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Greek elections

Teaboy said:
Poland. It may not have the economy size at the moment but it is without a doubt an extremely influential member of the EU. Needless to say the Euro is very unpopular there and despite being signed up to the idea of it, there is no way they are going to go near it for a long time, if ever.
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oh, ok. Sweden is in a similar position, obliged by treaty to join but opposed to doing so.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Isn't this the rub. Germany needs the euro too. It keeps them rich. A new drachma would quickly fall through the floor, but a new deutchmark would go through the roof.

Every time I go to Germany I'm struck by how low prices are for such a high-income country. That would change very quickly without the euro.
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A smaller Eurozone made up of former DM countries could devalue by inflating their economies but again that is a taboo course of action in German political circles for obvious historical reasons. There was a time in British politics when devaluing Sterling was some kind of loss of national face and prestige but even the Tories no longer believe in this foolishness.

The CDU also don't appear to be worry about the moral hazard caused by bailing out German banks who recklessly lent to Greece in the hope that nations pick up the tab if it went tits up. Instead they have taken a pragmatic view by buying up their debt, much of it via bailout loans to the Med countries.

newbie said:
oh, ok. Sweden is in a similar position, obliged by treaty to join but opposed to doing so.
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Sweden was not in a position to gain a Euro opt-out like the UK and Denmark. But has instead pulled a fast one after realising you had to go into an ERM for two years to be able to join. So it hasn't fixed its currency to the Euro. As neighbouring Finland is beginning to falter with an overvalued Euro they don't look likely to either.
 
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LiamO said:
I have not spoken to a single person in Ireland who does not admire what the Greeks have done - and only wish the lickspittle gombeens here had displayed the same amount of balls. I suspect that would be as true in Portugal and Spain too.
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The only two groups of people I come into contact with who are anti-Syriza are lawyers and economists. Says it all really.
 
This is a FB friend's reaction to the Greek 'no' vote (I think he works in finance or investment or something):

OXI (no) seems to be winning. I truly hope the voters have known what they're in for
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There is a role for quality media to explain things to the public as they are, based on facts and in clear terms.

Populist politicians know how to speak to the public and the ones that actually understand what is going on usually use complex language...
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I think introductory economics should be mandatory in school
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etc
 
Teaboy said:
Could you ask him whose version of economics we should all be taught at school? It's just that I've noticed that there is some disagreement amongst their community.
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Yes, I know he not a fan of Pikkety, Stiglitz and Krugman's various takes on the Greek crisis... I can't imagine he'd like David Harvey etc. much either.
 
Teaboy said:
I think you're right with this. I've been following as much as I can and now I really can't see any way out of this, I think Greece leaving the Euro is fast becoming inevitable and in doing so exposing just how fatally holed below the waterline the Euro is and has been from the start. Grim times ahead in the immediate future I fear.

I think the Euro will probably survive in some form for a handful of countries but it's hard to see much of future for it, particularly when two of the EU's biggest players don't want to touch it with a bargepole.
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co-op said:
But the EU/ECB seem obsessed by absolute compliance with a policy that clearly cannot work, it simply won't deliver them their money, or even a small percentage of it. All it will do is destroy the Greek economy. Why? What's in it for the EU/ECB?
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The Bundesbank was never a great fan of the Euro either. It only went along with it after stamping its mark on every single facet of the Euro but every now and then it still hesitates. And then the German-French pact broke its own rules by lending to much money to southern countries because that suited their export dependent economies.
Anyway, once Greece leaves, Portugal or Ireland may well follow. Germany will soon after.

littlebabyjesus said:
But it's also politically impossible for them to allow the euro to fracture.

Isn't that the contradiction in the position - having Greece there as a warning so that you can wag your finger at your electorate is all very well, but they also don't want Greece to be Greece.
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It may be "politically" "impossible" for the euro to fracture, but I reckon the Bundesbank would make it an "economic necessity". Right now, I'm already focusing on what happens next, the consequences to Greece, Portugal et al and global economy at large. It will kaboom everywhere.

youngian said:
It partly because of the treaty nature of ECB which has no nation or direct political control and was set up to mirror the Bundesbank. The Germans do not want too much of a precedence to turn it into a politically directed central bank anymore then it has been forced too (or more accurately that should be moving the political direction of the ECB that is not to the liking of the former DM zone countries). Secondly there is the CDU's obsession with moral hazard which is misplaced as there is no desire for Ireland, Spain or Italy to suddenly identify itself as a sub-prime nation with a sovereign debt crisis. Thirdly former Eastern block countries and Finland that faced post Soviet economic crisis and weathered them without bailouts (although dishonest given the amount og US aid that went their way) have little time for bailing out the Greeks.

This structure was the German price for giving up the DM. Paris and Rome believed they should get on with forming the Euro and work on the Germans later down the line to see the wisdom of a more interventionist bank. Some hope, and I cannot see Southern European desires for debt mutualisation and fiscal transfers ever coming about. Perhaps a fudged compromised version will slowly develop but the Euro has worked out well for Germany. It was forged in their image with a crafty non-inflationary devaluation that made their goods even cheaper and provide plenty of cheap credit for their banks to lend out to poorer Eurozone countries to buy even more BMWs on the never-never.
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This. I read a great article series about the euro on Spiegel online some 3 or four years ago. I'll try and find it again.

ETA:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...ow-a-good-idea-became-a-tragedy-a-790138.html (part 1)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...euro-zone-ignored-its-own-rules-a-790333.html (part 2)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...re-left-for-the-common-currency-a-790568.html (part 3)
 
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co-op said:
I still can't work out why the ECB/EU end of the troika have been so pigheaded about this entire crisis. The IMF policy sort of makes sense - i.e. demand the usual 'politically acceptable' solution, i.e. mass austerity, drive down wages, increase profitability etc etc "revitalise" the economy and then pay off the debt with the extra tax revenues. As this policy has obviously failed spectacularly, the IMF have now changed their tune and are talking about write-offs.

But the EU/ECB seem obsessed by absolute compliance with a policy that clearly cannot work, it simply won't deliver them their money, or even a small percentage of it. All it will do is destroy the Greek economy. Why? What's in it for the EU/ECB?
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In my opinion, the Troika may not be too upset to see Greece leave the EZ. They have been preparing for some time. Once they have a credible plan in place to deal with the fallout Syriza (and more importantly the Greek people) are pretty well fucked.

There are hardliners in the EZ who would want Spain and Portugal to go as well, leaving a core of EU countries willing to adhere to the same monetary and fiscal rules within a reformed and reconstituted Euro.

More importantly it would act as a warning to anyone else thinking of following the same route as Greece by electing an anti-austerity Government.

The message would be clear: “Shape up or ship out. And if you want to see what the consequences of shipping out are then have a look at Greece” which, by then would have descended into absolute chaos.
 
happie chappie said:
There are hardliners in the EZ who would want Spain and Portugal to go as well, leaving a core of EU countries willing to adhere to the same monetary and fiscal rules within a reformed and reconstituted Euro.
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the problem with doing that, is that it would mean fucking off the old eastern bloc countries too. Which, while it might well make sense economically, would be an unmitigated disaster politically, so it can't be allowed to happen. this is the central contradiction for the euro now, it was meant to lead to an ever closer union, but will actually end up splitting it apart far more than any other piece of business.
 
Riklet said:
The Euro isnt going anywhere. No time soon anyway.

Even if Greece leaves the EZ, whats to stop them using the Euro anyway, like Montenegro or Kosovo do?

Would this be completely unrealistic?
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Yes it would be unrealistic.

Greece would need the approval of the ECB and EZ which is hardly likely to be granted as they would have just pushed them out of the Euro.

Montenegro uses the Euro with the tacit approval of the EU as it is an accession country hoping to join the Union and hence the Euro.

Unless you’re implying Greece fires up its own presses and print lots of Euros in defiance of the ECB in which case they would soon become a pariah state with an essentially forged currency.
 
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On the printing Euros front - if Greece prints its own Euros, highly unlikely as that is, without Eurozone consent then they would not be Euros.

As a unit of exchange they would most likely be worth much less and no counterparty would accept them under a Euro denominated contract or debt obligation at the same rate as a true Euro.
 
belboid said:
the problem with doing that, is that it would mean fucking off the old eastern bloc countries too. Which, while it might well make sense economically, would be an unmitigated disaster politically, so it can't be allowed to happen. this is the central contradiction for the euro now, it was meant to lead to an ever closer union, but will actually end up splitting it apart far more than any other piece of business.
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I agree it would be problematic but not impossible.

In the end economics trumps politics. A smaller EU with viable and stable single currency would, in many peoples’ eyes, be better than a larger EU beset by constant financial crisis.

As for the former Eastern Bloc they would be allowed to remain in if they at least showed some willingness to meet the fiscal rules at some point in the future. Provided they played ball the deadlines could be extended ad infinitum - effectively keeping them in the Euro for ever and a day.

If any were ever tempted to flout the rules they would in all probability be frightened off by what happened to Greece.

You’re right that there are internal contradictions within the Euro which meant it was destined to implode from the outset. It should never have been created, at least not in the form it was with the members it had.

But we are where we are.
 
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Even if the Portuguese government thought of doing the, until Tsipras, unthinkable thing of daring to express as much as a doubt about the hole that the Euro really is, it would then have to deal with the consequences of Fitch et al downgrading its credit rating. Freedom of speech, out, challenging the narrative, out, pointing out absurdities, out. It's the stuff of madness how governments are meant to govern inside the euro.

ETA: No need to point out the obvious. I'm well aware the ruling party in Portugal atm is a bunch that has its own iconic Thatcher in the person of the current president, Cavaco Silva and the opposition, like Labour, has fallen short of its name a very long time ago.
 
MochaSoul said:
Even if the Portuguese government thought of doing the, until Tsipras, unthinkable thing of daring to express as much as a doubt about the hole that the Euro really is, it would then have to deal with the consequences of Fitch et al downgrading its credit rating. Freedom of speech, out, challenging the narrative, out, pointing out absurdities, out. It's the stuff of madness how governments are meant to govern inside the euro.

ETA: No need to point out the obvious. I'm well aware the ruling party in Portugal atm is a bunch that has its own iconic Thatcher in the person of the current president, Cavaco Silva and the opposition, like Labour, has fallen short of its name a very long time ago.
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Yes - it’s a Faustian Bargain.

Join the Euro and get at least a modicum of economic security.

In return hand over your country to an unelected group of bureaucrats and capitalists.
 
happie chappie said:
Yes it would be unrealistic.

Greece would need the approval of the ECB and EZ which is hardly likely to be granted as they would have just pushed them out of the Euro.

Montenegro uses the Euro with the tacit approval of the EU as it is an accession country hoping to join the Union and hence the Euro.

Unless you’re implying Greece fires up its own presses and print lots of Euros in defiance of the ECB in which case they would soon become a pariah state with an essentially forged currency.
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Recent article on this very subject:
Faced with shuttered banks and ATMs all but drained of cash, but with most of its citizens saying they would rather stay in the eurozone than revert to the drachma, could Greece simply decide to print its own euro notes?

Since the currency’s introduction in 2002, all euro banknotes have been produced jointly by the national central banks of the eurozone area according to a strict schedule. According to the ECB, each national bank takes charge of – and pays for – a fixed proportion of the total annual production of one or more denominations of notes, which are then shipped to their destinations as required.

Aside from moral and legal questions that would undoubtedly arise if Greece were to go ahead and print more of its own euros, however, there is another issue that makes this scenario highly unlikely: according to the ECB’s website, the Greek press is only set up to print €10 notes. It would need to print tens of billions of those to produce enough money to meet its needs.
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/06/return-drachma-greece-print-own-euros
 
A joke, doesn't even begin to describe the debate on the state of the nation in the Portuguese parliament this afternoon. It's as if Greece was not actually happening. "Confidence in the European project and confidence in the monetary union", just now from the prime minister.
 
I found this earlier but didn't think it was worth putting up but now the writer is being investigated. Anyway, the following quote by Thanos Tzimeros a leader of a little pro-business party called "Recreate Greece":

We will wait until 08:30 on Friday morning for them to give their latest proposal. If we find out that it is still a scam, we will go down to the streets (you will be notified of where and at what time), we enter the Maximos Mansion, the Ministries and kick them out. The joke has gone too far. They will not make our children live in a Soviet regime to maintain their stalinist-fascist fantasies and their whores that get paid without doing any work.

Friday morning, they sign or we rip apart at the stitches (I think this is a phrase for when they rip off military patches from a soldier)
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http://www.avgi.gr/article/5696385/...biaio-praxikopima-gia-anatropi-tis-kubernisis

When I checked earlier, the post was still on his facebook page.
 
not happy about the general feeling expressed here, ie Its all the fault of Germany
So sorry but the same peeps who claim that "democracy" means they don't have to pay off debt accumulated via previously democratically elected governments..
Can you spot the logical inconsistency in that?
Curiously enough the French are not snivelling about how much Germany owes them as they too were invaded
Whatever people may think of Merkel - personally I love her, not in a pervy way mind - she and her country have been thru astonishingly harsh times - please have a look at what German workers have been paid over the last few years and then honestly say they have not taken pain?
Why should someone in Vilnius for example pay for someone in Greece to write off their debts while they struggle thru 5 foot deep snow in the winter?
Or why should Bulgarians who have more refugees per head then Greece has ever had, pay them to sit on their fat arses?
Unless you have actually pledged to put money into the mental scheme to crowd finance Greece - if you have, it was a mad move - why should THOSE people, all MUCH POORER than the average Greek, subsidise them?
Greedy stupid and misguided, every govt the greek people have voted for has been absolutely shit at dealing with reality
If I were Merkel, I'd offer to buy ALL greek debt at 30c in the Euro, then tell em to fuck off
do it on yer own
Their vile blackmail really is so shit, they gotta fuck off
This Not the way do deal with those you claim you want to share a currency with
that can only be based on trust
I trust them like some typical twat trying to sell pills on a street corner
 
quick Q
if they were so badly represented by all those that went before:-
why are none of them facing charges?
Why are they not pursuing Goldmans, so obviously complicit in the debt hide bollocks?
Liars
Would not elect any of em to run a fucking village fete
 
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