how does North Korea 'end'?
- Thread starter Jon-of-arc
- Start date
TopCat
Putin fanboy
NK has moved a mid range missile to it's East Coast. This is more than mere rhetoric.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22027867
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22027867
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
It seems to be a variety of reasons.
A lot of it is for domestic consumption with KJU "making his mark" as a new a previously unproven leader. The plan looks to be to create tension in the short term to gain longer term advantage like the reduction of sanctions when they stand-down the threats. It's a dangerous game.
Their isolationism has also led them to behave differently to the rest of the world with their primary means of communication being militaristic rhetoric. Also in 1950 when NK invaded SK and started the Korean War they did it under the cover of "military exercises", so they may genuinely believe that the joint US/S.Korean military exercises that have been going on for years are a prelude to an invasion.
1%er
Well-Known Member
What do people expect from North Korea when the USA and South Korea are holding massive war games and joint military exercises in the region. North Korea warned them about it in February and now they have upped the rhetoric.
Anyone who lived through the cold war will remember this bullshit. Two things we all know for sure, it is always the USA that is involved and the USA are the only country that has used nuclear weapons.
The real danger here isn't nuclear weapons, it is a skirmish along the boarder that escalates into something bigger.
Something to read for our friends in the USA
and for balance, something to read for our brothers in North Korea
Anyone who lived through the cold war will remember this bullshit. Two things we all know for sure, it is always the USA that is involved and the USA are the only country that has used nuclear weapons.
The real danger here isn't nuclear weapons, it is a skirmish along the boarder that escalates into something bigger.
Something to read for our friends in the USA
and for balance, something to read for our brothers in North Korea
Gavin Bl
terrible awful baaad
the impression I got was that they tried detente, and their reward was a sunk destroyer and shelling of their territory. Whilst it is undoubtedly a dangerous situation, I can see why they feel that they need to take a harder line. Hopefully this particular phase of craziness will pass and some accomodation can be made.
I do see NK as almost totally different from the rest of the former communist bloc, the level of control and isolation seems far far worse - and so who knows what is going on in the heads of a third of fourth generation of completely brainwashed starving people. However it ends, I think one thing will be certain, millions of starving people will try to get the hell out....with all the associated chaos that might bring (not to play down the suffering of the starving of course)
Gavin Bl
terrible awful baaad
TBF, if I had North Korea on my doorstep, I'd want to keep my military in tip top shape, and show Pyongyang I wasn't going to have any shit.
1%er
Well-Known Member
I guess that would depend if you believe all the propaganda or not.
Yu_Gi_Oh
天天好心情
I don't know, in a lot of ways I blame Lee Myung-Bak. When he came to power in South Korea he abolished the Sunshine Policy. Things have been pretty shit since tbf. I think South Korea's right-wing leaders have been taking too hard a line for too long. Sadly they've just elected another right-winger, Park Geun-hye, who doesn't exactly have a great political family history, to say the least. For as long as South Korea are electing conservative leaders I think things with North Korea will stay bad.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
A bit simplistic that. The wargames have been going on forever and both sides are at it. NK does the same close to the SK border and in recent years is the only party to show naked aggression such nuke and missile testing and the sinking and shellings mentioned by Gavin above.
Speak for yourself if you mean the regime.
Yes. Like nuclear engagement.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
The South started that exchange of shell fire.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Depends how you look at it.
Again as part of "military exercises" S.Korea fired into waters (causing no damage or injuries) designated as theirs by the UN but that N.Korea dispute as their territory. North Korea responded by firing over 100 rockets onto an undisputedly South Korean island, killing half a dozen people and injuring a load more.
This gives you an idea of N.Korean thinking when it comes to maritime borders.
The blue "A" line is the UN designated Northern Limit Line; the red "B" line is what N.Korea claim (skirting around the islands that were agreed to remain under UN control in the 53 armistice).
The area in between is where it kicks off.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Yeah that's fair.
Gavin Bl
terrible awful baaad
You'd only need to believe quite a small amount of what is said to know you would have to be on your guard with NK as a neighbour.
It seems pretty clear that what's driving the current escalation of tension is North Korean politics, and IMO that is probably what will settle the crisis one way or another. No-one is likely to to launch a pre-emptive strike against NK, but if it does carry out its threats to attack South Korea, Japan or even the USA (although that's probably an empty threat) then there almost certainly will be a military response, whose scale will be determined primarily by how far the Americans think they can go without pissing the Chinese off too much.
Kim Jong Un is inexperienced, and in a weaker position than his father. Historically, NK has tended to use threats to win concessions or greater aid. If Kim can deliver that this time then his game of bluff will have worked and that will strengthen his domestic position. Problem is, it's clear that the Americans and others aren't going to play that game this time. So if Kim can't deliver, what then? Being seen to back down could damage him fatally, and it's not inconceivable that hardliners within the military could push him into a situation of having to start a war or face a coup, which is where the real danger lies. Either that, or a different and perhaps more moderate element within the regime could topple him. In the end, we don't really know enough about the workings of the regime and the factions within it - insofar as they exist - to judge.
It's all a bit redolent of the Cuban missile crisis, in a way, although a lot less scary as the chances of it spiralling into a major nuclear war are slim. Either way, it's all very unpredictable and could end quite quickly and potentially very nastily indeed for the Koreans on both sides of the border.
Kim Jong Un is inexperienced, and in a weaker position than his father. Historically, NK has tended to use threats to win concessions or greater aid. If Kim can deliver that this time then his game of bluff will have worked and that will strengthen his domestic position. Problem is, it's clear that the Americans and others aren't going to play that game this time. So if Kim can't deliver, what then? Being seen to back down could damage him fatally, and it's not inconceivable that hardliners within the military could push him into a situation of having to start a war or face a coup, which is where the real danger lies. Either that, or a different and perhaps more moderate element within the regime could topple him. In the end, we don't really know enough about the workings of the regime and the factions within it - insofar as they exist - to judge.
It's all a bit redolent of the Cuban missile crisis, in a way, although a lot less scary as the chances of it spiralling into a major nuclear war are slim. Either way, it's all very unpredictable and could end quite quickly and potentially very nastily indeed for the Koreans on both sides of the border.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
matched only by the holocaust? what about cambodia under pol pot, china under mao, the soviet union under stalin? are you often prone to hyperbole?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
never mind a major nuclear war, a minor nuclear war would be very nasty.
That's what I meant.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
pls in future say what you mean.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Its mad . Imagine if every year england and the united states launched massive war games simulating the invasion and destruction of an independent scotland with a Maggie Thatchere type leader spouting about pre emptive strikes and active deterrence.
That bitch in South Korea is portrayed in the west simply as "the first female president" while Kim is referred to as "the son of former dictator" . Shes the daughter of former military dictator Park Chun Hee http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung-hee
She heads up the political party the military dictatorship formed to stay in power . She came to power promising dialogue but once in power immediately engaged in sabre rattling against North Korea and joining the media in denouncing the previous government for being weak for not engaging in military confrontation with the north . Ever since she came to power she was seen by the north as someone intent on military confrontation . The north is being portrayed as the aggressor when in fact its been herself whos been sabre rattling repeatedly about taking pre emptive strikes against the north while directly engaged in a joint US SK simulated invasion while the US is buzzing DPRK with nuclear enabled bombers and all sorts of hardware .
At no stage in this confrontation was there any real evidence of a DPRK buildup of military forces in preparation to go anywhere whilst the yanks and their SK puppets were mobilising tens of thousands of troops and talking about premptive strikes and active deterrence . It was Park as well who was announcing SK troops now had the freedom to attack DPRK without recourse to any political considerations as and when they saw fit . In a military context where her regime is talking about pre emptive strikes and mobilising its entire armed forces alongside US military might .
Shes a Korean Maggie Thatcher, the bitch .
Anyways it looks like the DPRK have taken the correct course as it seems like the penny has dropped in Washington their show of strength hasnt worked and DPRK arent going to be cowed . Now theyre worried something serious might actually happen now those long range missiles are on the move and are starting to moderate their stance and ramp down the rhetoric.
Fuck off Picky. I'm not interested.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
grand. your further presence on this thread unnecessary then. but pls in future SAY WHAT YOU MEAN.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
sanctions have been ramped up against DPRK ostensibly in order to have it abandon its nuclear and weapons programme . Thats despite DPRK previously mothballing their nuclear plant and attempting to engage in talks the Bush administration simply ignored . In order for DPRK to enter into negotiations it has first to abandon its bargaining chips before theyre allowed to sit down at the negotiating table , effectively meaning there wont be any negotiations of substance as soon as they sit down . DPRK arent as daft as Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness who waltzed into that farce in the 90s . Thats simply not going to happen this time . But thats what the US and south Korean sabre rattling , military manouvres and sanctions are all about . To try and make that happen .
But its looking increasingly like the western brinkmanship has failed . Washington is starting to blink .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
youd nuke scotland from england . Interesting strategy . Not to mention incinerating all of DPRK because its leadership were nasty to people there .
That's precisely what isn't happening this time.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Hardly. They're increasing the militarisation of Guam that we know of, and almost certainly ramping up their capabilities elsewhere in the region.
likesfish
You can't park here sir
hey salmonds nuke probably wouldnt work and
its inthe third verse of the national anthem we cant help oursleves
Your killing fantasies are well fucked up. Get help.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Theyre bricking it
We take those threats seriously,” Hagel told students at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. "We are doing everything we can, working with the Chinese, others, to defuse that situation."
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