We're "not sure" what the shortage is going to be (could be as little as 15%, could be as high as 40%), at the moment, because we don't know whether some of our nuclear clunkers will be given another operating extension. As for renewables, if investment hadn't been pruned when most of the technologies were being developed, we'd be in a much better palce with them by now, but the good old British govt, it hasn't looked to the long-term in at least 30 years. All the tossers worry about is the time between now and the next general election, and fuck those of us who have to live in the real world.