Greek elections

[brogdale]

Interim agreement agreed to according to Graunid

So they're not kicked out of the flat, but still paying the same rent...for another 6 months?

I'd be waking the dog up.

 

[brogdale]

So they're not kicked out of the flat, but still paying the same rent...for another 6 months?

I'd be waking the dog up.

...maybe...

 

[brogdale]

So, 4 months...and what looks suspiciously like close supervision from the troika.

2m ago19:59

An agreement has been reached but analysts in Athens are already describing the concessions made by the Greek government as “politically poisonous,” Helena Smith reports.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ government will almost certainly face fierce reaction from militants in his radical left Syriza party and from the populist right-wing Anel, his junior partner in the governing coalition. “Very heavy concessions have been made, politically poisonous concessions for the government,” Pavlos Tzimas, the veteran political commentator, has just told SKAI news. “It’s going to be a crash test on the domestic front for the government,” the television channels says. “The big question now is what reforms the government is going to agree to,” Takis Hadzis, another commentator, has also told Skai news.

Any reforms will have to be endorsed by the Greek parliament.

 

[brogdale]

4m ago20:12

Lagarde:

We look at it as a set of stages and timeline by which work has to be done. We are very pleased that work can begin.

The troika will look at the list of reforms which has to be submitted by Greece by Monday night. Assessment by the institutions on Tuesday.

Pleased that we have asserted that we are in control.

 

[J Ed]

So is that it? Just another round of Hollande-style austerity?

 

[brogdale]

So is that it? Just another round of Hollande-style austerity?

Have you had the chance to read any Streeck? If not, tonight might just be a good time to have a look.

http://newleftreview.org/II/71/wolfgang-streeck-the-crises-of-democratic-capitalism

...mainstream economics has become obsessed with the ‘irresponsibility’ of opportunistic politicians who cater to an economically uneducated electorate by interfering with otherwise efficient markets, in pursuit of objectives—such as full employment and social justice—that truly free markets would in the long run deliver anyway, but must fail to deliver when distorted by politics. Economic crises, according to standard theories of ‘public choice’, essentially stem from market-distorting political interventions for social objectives. [3] In this view, the right kind of intervention sets markets free from political interference; the wrong, market-distorting kind derives from an excess of democracy; more precisely, from democracy being carried over by irresponsible politicians into the economy, where it has no business. Not many today would go as far as Hayek, who in his later years advocated abolishing democracy as we know it in defence of economic freedom and civil liberty. Still, the cantus firmus of current neo-institutionalist economic theory is thoroughly Hayekian. To work properly, capitalism requires a rule-bound economic policy, with protection of markets and property rights constitutionally enshrined against discretionary political interference; independent regulatory authorities; central banks, firmly protected from electoral pressures; and international institutions, such as the European Commission or the European Court of Justice, that do not have to worry about popular re-election.

 

[J Ed]

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble was less upbeat. He said, according to Reuters:

The Greeks certainly will have a difficult time explaining the deal to their voters.

Not even capable of being gracious in victory...

 

[Threshers_Flail]

So why the capitulation? They had a mandate to play hard ball and have backtracked fairly sharpish.

Or do they want to enter the wilderness with PASOK and hand Greece over to Golden Dawn?

 

[pocketscience]

Not even capable of being gracious in victory...

There are no victors. Horrible as he is, Schaeble's faces just the same pressure in Germany having to explain further bailouts to his taxpayers who know they'll never see their money again.

 

[J Ed]

There are no victors.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

If Syriza have capitulated there will be victors. Golden Dawn for one.

 

[Ole]

Varoufakis claims that the agreement will 'no longer force Greece into recessionary conditions'. Read the full Eurogroup statement here.

BBC:

The statement says that the Eurogroup will take into account "Greek policy priorities", which Mr Varoufakis says makes them "co-authors" and gives the Greeks some flexibility that the new Greek government wanted after six years of a crippling recession that helped sweep it into power.

And that is key. Did the Greek government wrestle back enough control with this agreement to satisfy the Greek people?

Notably, the Eurogroup statement also says:

"The Greek authorities commit to refrain from any rollback of measures and unilateral changes to the policies and structural reforms that would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or financial stability, as assessed by the institutions."

This means that Greece can set its reforms, but within fiscal parameters.

Important concession

The statement also says that Greece's primary fiscal surplus (budget position excluding debt interest payments) for 2015, which was set at 3% of GDP, now can respond to economic conditions. This means that if the economy were to worsen, then Greece has some leeway in meeting it.

Mr Varoufakis says that it means Greece is no longer not forced into recessionary conditions, so he clocks that as an important concession. He also says that they wanted the overall constraint on their fiscal position "in a sense".

...

Notably, the next step is to see whether the Greek list will be (entirely) agreed on Monday or if we face the prospect of a fourth Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday to continue the Greek debate.

Then, there's the end of April and the end of June to look ahead to as the next two key dates since the Greek issue will not be resolved next week in any case.

 

[treelover]

There is a phrase for what Germany is seeking to do to Greece: a Carthaginian peace. It dates back to the Punic wars when Rome emerged victorious in its long struggle with Carthage but refused to allow its opponent the chance of an honourable surrender. Instead, it enforced a brutal settlement, burning Carthage to the ground and enslaving those inhabitants it did not massacre.

A Carthaginian peace is what is being offered to Alexis Tsipras. On Thursday, the Greek prime minister made it clear that he was willing to see the white flag of surrender flutter over Athens. He accepted that he would have to swallow most of the conditions demanded of him by Greece’s eurozone partners but asked for a few concessions to sugar the pill.
Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister, immediately slapped Tsipras down. What Greece was proposing was unacceptable, Schaeuble said. Unless the Germans are bluffing, and there’s nothing to suggest that they are, it leaves Greece with a binary choice: abject surrender or going nuclear.

Abject surrender means that Tsipras would have to explain to the Greek people why he was abandoning the policies on which he won the election less than a month ago. Going nuclear would involve capital controls, fresh elections on a “who governs Greece” basis and possible exit from the single currency.

Larry Eliot In the Guardian.

 

[NoXion]

Fuck it Alexis, why not "go nuclear"? Painful as it might be, it strikes me as better than capitulating to the Troika, betraying Syriza voters and handing Golden Dawn a victory in one move.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

go nuclear and blame the Germans thats why he lined up wih Anel in the first place

 

[yield]

Any chance of the Spanish general election happening before the end of the year?

 

[brogdale]

Any chance of the Spanish general election happening before the end of the year?

Constitutionally it has to take place before xmas. But any of the Spanish electorate who are swayed by Turrión were yesterday, told by the euro-bankers, what the outcome of their choice will be.

In the post-democratic consolidation states all that remains is the 'democratic' choice of debt-collectors.

 

[brogdale]

The rightwing orthodoxy that dominates thinking in Brussels has asserted itself over the hapless Greeks. A deal that allows the eurozone policymakers, the International Monetary Fund and the government of Athens to keep talking next week is the first stage in a clampdown on anti-austerity sentiment.

That much was clear from the statements coming out of Brussels, not least those from Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s veteran finance minister, who indulged himself with some patronising comments to show where the power lies. “Being in government is a date with reality, and reality is often not as nice as a dream,” was the quip he delivered with a smile, one that is usually omitted from diplomacy school.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/20/greece-deal-first-step-on-the-road-back-to-austerity

"You start wearing the blue and brown
You're working for the..."

 

[Diamond]

I do think it's a bit stupid that the Greeks have until Monday, basically the weekend, to cobble together a plan that satisfies their voters and the troika without deviating from the basic principle of austerity.

It's clear that they had no such plan in the first place so to come up with a set of integrated, sustainable, viable far reaching reforms to a whole nation's economy in 72 hours is a bit bonkers.

I suspect that this is a result of the eurocrats and the Germans being thoroughly pissed off by the grandstanding, vague nonsense of the Greek finance minister who they want to punish for his rather juvenile insubordination.

Pity that the Greek public are being sold down the river by both their government and the EU as a result...

 

[Diamond]

The problem for the Greeks from the off is that they elected a government who offered a mandate that they could not possibly deliver - stay in the Euro and get rid of austerity.

It was never going to be possible.

Syriza look to me like an increasingly irresponsible party.

What is interesting from a cynical perspective tho is that the prime minister is happy for the finance minister to be the main man in all this, rather hiding behind him in fact and helped by Varoufakis' appetite for the limelight. It rather looks like Varoufakis is being set up to be the fall guy.

 

[free spirit]

What is interesting from a cynical perspective tho is that the prime minister is happy for the finance minister to be the main man in all this, rather hiding behind him in fact and helped by Varoufakis' appetite for the limelight. It rather looks like Varoufakis is being set up to be the fall guy.

Varoufakis does have a 30+ year track record as an economist, so it's probably pretty sensible for him to lead these discussions when he knows more about economics than virtually anyone else sat around the table.

I hope that he's going to come back with a deficit reduction plan based around econommic growth and taxation as opposed to further counter productive cuts.

 

[Diamond]

Varoufakis does have a 30+ year track record as an economist, so it's probably pretty sensible for him to lead these discussions when he knows more about economics than virtually anyone else sat around the table.

I hope that he's going to come back with a deficit reduction plan based around econommic growth and taxation as opposed to further counter productive cuts.

He's an academic economist. He has no practical experience of government whatsoever.

 

[free spirit]

He's an academic economist. He has no practical experience of government whatsoever.

yes, but he has more knowledge of economics than virtually any other politician in the EU.

Given the complete mess the professional politicians have made of the situation, it would seem like a good idea to have someone involved who's actually been studying the field in academic detail for 30+ years.

All auterity has done is to wipe 25% off the greek economy, and in so doing, massively worsen the greek's debt and deficit to GDP ratio. That's not a solution to the problem, that's the cause of the problem.

 

[Diamond]

yes, but he has more knowledge of economics than virtually any other politician in the EU.

Given the complete mess the professional politicians have made of the situation, it would seem like a good idea to have someone involved who's actually been studying the field in academic detail for 30+ years.

All auterity has done is to wipe 25% off the greek economy, and in so doing, massively worsen the greek's debt and deficit to GDP ratio. That's not a solution to the problem, that's the cause of the problem.

I doubt very much that he's the most brilliant economist out of all the politicians in the whole of the EU.

Although I also agree that pure austerity has been demonstrably shown to be wrong, I think the idea that because Varoufakis is an academic, he'll be effective on a political/diplomatic level is ridiculous.

If you think politicians are somewhat removed from the real world then tenured academics are a million more miles further from practical reality.

To think that someone who has spent 30+ years ensconced in their ivory towers could descend from them and negotiate effectively, make promises that they can deliver on and generally manage a real-world situation to the common good is lunacy.

 

[free spirit]

I doubt very much that he's the most brilliant economist out of all the politicians in the whole of the EU.

Although I also agree that pure austerity has been demonstrably shown to be wrong, I think the idea that because Varoufakis is an academic, he'll be effective on a political/diplomatic level is ridiculous.

If you think politicians are somewhat removed from the real world then tenured academics are a million more miles further from practical reality.

To think that someone who has spent 30+ years ensconced in their ivory towers could descend from them and negotiate effectively, make promises that they can deliver on and generally manage a real-world situation to the common good is lunacy.

well, he can't possible make more of a mess of it than the professional politicians can he?

I say again, 25% reduction in Greek GDP as a direct result of the policies forced on Greece and meekly accepted by the Greek negotiators, all done by the professional politicians.

History will determine whether or not he's a great economist - this situation certainly requires someone to emerge as Keynes did in the 30s who really understands how economics works at a fundamental level, rather than yet another idiot politician who thinks government budgets should be treated the same as household budgets / credit card spending.

 

[RubyToogood]

I doubt very much that he's the most brilliant economist out of all the politicians in the whole of the EU.

Although I also agree that pure austerity has been demonstrably shown to be wrong, I think the idea that because Varoufakis is an academic, he'll be effective on a political/diplomatic level is ridiculous.

If you think politicians are somewhat removed from the real world then tenured academics are a million more miles further from practical reality.

To think that someone who has spent 30+ years ensconced in their ivory towers could descend from them and negotiate effectively, make promises that they can deliver on and generally manage a real-world situation to the common good is lunacy.

I don't think he has been sitting in an ivory tower though, has he? Didn't he do a lot of work for Steam on their internal economics?

 

[RubyToogood]

yet another idiot politician who thinks government budgets should be treated the same as household budgets / credit card spending.

I don't think any of them actually think that though, do they? It's just a soundbite for the masses to cover up the usual kleptocracy.

 

[butchersapron]

He's been involved in real-life politics, high level state governing style politics etc for over a decade.

To reduce the issue down to the career path of individuals is a facile misreading of the situation though.

 

[free spirit]

I don't think any of them actually think that though, do they? It's just a soundbite for the masses to cover up the usual kleptocracy.

I'm pretty sure that this is actually the level that a lot of them think about it on, it's the only way I can see that austerity can be justified as a means of reducing deficits - ie decoupling the impact of those spending reductions on the GDP, unemployment, tax receipts etc. as if government spending has no impact on those factors on the income side of the equation.

 

[phildwyer]

I reckon they've been bought off.