the most on-point analysis available on this for weeks and week (cheers elbows ), you've seen the figures, you've seen the way things are progressing over and over and over again, and you've seen the totally inadequate response from the government - have you not actually taken any of it in?
 
killer b said:
welters, you've been reading some of the most on-point analysis available on this for weeks and week (cheers elbows ), you've seen the figures, you've seen the way things are progressing over and over and over again, and you've seen the totally inadequate response from the government - have you not actually taken any of it in?
Click to expand...
Indeed I have seen the government response and wished them to do more and sooner because I believed if they did we would not need to "follow Italy" .. Don't get me wrong, we may end up doing that in which case I would think that our government has failed to protect us, well failed to protect the victims at least.
 
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